【作者】 葛芳；

【导师】 张国伍； 张仲义；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 系统工程， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 城市交通是社会经济发展的必然产物,也是城市赖以生存的重要基础设施之一,它作为城市动态大系统中的一个重要组成部分,是城市整体发展中不可缺少的物质条件和基础产业,社会经济的快速发展和出行观念的变化,使得城市交通需求与供给之间的矛盾越来越突出。具体表现为交通拥挤程度和交通事故的不断增加、交通带来的环境污染日益严重,要想从根本上缓解城市交通问题,优先发展公共交通是目前各大城市行之有效的途径之一,公交优先政策和策略对大城市公共交通的发展起着推动作用,大力发展城市公共交通,实施“公交优先”战略,是有效地解决城市交通问题的重要举措。本论文作者基于长期以来所从事的城市公共交通方面的研究与实践,经过查阅大量文献资料、进行调研工作后,通过反复研究、分析、对比,确定本论文选题及研究内容：以大城市公共交通为研究对象,对引起城市交通拥堵问题的主要原因进行分析,通过分析,把对大城市地面公交优先技术策略的理论与实证研究作为本论文的研究内容,运用Petri网理论,在设定有公交专用道(路)的条件下,对公交时间优先进行研究；并对公交优先系统的有效性进行评价；在研究和撰写论文中,完成的主要工作内容：首先进行大量的文献资料查阅和调研,对国内外大城市公交优先技术策略研究和发展现状进行了总结,综合阐述了国内外学者对公交优先技术策略理论研究的成果,在此基础上,运用系统工程理论与方法、系统分析法、定性分析与定量分析相结合的方法、Petri网理论、证据理论和突变理论,对大城市公交优先技术策略模型进行研究,基于Petri网理论,构建了大城市地面公交优先技术策略的图形化模型,并对模型性能进行分析；其后,基于证据理论和突变理论,对大城市地面公交优先技术策略进行综合评价,确定并建立综合评价指标及子指标,将定性与定量指标纳入同一模型中,综合评价公交优先系统的有效性；最后,以北京市公交线网作为实证研究,提出公交线网调整优化等建议。本论文的创新成果为：1.运用系统工程理论与方法,对我国大城市交通系统进行分析,特别是对大城市公共交通系统发展的技术策略进行系统地分析和研究,采取定性分析与定量分析相结合的方法,进行大城市公交优先系统的综合评价,论证优先发展公共交通是解决城市交通问题的必由之路。2.基于Petri网理论,结合我国大城市公交优先发展策略,构建大城市地面公交优先技术策略模型。利用Petri网具有并行、并发、同步的特点,研究Petri网建模方法,刻画、分析出大城市地面公交优先技术策略的时空优先的道路交通全过程,通过将变迁分为时间变迁和瞬时变迁,采用禁止弧和赋予各弧不同的优先权,建立体现公交优先技术策略的GSPN图形化模型,并运用数学方法分析系统的性能指标,并对现有公交优先技术策略和非公交优先技术策略模型指标进行比较,得出公交优先系统有效性的策略,为实现公交优先策略提供理论依据。3.基于证据理论(Dempster-Shafer Theory)和突变理论(Catastrophe Theory),对我国大城市公交优先系统综合评价方法进行研究,提出对我国大城市公交优先系统量化的综合评价指标。通过反复比较、探讨和征询有关专家的意见,确定综合评价指标及子指标,根据指标和子指标的重要性,结合专家的可信度确定公交优先系统综合评价方法,对专家组中不同专家的经验和偏好,用证据理论合成规则对评价指标的基本概率赋值进行合成,将不同专家的评价进行融合,获得子指标的评价值,然后通过突变理论将评价指标及子指标作为控制变量进行综合评价,可避免人为确定权重的主观性,通过算例分析,得出用这种方法对大城市公交优先系统进行综合评价是可行有效的。4.在研究公交优先系统有效性基础上,以北京市地面公交系统为实证研究,对已有的公交线网、公交专用道(路)、枢纽进行分析,提出调整优化公交线网的目标和措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 Urban transportation is an essential product of socioeconomic development and also one of the important basic infrastructures for the megalopolis existence. As an indispensable component of the urban dynamic system, it is a necessary material condition and basic industry for overall development of the megalopolis. Along with fast socioeconomic growth and change of travel ideas, contradiction between traffic demand and supply has seen a higher degree, such as increase of traffic congestion and accidents and increasing seriousness of environmental pollution caused by the traffic. So, to re-enforce development effort of megalopolis public transit and implement the strategy of "public transit priority" is an important measure to effectively solve megalopolis transport problems.The author made much investigation and research on the basis of long-term research and practice in urban public transit and finally confirmed the topic and study scope after repeated study and analysis as well as comparison:taking megalopolis public transit as study object, analyze main reasons for traffic congestion and then take research on technology strategy of public transit priority as study scope to conduct study on time priority and space priority of public transit. In this thesis creation, the author firstly reviews lots of reference and conducted research, and sums up the achievements and current development status of public transit priority strategy in the megalopolis both inland and abroad along with comprehensive interpretation of that. Based on this, the author then adopts the system engineering theory and methods, the systematic approach, the qualitative and quantitative analysis method, the Petri net theory, Dempster-Shafer Theory and Catastrophe Theory to conduct research on graphical model of large city ground public transit priority technology strategy, and then structures that on the basis of Petri net Theory; next, on the basis of Dempster-Shafer Theory and Catastrophe Theory, the author conducts a comprehensive evaluation of the megalopolis public transit priority technology strategy and constructs comprehensive evaluating index and sub-index with qualitative and quantitative drawn into the same model for the sake of evaluation; finally, the author puts forward suggestions on adjustment and optimization of public transit network by taking public transit network in Beijing as empirical study. Based on the studies of the predecessors, the author has achieved the following innovative results:1.On the basis of system engineering theory and method, the traffic system of major cities in our country is analyzed. In particular, the technical tactic on developing traffic system of major cities is systematically analyzed and studied. Then by combining qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis and through comprehensive evaluation of the public transport priority systems, the argument is made that developing public transport is an essential way to solve urban traffic problems.2.The megalopolis public transit priority technology strategy is established on the basis of the theory of Petri net together with domestic megalopolis ground public transit priority technology strategy. The Petri net has the advantages of parallel travel, concurrent dispatch and synchronization. Through modeling method of Petri net, the whole process of transit with time and space priority in the megalopolis ground public transit priority strategy is depicted and analyzed. By dividing the transition into timed transition and immediate transition and adopting the inhibitor arcs and the priority given to each arc, the megalopolis ground public transit priority GSPN model, which represents the principle of public transit priority, has been established. In addition, the mathematical method is used to analyze the performance indices of the system and the existing public transit priority technology strategy is compared with non-public one so as to achieve an effective strategy on public transit priority system, thus laying a theoretical basis for realizing public transit priority. Besides, specific measures and methods to achieve efficiency of public transit priority are also brought up.3.In the comprehensive evaluation methods of the megalopolis public transit priority system, by adopting the Dempster-Shafer Theory and the Catastrophe Theory, the author puts forward a quantitative comprehensive evaluation method based on Dempster-Shafer Theory and Catastrophe Theory. By repeated comparison, discussion and consulting relevant experts, evaluating index and sub-index for megalopolis public transit quantitative priority are determined. Then, the comprehensive evaluation method of the public transit network is determined in accordance with the importance of the indices and the sub-indices and with combination of specialist reliability. For different experience and preference from different experts, Dempster-Shafer Theory composition rule is used to combine the probability assignment of evaluation index by integrating evaluations of different experts to get evaluation value of sub-index and then by adopting Catastrophe Theory, take evaluation index and sub-index as control variables to comprehensively evaluate public transit priority system, thus avoiding the subjectivity of artificial decision. The cases demonstrate that the method is feasible.4.Based on the study on effectiveness of public transit technology strategy by taking ground public transit network in Beijing as instance as well analysis of the existing public transit network, public bus lane (BRT) and transportation hub, the author has proposed the objective and measures for improving the existing public transit network.更多还原