【作者】 刘志国；

【导师】 王恩德；

【作者基本信息】 东北大学 ， 矿产普查与勘探， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 水资源是基础自然资源,是生态环境的控制性因素之一。20世纪下半叶以来,世界上许多国家用水量急剧上升,一些地区相继引发水危机,水资源短缺问题在全世界正引起广泛重视,大量的国际会议把水资源问题作为主要议程。21世纪,随着全球社会经济的快速发展,人口普遍增加和城市化进程的加快,人类对水资源的开发利用不断深入,水资源各种利用方式之间的矛盾日益激化,人类面临的水资源紧缺问题日趋严峻。河北平原地处华北平原北部,是我国目前水资源供需矛盾最为尖锐的地区之一。由于地表水资源缺乏,地下水资源是河北平原的主要供水水源。随着社会经济和人口对水资源日益增长的需求,进入70年代,由于城乡缺水,河北平原开始大规模开发利用地下水。全省平原区浅层超采区和严重超采区面积分别为33026km2、1717km2,深层地下水超采区和严重超采区面积分别达到12011km2、31216 km2。导致山前局部地区浅部含水层疏干,中东部平原深层地下水水位大幅下降,并诱发了地面沉降等一系列环境地质问题,地下水的超量开采最终导致地面沉降、海水入侵等地质灾害和生态环境的破坏,带来了巨大的经济损失。因此分析河北平原地下水系统的循环机理、研究河北平原地下水资源可持续利用的理论和方法、探讨河北平原地下水持续利用的对策不仅具有重大的现实意义,而且具有深远的历史意义。作者通过深入分析河北平原地下水开发现状及造成的环境影响；对河北平原地下水进行了动态模拟,评价了河北平原地下水的脆弱性和水资源与社会经济的协调性,预测了河北平原未来地下水资源量和地下水水位的变化,并在此基础上提出了河北省水资源可持续利用的对策。取得了如下主要成果：(1)调查了河北平原地下水开发利用现状及其对环境造成的影响,分析了人为因素的扰动和全球气候变化对河北平原地下水环境的影响,探讨了降水、地下水资源量和径流的变化及它们之间的关系。(2)以GIS为平台,利用地统计方法中的变异函数研究了河北平原地下水水位、地下水水质的空间自相关和变异,并分析了二者在不同时段的变化。利用kriging插值法分析了河北平原地下水水位和地下水水质的空间分布情况,认为地下水水位和地下水水质的5个因子存在着空间自相关,地下水水位和水质的变异与人为因素有关。(3)以地下水水质评价结果的V类水为响应因子,可开采模数、地下水埋深、含水层净补给模数、含水层岩性的富水性和矿化度五个因素为预测因子,利用实证权重法研究了河北平原地下水的脆弱性。认为河北平原的地下水脆弱性较高区域主要分布在靠近渤海的滨海区,而受地下水埋深和地下水矿化度的影响,在河北平原的东部的唐山和秦皇岛一带的中部条带区域内脆弱性级别较高。(4)利用模糊数学法进行了河北平原水资源与社会经济的协调评价,同时,利用灰色系统、时间序列和神经网络的层次组合预测法对河北平原地下水的水资源量和地下水水位进行了中长期预测,认为河北平原水资源与社会经济严重不协调,未来地下水水位和水资源量继续下降。并在此基础上提出了河北省水资源可持续利用的对策。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water resources belong to basic natural resources. It is one of the controlling factors of ecotope. Since the last stage of 20 centure, the water consumption of many countries rise steeply. And in many areas water crisis take place. The shortage of water resources arouses broad attention, and regards as main agenda in most international conferences. In 21 centure, with the global social economy developing fleetly, the population apace increases, and urbanization is accelerated observably. So the water exploitation deepen gradually, the contradictions among every utilization of water resources intensify increasingly. The shortage of water resources is more and more severe.Hebei plain, which is in the north of North China Plain, becomes one of the areas that face the controdations between supplies and demands for water severely. The surface water is lacking in Hebei plain, so the ground water is the main supply resource. Since 70s, towns and countries have become lacking of water along with the demands of water resources by social economy and population increasingly, that leads to cosmically exploration of groundwater. In this plain, the area of surficial overexploration is 33,026 km2, thereinto, the severe overexplorating area is 1,717 km2; the area of deep overexploration is 12,011 km2, thereinto, the severe overexplorating area is 31,216 km2. That causes the drainage of surfacial aquiclude in some piedmont, the rapid drop of water level of deep groundwater in the mideast plain, series of environmental geologic problems such as ground subsidence. The overexploration of groundwater will leads to ecotope damages and geologic disasters such as land subsidence, seawaterinvasion and so on, that will bring huge economic loss. So it is very meaningful that analyzing the circulate mechanics, studying the theories and methods of sustainable utilization of groundwater resources in North China Plain, discussing the countermeasures on sustainable utilizations of groundwater resources.Through in-depth analysis of the exporation actuality of groundwater and the environmental responsion in North China Plain, the author dynamic analogised the groundwater of Hebei plain, appraised the vulnerability of the groundwater and the compatibility between water resources and social economy, forecasted the quantity of the groundwater resources and the change of water level in future, bringed frowared countermeasures on sustainable utilizations of water resources in Hebei province, obtained some research productions as follow:(1)Investigated the exporation actuality of groundwater and the environmental responsion in North China Plain; analyzed the effect on groundwater environment in Hebei plain from man-made disturbance and global climate change; discussed the change of rainfall, the reserve of groundwater resources, surface flow and the relationship among them.(2)Based on GIS, investigated the groundwater level, spatial autocorrelation and variation of groundwater quality in Hebei plain by variation functions of geologic statistical method; analyzed their changes in different time-interval; studied the groundwater level and spatial distribution of groundwater quanlity in Hebei plain.(3)Taken the fifth class of groundwater quanlity as response factor, exploiting modulus, burial depth of groundwater, recharge modulus of water-bearing beds, water-reserving capability of water-bearing beds and the mineralizing degree as five pre-estimate factors, studied the vulnerability of groundwater in Hebei plain by positive weight method.(4)Appraised the compatibility between water resource of Hebei plain and social economy by fuzzing mathematics method; at the same time, made a medium-term and longterm pre-estimation on groundwater reservation and level in Hebei plain via the pre-estimating method that is a hierarchy combination of grey system, time series and neurowet. Based on these,bringed forward countermeasures on sustainable utilizations of water resources in Hebei province.更多还原