【作者】 佟常兵；

【导师】 张秋生；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 产业经济学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 我们正处在一个经济全球化的时代,一个信息化的时代,资产在一国甚至全球的流动和重组——收购、兼并、剥离——是这个时代资本市场的主流。然而,企业在按照一定规则与程序进行并购交易时并不总是能够确保交易的必然成功,那么,是怎样的因素影响了企业并购交易的成败呢?尽管有众多的法律规则对并购交易进行规制,同时又有众多的并购交易程序、经验、案例可以借鉴,但并购交易的过程还是充满了太多出乎意料的事情。为什么看似按法律规则运作有序的并购交易会有如此多的出乎意料?现有的并购理论对此并没有现成的答案,但这些问题却能在复杂性科学中寻找到合理的解释。这正是笔者运用复杂性科学的理论研究企业并购交易的的根本原因。本文首先以复杂性科学的视角论述了并购交易双方及利益相关者以并购交易为目的自组织形成了并购交易复杂系统,该系统是一个按照一定的目的和规则稳定运行与演化的开放系统,具有复杂系统的多样性、多层次性、自适应性、非线性、演化的动力学特性、秩序性与不确定性等所有复杂系统的特征,目的、秩序以及不确定性是构成该复杂系统的核心。其次,企业并购交易是在一定的规则下运行的,规则使企业并购交易形成了一定的秩序结构。除了国家为保障企业并购交易的有效运行而制定的法律法规等显规则外,同样也存在着大量的、体现着一定目的和意图的隐规则。本文从企业并购交易的自组织性、共生性、协同性、组织性及作用机制等五个角度揭示了企业并购交易的这种隐秩序,并运用熵理论对企业并购交易系统的有序性进行了评价。通过例子实证了系统的协同关系越复杂、复杂性评价值越大,则协同性和复杂有序性越差的特征。接下来,从企业并购交易主体、交易环境和交易市场入手,详细地揭示了并购交易中谈判、支付方式、潜在第三方的介入、决策等行为主体的不确定性,以及地方政府、社区、舆论、市场、宗教等社会环境,反垄断监管、行业监管、政治性监管、司法裁决等交易环境的不确定性,建立了并购交易系统的不确定性结构图,从复杂性科学的角度系统地分析了非线性相互作用与模棱两可是导致企业并购交易不确定性的根本原因。运用熵理论对并购交易系统的不确定性进行了综合评价,论证了并购交易系统的功与不确定性成正比例关系,即功越大说明系统不确定性越严重；信息熵的减少,对减少系统运行的不确定性贡献将提高。最后,从系统科学和复杂性科学的角度,论述了并购交易系统不确定性与秩序性的统一；分析了并购交易系统的分形特征,构建了并购交易系统的动力学演化模型；同时论述了通过有效运用专家知识系统、掌握并购交易的方法与技巧、加强保密意识、选择恰当的时机、增加必要的信息等多种方式来克服企业并购交易的不确定性；并从并购的交易模式与融资方式等方面阐述了创新对并购交易的促进作用,以及创建新规则对隐规则向显规则的转化的作用机制。全文创新地提出了：(1)并购交易是一个自组织的按照一定的目的和规则稳定运行与演化的复杂系统；(2)并购交易具有显秩序和隐秩序的特点,引入熵理论建立了并购交易系统有序性评价模型和评价系统关系图,使并购交易秩序的阐述得以更加完整、清晰、系统化；(3)运用复杂性科学系统地对企业并购交易的不确定性进行了研究和综合评价；同时,论述了并购交易系统不确定性与秩序性的统一、演化和创新。更多还原

【Abstract】 We are in an era of economic globalization and informatization, and the assets’ flow and restructuring within one country or even globally in form of acquisitions, mergers and divestiture have become the mainstream in capital markets. However, the merger and acquisition (M & A) transactions in accordance with certain business rules and procedures cannot always be successful, and then, what factors affect the success or failure of corporate M & A transactions? Although there are numerous legal rules to regulate M & A transactions, as well as a large amount of M & A procedures, experience and cases, the process of M & As is full of unexpected things. Why there are so many unexpected things during the M & A transactions which have been done seemingly in proper order and in line with legal regulations and procedures? The existing M & A theory has not answer the question, but the complexity science can give reasonable explanation of these issues. This is the underlying reason why I use the theory of complexity science to study M & A transactions.Firstly, from the perspective of complexity science, a complex M & A system organized by the two parties and related stakeholders in the transaction is discussed. The system is an open system in stable operation and evolution according to certain purposes and rules, which is with diversity of complex systems, in multi-level nature, adaptive, nonlinear, evolution dynamics, in order, and with the uncertainty of all the characteristics of complex systems. The purpose, order and the uncertainty of the complex systems form the core of the complex systems.Secondly, M & A transactions are running under certain rules, and the rules make M & A transactions form a certain order structure. In addition to the national laws and regulations regarding M & A transactions for the protection of the effective operation, there are also many implicit rules with certain purposes and intentions. In this paper, the hidden order in M & A transactions are revealed from five perspectives, including self-organization, symbiosis, collaboration, organization and mechanism, and the entropy theory is used in the evaluation of the ordering in M & A transaction system. Examples have been showed that more complex in the system through cooperative relationships, the greater the complexity of the evaluation value, then the interoperability and complex characteristics, of the worse order.Next, from the main bodies in M & A transactions, trading and market environment, details is revealed in the discussing the uncertainty in negotiating M & A transactions, payment methods, potential third party involvement, decision-making actors, as well as the uncertainty in the social environment including local government, community, public opinion, market and religion, and in trading environment such as anti-monopoly regulation, industry regulation, political control, judicial decisions. A system diagram of the uncertainty in M & A transaction is created, and the system analysis from the perspective of complexity science show that the nonlinear interaction and the ambiguity have been the underlying causes of uncertainty in M & A transactions. The entropy theory is used to do a comprehensive evaluation of the uncertainty of M & A transaction system, which has proved that merit in M & A transactions is in direct proportion relations with the uncertainty, that is, the greater the merit power, more serious the system uncertainty; and the information entropy reduction help to increase the contribution in reducing the uncertainty of system operation.Finally, from the systems science and complexity science perspective, discusses are made to show the unity between the uncertainty and ordering in M & A transaction system. The fractal characteristics of the M & A transaction system is analysed, and a dynamic evolution model of the M & A transaction system is constructed. A variety of ways to overcome the uncertainty of M & A transactions is also discussed including effective use of expert knowledge systems, to control methods and skills of M & A transactions, to enhance security awareness, to choose the right time to increase the necessary information. Meanwhile, from the transaction mode and financing in M & A, and other related aspects, studies show that innovation has promoted M & A transactions as well as the mechanism in how the creation of new rules helps the transformation of the implicit rules.The innovative arguments in the paper include (1) M & A transaction is a self-organizing complex system with stable operation and evolution in according with certain objectives and rules; (2) M & A transaction has the characteristics of both open order and hidden order, and entropy theory is introduced to create an ordering evaluation model in M & A transaction system as well as a relationship map in the evaluation system, which make the explanation of the M & A transaction procedure more complete, clear and systematic; (3) the complexity science is introduced in the systematic study and comprehensive evaluation of the uncertainty of the M & A transactions, and meanwhile, the unity, evolution and innovation of the uncertainty in the M & A transaction system have been discussed.更多还原