【作者】 齐锡晶；

【导师】 王连广；

【作者基本信息】 东北大学 ， 结构工程， 2007， 博士

【摘要】 房地产业与经济发展、资源环境等紧密关联,而且商品房的消费(使用)与.投资双重属性又使得其在保障基本人权(居住权)以及提高社会经济运行安全度等方面占据重要的地位。“空置商品房的危机与防范”研究旨在基于空置机理、危机识别、综合监控、内部控制外部保障等的交互作用,建立空置商品房综合管理系统,并通过其高效运转,调节商品房空置数量、稳固资金链条,降低综合风险,促进房地产业乃至社会经济的健康、持续发展。由于体制、经济发展水平等差异,导致我们不能直接采用国外侧重于某一局部(行业)的房地产及空置商品房运作模式。在市场经济条件下,我国发展房地产业的经验不丰富、信息披露不充分,对于空置商品房的认知有限,当前又面临着商品房空置总量和商品房价格的同时上涨,并造成一定的社会隐患。因此,整合全社会资源,健全跨行业的空置商品房综合管理系统,对于保持适宜规模、预防空置危机、改进宏观调控等,具有深远的理论与实际意义。在界定概念、明确特征的基础上,定性分析了我国房地产业的后向关联、前向关联、环向关联及其国民经济支柱性产业地位；引用投入产出技术和生产函数模型,定量地描述房地产业与经济发展的关系；通过修正后的“产业贡献率”,测算出房地产业对经济增长的贡献率以及经济拉动效果,得出2005年房地产业对沈阳经济增长的贡献为9.07%。从而,为推进空置商品房综合管理系统奠定了坚实的基础。提出“房产信息法”,并与统计数据、市场调查法对比分析,确认空置商品房的总量,并进行了空置结构分析；通过辨析空置商品房的形成机理,论证商品房空置的必然性,分析其超量的危机和不足的危害；明确界定“空关房”,并研讨其后续的利弊效应；在与国家现行商品房空置率指标相衔接的基础上,谦顾年度波动以及存量房的存在与增长,建立起包括商品房空置率V1、年度商品房空置率V2和全部商品房空置率V3在内的商品房空置率指标体系；结合沈阳市场情况,以V1为15%～30%、V2为10%～40%和V3为5%～10%,确立了各项指标的合理波动范围,并完成了实例验算,效果良好。从而,确立了空置商品房综合管理系统的核心。通过优选出11项监测指标、组合出9项评价指标,明确了评价标准(正常浮动区间),确定出5个预警界限,实现科学预警,构建出各个过程互动的房地产市场监控系统,并运用“综合警值法”、“信号灯法”实现了预警；以沈阳市近年连续、同质的数据完成了有关验证,结果表明1998年沈阳房地产市场偏冷,2005年市场偏热；建立了适用于沈阳房地产市场预警的BP网络模型,编制出分析优化程序,以实现监控工作的系统、连续与动态优化。从而,在很大程度上丰富了空置商品房综合管理系统。在优化土地收购与供应的同时,加大保障性住房供应力度以完善商品住房市场供应结构,强化房地产开发全面项目管理,丰富包括住房质量保证保险、执业责任保险在内的社会保险体系以及健全企业信用体系等,从房地产行业内部的控制机制入手,强化空置商品房的综合管理系统,形成其运转的推动力；在积极引导住房需求与完善住房金融风险防范机制的同时,通过施行物业税而优化税收设计,借助施行期房限售、规范政府部门角色等探索政策与机制创新,积极试行房地产抵押贷款证券化等,从房地产行业外部的保障机制入手,优化空置商品房的综合管理系统,形成其运转的平衡力；进而,追求各组成部分之间的耦合作用、动态优化。更多还原

【Abstract】 Real estate industry is connected to the environment of economy and resources closely. The dual nature of a house, living and investment, makes it play a very important role in support people’s living condition and improving the society’s economic operation.This research focuses on establishing an integrated management system for unsold commercial houses based on the interactions on the mechanism of unsold commercial house,identifying the crisis, integrated monitoring, and internal control and external security. This system will promote a healthy and sustainable growth for the real estate industry itself and the society’s economy by its efficient operation, adjusting the quality of the unsold commercial houses,stabilizing the capital supply, and reducing the integrated risks.We can not simply copy the existing models used by other countries,which focus on their societies, since we are in the different economic system and conditions.Under the market economy circumstances,we are lack of experiences for developing the real estate industry. The information disclosure is insufficiency. The knowledge for unsold commercial houses is limited.We are facing a difficult situation that both the commercial house price and the total number of unsold commercial house are raising simultaneously. It leads some potential issues for our society. The implementation of an integrated management system,which will allocate the resources and manage the unsold commercial houses across different sections,has a significant theoretical and practical value for maintaining a suitable construction scale,preventing the unsold commercial houses crisis,and improving the economic control in macro scoop.Based on the clear defined concepts and characterizes, this paper analyzes the backward correlation, the forward correlation, and the circumferential correlation in the real estate industry in China, as well as its main pillar position in our national economy. It describes the relation between real estate industry and the economic development by using the input-output technique and production model.It conducts the contribution ratio of real estate industry to economic growth and its effects to the economy by revised "Business Contribution Ratio.The ration is 9.07% for Shenyang in 2005.All these establish a strong foundation for building an integrated management system for unsold commercial houses. This paper proposes a "House Information" function which could be used for identifying the total unsold commercial house on the market by comparing the statistic data and market survey. It analyzes the consisting of the unsold commercial houses.It proofs the inevitability of the unsold commercial house by analyzing the unsold mechanism.It analyzes the risk of too many unsold commercial houses and the hurts to the market of too less unsold commercial houses.It clearly defines the "Not Used House" and investigates its consequent advantages and disadvantages.Based on the current national unsold commercial house index,combined with the yearly rebounding factor and the increasing of existing commercial house,it establishes an index system which includes unsold commercial house rate V1,yearly unsold commercial house rate V2 and Total unsold commercial house rate V3.Regarding to the market condition in Shenyang, using V1 for 10%-30%, V2 for 10%-405,and V3 for 5%-10%. it establishes a reasonable floating range for various indexes and completes the verification with an excellent result.It elects 9 evaluation indexes and clarifies the evaluation criteria(normal floating rang) by optimizing and combining 11 monitor indexes.It defines five warning limits for early warning anticipation.It establishes a monitor system with interactive processes for real estate market and anticipates the early warning by using "Integrated Value for Early Warning" and "Traffic Light" methods.Using the consecutive,homogenous date in Shenyang in recent years to verifies the system.The result shows that the real estate market in Shenyang is a little too cool in 1998 and a little over heated in 2005.It builds a BP network model used for anticipating early warning for real estate market in Shenyang.It has an optimizing analysis program which helps to monitor systematically, continuously, and dynamically. It greatly enriches the integrated unsold commercial house management system.Along with the optimizing land supply and purchase process,it is necessary to increase the supply of low-cost indemnificatory houses to improve the structure of the supply for commercial house and intensify project management for real estate development.It also needs to improve the insurance system,including house quality warranty and insurance for business practice liability, and business credibility evaluation system.Enforcing the integrated management system for unsold commercial houses by the business internal control will produce the momentum for the industry. Along with guiding the house demand and improving the mechanism for financial risk control,optimizing the integrated management for unsold commercial houses by using the new and innovated policies and mechanisms for the business external secure mechanism,such as imposing the property tax to optimize taxation, restricting the sale for the future house on the market, clarifying the government’s role,mortgage securitization, etc....This will balance the business operation and could have the coupling action between sections within the system and the dynamic optimization.更多还原