【作者】 沈欣；

【导师】 李昌宇；

【作者基本信息】 东北农业大学 ， 农业遥感与土地利用， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 粮食物流园区是现代物流业近几年出现的新型业态,是以粮食物流产业为基础,利用现代物流技术形成的粮食物流枢纽中心区,它将粮食仓储、运输、加工、销售等环节有机结合在一起,集粮油批发、竞价交易、信息交流、仓储联运、加工配送等功能于一体,在粮食物流体系中发挥举足轻重的作用。发展粮食物流园区,对于提高粮食流通效率,降低粮食流通成本,保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义,也是落实国家《粮食现代物流发展规划》和《国务院关于印发物流业调整和振兴规划的通知》等文件精神的重要举措。以国内外相关理论为基础,运用文献分析、定量分析与定性分析相结合、动态分析和静态分析相结合和比较分析的研究方法,在深入分析粮食供求、流量流向、粮食物流节点通道分布等粮食物流现状的基础上,剖析了粮食物流存在的管理体制和机制不健全、四散化程度低、信息化建设水平薄弱等主要问题,考察并借鉴了加拿大、澳大利亚、英国的粮食物流以及日本、德国物流园区发展状况和经验;阐述了粮食物流园区建设现状、功能规划、选址、土地利用以及其他基础性要求等粮食物流园区总体规划框架;运用系统布置设计法进行粮食物流园区功能结构布局;针对园区综合管理需求,设计粮食物流园区综合管理系统,论述了应用支撑系统建设、终端系统建设以及系统运行维护等问题;建立粮食物流园区综合评价指标体系,运用人工神经网络进行评价,借助MATLAB软件对建立的BP神经网络进行训练和仿真;从政府和企业两个层面提出发展粮食物流园区的推进对策。粮食物流园区具有集约化、一体化、集聚性等基本特征,可分为货运服务型、生产服务型、商贸服务型、综合服务型等类型。粮食物流园区通过地理集中和粮食产业组织的优化,通过企业之间的网络关系和园区内企业文化和环境的根植性产生了生产成本优势、资源获取优势、园区扩张优势和区域营销优势等竞争优势。全国粮食流向和流量使得粮食物流具有时效性、专业性、流向制约性、政策性等特点,形成全国六大主要跨省散粮物流通道,分别是东北主产区玉米、大豆和稻谷流出通道,黄淮海主产区小麦流出通道,长江中下游稻谷流出和玉米流入通道,华东沿海主销区粮食流入通道,华南主销区粮食流入通道,以及京津主销区粮食流入通道。这些现实国情对我国粮食物流园区的选址和功能定位具有重要的影响。目前粮食主销区的东部沿海经济区和主产区的黄河中游经济区粮食物流园区分布较多,其中江苏省兴建粮食物流园区步伐最大。国内粮食物流园区呈现了投资额高、占地规模较大、地方政府投入热情较高的局面,经营开发模式多为政府主导型模式。然而粮食物流园区存在规划布局不合理,资源浪费严重,盲目建设,功能定位不明确,空置率高,政府行政干预过多,运作违背经济规律的诸多问题,迫切需要系统性的粮食物流园区规划建设理论指导。国外发达国家粮食物流以及园区发展证明了政府的统筹规划,大力发展第三方物流,加快粮食物流信息化建设,加强粮食物流园区建设是可供借鉴的成功经验。为了完善粮食物流园区的发展,政府应做到合理规划科学布局,选择合适的园区开发方式,制定土地税收等优惠政策,改善融投资环境。园区运营企业应明确战略定位,整合服务功能,提高经营理念,注重体制创新。粮食物流园区的规划建立在需求预测的基础上。物流需求预测可以使用时间序列、人工神经网络、灰色系统模型进行定量分析。应用了灰色系统理论以哈大齐为背景进行物流需求预测,与原始数据拟合效果较好,预测具有一定的准确性。粮食物流园区除了具备仓储、运输、配送、装卸、搬运、包装、流通加工、信息处理等基本功能,咨询、结算等物流延伸服务功能和工商、税务、海关、货代、金融等配套服务以外,也可以具备批发、期货交割、甚至加工生产等功能,把粮食物流园区变成粮食产业链的孵化基地。在粮食物流园区内部功能结构布局时,可以运用系统布置设计法等方法进行设施布局和流程设计。以物流对象、物流量、物流作业路线、辅助服务部门、物流作业技术水平为基础输入要素,将作业单位间物流与非物流的相互关系分析为主线,通过定性分析与定量分析有机结合,以图表和图形模型分析为手段,对粮食物流园区功能模块进行规划布局,得到功能区的综合位置关系图。在德尔菲法的基础上,运用熵值法对各项指标进行赋权,通过综合计算对物流园区功能备选方案进行评价,选出综合评价最高的方案。能否具有先进的信息平台是衡量物流园区信息化的重要标准。粮食物流园区综合管理系统的设计开发,应以园区综合管理需求为基础进行园区综合管理信息系统结构和功能的设计,通过应用支撑系统建设、终端系统建设以及信息系统运行维护等三个主要方面来实现园区的信息化、智能化。缺乏科学评价方法是粮食物流园区发展的障碍之一。设计评价体系应遵循科学性、可操作性、系统性、全面性原则,根据粮食物流园区的自身特点,选取园区投资与规模水平、园区建设情况、物流服务水平、园区经济效益、园区社会效益等5个一级指标,园区规模适应性、园区投资强度等17个二级指标建立评价指标体系。反向传播模型是人工神经网络的一个典型模型,适于系统多因素共同作用下的综合评价。将粮食物流园区综合评价神经网络的结构确定为17个输入层神经元,8个隐层神经元,1个输出神经元的网络结构,采集8个样本运用MATLAB7.0软件进行训练,利用sim函数对训练后的网络进行仿真,验证了方法的可靠性。目前我国粮食物流处于初级阶段,粮食物流园区规划与建设的实践刚刚开始,在实际操作过程中,存在规划不科学、设施布局不合理、运营管理不规范、资源整合水平较低等问题,尚缺少比较成熟的理论作指导。粮食物流园区理论与实践的不断深入,将促进粮食物流园区的不断发展,为国家粮食安全与高效流通做出积极的贡献。更多还原

【Abstract】 Grain Logistics Park is a new emerging format of modern logistics industry in recent years, and is logistics hub of grain logitics facilitating with the modern logistics tecnology based on grain logistics industry, which combine the links of grain storage, transportation, processing and sales together, and integrate grain and oil wholesale, auction, information exchange, storage, transport, processing, distribution and other functions in one to play a pivotal role in the grain logistics system. The development of grain logistics park is of great significance for improving the efficiency of grain circulation, reducing the cost of grain distribution, and ensuring national grain security, also the implementation of the national "Grain Logistics Development Plan" and "Advice on the Issuance of the Logistics Industry Restructuring and Revitalization Plan from State Council "Based on the relative domestic and foreign theory , with the research methods of literature analysis , the combination of quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis, combination of dynamic and static analysis and comparative analysis, the major issues on grian logistics of unsound management system and mechanism, weak infrastructure low level of information construction were proposed with in-depth analysis of grain logistics status such as supply and demand, volume and flow , and distribution of logistics nodes and access of grain; The main plan framework of current construction status, functional planning, site selection, land use and other basic requirements about grain logistics park was described; The the function structure layout was designed with the method of systematic layout planning; Integrated management system on grain logistics park was designed against the integrated management requirements of Park, and the application support system construction, the terminal system construction and system operation and maintenance issues were discussed; A comprehensive evaluation index system on grain logistics park was established, and evaluated with artificial neural network, and by using MATLAB software, the established BP neural network was trained and simulated; Countermeasures to promote development of grain logistics park were put forward from the government and enterprises with the experience investigating and learning from grain logistics development of Canada, Australia, the UK, as well as logistics parks development of Japan and Germany.With the basic characteristics such as intensivity, integration,and clustering, grain logistics park would be divided into type of freight service , production service , business service and integrated service. By geographic concentration and grain optimization of industrial organization Grain Logistics Park, competitive advantages of production cost ,resources procurement, park expansion, regional marketing would be produced through the network of relations between enterprises and embeddedness of the environment and corporate culture in the park. National grain flow volume and direction made grain logistics with the features of timeliness, professionalism, flow constraints, policy-orientation, and formed the six major cross-provinces bulk grain logistics channels, respectively, corn, soybeans and rice outflow channel of northeast main producing areas , wheat outflow channel of Yellow-Huang ocean main producing areas, rice and maize outflow channel of the Yangtze River, grain inflow channel of east coast main sale area , grain inflow channel of south coast main sale area and grain inflow channel of Beijing-Tianjin Main Sale area. The current conditions on China would have an important influence on postitioning of location and function of grain logistics park .At present, there were more grain logistics park distribution in eastern coastal economic zones of main grain sales areas and Yellow River economic zone of the main grain producing areas than other areas and especially Jiangsu Province, of which the pace of construction of the grain logistics park was largest. And omestic grain logistics park presented situation of high investment, large-scale area and high enthusiasm in the local governments, and government-led business development models were common. However, there were many problems on the grain logistics park such as unreasonable layout, serious waste of resources, blind construction, unclear function positioning, vacancy rates, excessive administrative intervention, and operations against the economic law, thus an systematic planning and construction theoretical guidance for grain logistics park is absolutely needed.The development of grain logistics and the park in developed countries would verify that the government’s overall planning ,to develop third party logistics, to speed up construction of grain logistics informationization and to enhance grain logistics park was the successful experience for reference. In order to improve development of grain logistics park, the Government should make rational planning scientific layout, select the appropriate park development methods, development land tax and other incentives, improve the financial environment for investment. Park operating companies should identify clear strategic positioning, integrate services functions, improve business philosophy and focus on system innovation.Planning of grain logistics park was based on forecast demand. Quantitative Logistics forecast demand can be analysized with time sequence forecasting, artificial neural network, and gray system model. Grey system theory was applied to logistics demand forecast for the background of Hadaqi, and well fitted with the original data to predict with some accuracy.Grain Logistics Park In addition to storage, transportation, distribution, loading and unloading, handling, packaging, distribution processing, information processing and other basic functions, consulting, billing, logistics and business extension services, taxation, customs, freight forwarding, financial and other support services outside Can also have wholesale and futures delivery, and even processing and other functions and changing the grain logistics park into a grain industry chain incubator.When making layout of internal functions structure of grain Logistics Park , the systematic layout planning method may be used for facility layout and process design. Logistics product, amount ,operating route, support services and technical level were input as basic elements, with the main line between logistics and non-unit relationship, through organic combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, using chart and graphical model as a means, grain logistics park layout function modules were designed and integrated location diagram about functional areas defined.In the Delphi method, based on the method of entropy on various indicators of empowerment, the most comprehensive evaluation of the program was selected from the alternative functional areas solutions after integrated calculation.Advanced information platform would be an important criterion to measure the logistics park’s informationization. To design and develop integrated management system of grain logistics park, structure and function design of integrated management information system would be based on the integrated park management needs, and achieve park’s informationization and intelligent in three main aspects as application support system construction, terminal system building and operation and maintenance of information systems.Lack of scientific evaluation method woulde be obstacle to the development of grain logistics parks. Design of evaluation system should follow the scientific, operational, systematic, comprehensive principle, according to its own characteristics of grain logistics park, select five first-level indicators such as scale of investment and the level of parks, park construction, logistics services level, park economic benefits and social benefits, and 17 secondary indicators such as size of the park adaptability, intensity of park investment , to establish evaluation index system. Back-propagation neural network model is a typical model, suitable for the system under the action of multiple factors evaluation. Comprehensive Evaluation neural network structure of grain logistics park was determined as network of 17 input layer neurons, 8 hidden neurons, one output neuron, and eight samples were collected to be trained with MATLAB7.0 software, then trained n network were simulated by use of sim function to verify the method.Currently in the initial stage of China’s grain logistics, grain logistics park planning and construction practice would be an amergence, in actual operation, there are some issues on unscientific planning, irrational facilities layout, unstandardized operational management and low level of resource integration, and lack of the guidance of more mature theories. Deepening of the theory and practice of grain logistics park would promote the continuous development of grain logistics park, and make a positive contribution to efficient flow and security of national grain.更多还原