【作者】 郭召松；

【导师】 陆愈实；

【作者基本信息】 中国地质大学 ， 安全工程， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 电力工业是国民经济发展中最重要的基础能源产业,对促进国民经济的发展和社会进步起着重要的作用,是世界各国经济发展战略中优先发展的重点产业之一。随着我国经济的发展,对电的需求量不断扩大。截至2009年底,我国发电设备容量87407万千瓦,其中,火电65205万千瓦,约占总容量74.60%。火电是第一电力能源,总容量大,在电力能源结构中举足轻重。随着社会对电力需求的不断提升,加重了我国火力发电厂的压力,火力发电企业成为维持社会安定、团结、经济快速发展的重要保障之一。火电厂存在电气设备多、高温高压设备多、易燃、易爆和有毒物品多、高速旋转机械多、特种作业多、危险有害因素和危险源多等特点,可引发各类事故,如：电缆起火、汽机油系统起火、燃油罐区及锅炉油系统起火、氢气系统爆炸着火、制粉系统起火、输煤皮带着火等火灾事故；压力容器爆破、锅炉爆炸事故；氢气罐爆炸事故；制粉系统爆炸和煤尘爆炸事故；贮油罐泄漏、火灾、爆炸事故；汽轮机超速和轴系断裂、汽轮机大轴弯曲、轴瓦烧损事故；大型变压器损坏和互感器爆炸；灰渣坝溃坝事故；水淹厂房及厂房坍塌事故等。火电厂生产安全事故不仅可造成设备损坏、设备被迫停止运行、电厂停电的后果,严重的可造成人员伤亡,乃至影响电网供电,引发社会骚乱灾害等恶性事件。因此,应急管理与应急救援对火电厂安全生产非常重要。火电厂生产系统是一个复杂的巨系统,对设备稳定运行、安全维护、信息化监测、监控和信息化管理程度要求高,传统采用的以数据分析计算、合理组织与管理信息为核心的管理信息系统(MIS),既不能挖掘信息更深刻的内在规律,为决策服务,也缺少对发电设备运行状态诊断和突发事件应急救援决策的功能,已不能完全适应现代火电厂安全运行的要求。应急决策对事故应急救援有重要的作用,准确而高效的决策是保证应急救援有效性的前提。因此,开展火电厂应急救援决策支持系统的研究与开发,无论对完善电力安全应急决策理论,还是对提高火电厂事故应急救援决策效率和应急救援能力,降低火电厂企业事故中的人员伤亡与财产损失,都有重要的理论意义和现实意义。虽然应急管理与应急救援的研究近年来备受关注,但相对于其它学科其发展较晚,在事故应急救援管理体系、事故动态演化模型、应急救援行动理论模型及应急救援决策支持系统功能等方面的研究还不够完善。为此,本文确定以①事故应急救援管理体系的研究与建立、②事故动态演化模型的研究、③应急救援行动理论模型的研究、④基于仿真技术设计、开发火电厂应急救援决策支持系统为研究内容；以中国华电集团某火电厂为背景资料,通过收集和研读大量国内外文献,并采用实地调查研究、理论和实证研究、设计研究等方法,开展了系统的研究,取得了如下主要结论和成果。1.在分析现有应急管理体系构成的基础上,针对传统应急管理体系存在的不足,应用系统论、信息论和控制论的理论分析应急管理系统,引入EMS、OHSMS管理体系思想,提出了新的应急管理体系,所提出的新应急管理体系由常态应急管理循环和战态应急管理循环组成,常态应急循环与战态应急循环通过共体要素(包括事故预防、应急计划与准备、应急监视与监测、应急管理评审)而形成耦合,常态应急的不间断连续运行,通过耦合作用而不断提高战态应急救援系统的应急能力,从而提高企业的应急救援能力。结合中国华电集团火电厂实际情况,构建了新的火电厂应急管理体系,并系统分析和设计了其功能。建立了火电厂应急救援系统,它由管理方针目标、电厂应急计划与准备、事故预防与预警、应急响应与行动、应急管理评审组成；分析了应急救援系统各部分组成的功能；设计了火电厂应急救援系统的运行机制；设计并分析了火电厂事故预防与预警、火电厂应急响应与行动的管理接口；分析了应急管理评审内容。2.在分析火电厂存在危险有害因素和主要危险源的基础上,系统探讨了事故动态演化机理。分析了目前研究已提出的三种演化模型,即多米诺(Domino)效应模型、能量释放模型和动力学模型,论述了它们的本质、机理、特征、数学模型及存在的缺陷。在此基础上,提出了新的梯度效应事故演化模型,建立了危险变量场P(x,y,z,t),它是空间和时间的函数,得出了梯度效应事故动态演化模型的数学判式模型,它由梯度判式、能量场传递函数判式和伤害(或损毁)耐受阈值判式组成。分析表明,梯度效应事故演化模型综合了动力学事故演化模型、能量释放事故演化模型和多米诺效应事故演化模型的机理特征,全面揭示了事故动态演化的本质特征。3.在分析事故风险基本模型的基础上,对火电厂事故风险空间分布进行了系统的研究论述,根据事故影响范围数学模型,对厂区空间风险等级进行了划分；论述了厂区空间风险场的叠加分析方法,指出了独立作用代数和求风险叠加方法存在的缺陷,提出了采用能量叠加法求解风险场叠加的新方法,并结合梯度效应事故演化模型判式,给出了能量叠加法求解风险场叠加的具体方法和步骤。以中国华电集团长沙火电厂液氨泄漏扩散模拟为例,系统论述了事故动态演化的仿真,分析了动态演化仿真过程及实现技术,并编制了仿真程序,给出了华电长沙火电厂液氨泄漏扩散的实际仿真结果,可为应急救援决策者提供直观形象的决策支持。4.系统分析了火电厂应急救援相关决策模型的建立,包括扑(抢)救力量分析模型、人员疏散模型、救援动态评估模型和救援资源调配模型,为火电厂应急救援决策支持系统设计提供了科学的救援决策理论依据。借鉴作战中的蓝彻斯特(L.W.Lanchester)作战模型原理,并以火电厂轻柴油储罐泄漏池火事故为例,首次系统论述了应急救援中的扑(抢)救力量分析模型的建立；推导得出了事故强度自然线性衰减方程、有救援的事故强度线性衰减方程和有燃料补充的事故强度衰减方程,以及单储罐泄漏池火事故非线性衰减和双储罐破裂池火事故非线性衰减方程,并给出了相应的变化曲线图；不仅为火电厂决策支持系统设计提供了理论模型,同时,可为事故应急救援及决策理论研究和实际应急救援指挥提供有益的指导。在分析应急救援人员疏散时间模型、社会力学模型、蚁群算法模型和元胞自动机模型特点的基础上,结合火电厂应急救援特点并根据元胞自动机模型的理论框架,论述并建立了元胞人员疏散自动桃模型。与现有元胞自动机疏散模型不同,本文所建立的模型考虑了火电厂事故动态演化引起疏散场所风险场变化对人员疏散的影响,系统论述了场所空间建模、人员移动邻居模型建立和人员疏散行走判据模型的建立,并推导得出了判据计算式。分析了应急救援过程动态评估和应急救援资源调配问题,设计了火电厂事故严重程度初始评估和救援有效性动态评估指标体系,建立了火电厂应急救援多级模糊综合评判动态评估模型；按照应急资源调度要同时满足运输成本最小和运输时间最少的目标要求,给出了应急救援资源调度数学模型和约束函数。5.分析了决策体系的构成及四库决策支持系统的结构,为构建火电厂决策体系提供了理论依据。在分析应急决策特点及应急决策一般构成的基础上,结合本文所提出的新应急管理体系构成,构建了火电厂应急决策体系及火电厂应急决策支持三库系统架构,并设计了火电厂应急救援决策支持系统(EPPEDSS)的总体结构。该系统由应急指挥中心、现场监控系统、报警系统和网络系统四个子系统组成,采用基于Intranet/Internet结构、C／S模式与B／S模式相结合的体系结构,其主要业务流程为常态应急管理、预警分析和应急救援指挥的闭环反馈。该系统由五个子功能模块构成,即应急信息管理、常态应急管理、应急启动、应急救援指挥、应急考核。6.系统论述了EPPEDSS系统核心功能的设计,包括人机交互系统、模型库系统和数据库系统的设计。人机交互系统是基于VRP-SDK三维虚拟现实引擎平台设计,融仿真技术、三维互动技术、物理模拟技术、网络技术和数据库技术为一体,具有高扩展性、灵活性、交互性好等特点。将EPPEDSS系统划分为问题层、方案层、任务层、模型层和数据层五个层,决策交互层次设计的核心是问题层、方案层和任务层的设计。模型库的设计包括虚拟物理模型库设计、概念模型库设计和数学模型库设计,虚拟物理模型库直接采用3D软件构建,概念模型库设计采用面向对象法和本体(Ontology)论法；数学模型库设计采用面向对象法。7.以华电集团某火电厂为背景资料,基于VRP-SDK虚拟仿真开发平台和Microsoft SQL Server 2005数据库平台,采用C#、VC++、Visual Basic.net、OPENGL、Matlab等编程语言开发出了EPPEDSS系统。该系统可实现常态应急基础性管理和战态救援决策分析功能,系统具有应急演练平台、监测预警平台、救援指挥决策平台等。应急演练平台通过VRP-SDK编程、ActiveX插件嵌入、VRP编辑器的直接编辑和输入输出接口功能,实现演练场景物体的控制,可大大提高应急预案演练的效果。救援指挥决策平台采用了物理引擎设计技术和粒子技术,使应急救援虚拟场景具有物理场景的特性,物理模型具有动力学特性,使决策者能够逼真地观察到事故场景物理模型的变化,模拟风力、物体变形、破坏、爆炸、火灾事故及救援过程等,使虚拟仿真技术与决策技术有机结合,提高了事故应急救援决策过程的直观性和有效性。本文研究的主要创新点体现在如下几点：(1)提出新的应急救援管理体系,并按新体系原理构建火电厂应急管理体系,论述新体系各模块的组成、功能、运行机制。(2)提出新的梯度效应事故动态演化模型及其判式；提出采用能量叠加法求解风险场叠加的新方法,并结合梯度效应事故演化模型判式,给出能量叠加法求解风险场叠加的具体方法和步骤。(3)首次系统论述应急救援中的扑(抢)救力量分析模型的建立,并推导得出了事故强度衰减方程；考虑事故动态演化引起疏散场所风险场变化对人员疏散的影响,论述并建立元胞人员疏散自动机模型；建立火电厂应急救援多级模糊综合评判动态评估模型。(4)将虚拟仿真技术与决策分析技术有机结合,设计、开发出具有虚拟仿真功能的火电厂应急救援决策支持系统(EPPEDSS)软件,使决策支持系统更具有直观性和有效性。更多还原

【Abstract】 The power industry is the most important basis energy industry for national economic development. It plays an important role to promote national economics’development and social progress.It’s one of the industries that many countries’ economic development strategy priority to develop.The demand for electricity is growing as China’s economic development. China’s power generation equipment capacity reaches 874.07 million kilowatts at the end of 2009,in which there are about 652.05 million kilowatts of thermal power, accounting for a total capacity of 74.60%.Thermal power is the first electric power, and it plays a decisive role in the power energy structure for it’s total capacity. The rising demand for electricity increased the pressure of China’s thermal power plants.Thermal power enterprises have become an important guarantee for the maintenance of social stability, solidarity, and the economics’rapid development.The thermal power plant has many electrical equipments, many high temperature and high pressure equipments,many flammable, explosive and toxic substances, many high-speed rotating machineries, many special operations, many dangerous and hazardous factors and many risk sources, which can lead to all kinds of accidents, such as:cable fire, steam engine oil system fire, fuel tank farm and boiler oil system fire,hydrogen system explosion fire, milling system fire, coal conveyer belt fire,pressure vessel and boiler explosion, hydrogen tank explosion, milling system and dust explosion accidents, storage tank leaking, fire and explosion accidents, turbine speeding and shaft fracture,turbine shaft bending, bearing burning accidents,large transformer damage and explosions, ash dam dam-break accident, flooded plant and plant collapse accidents and so on.The production safety accidents of thermal power plant not only can cause the consequences of equipment damage, equipments are forced to stop running and blackout, it also can cause serious casualties,and even affect the power grid, leading to adverse events for social unrest disasters.Therefore, emergency management and emergency rescue is very important to the thermal power plant’s safety.Thermal power plant production system is a complex giant system, it requires a high level for the stable operation of the equipment, safe maintenance, information technology for monitoring, controlling and information management. The traditional Management Information System (MIS) that used in data analysis, rational organization and information management can not dig a deeper internal rules of information for decision-making, it also lacks the capabilities of detecting the power generating equipment’s running status and decision-making of emergency response and rescue for emergency, so it can not fully meet the safe operation requirements of modern thermal power plants.Emergency decision is important for accidents rescue. Accurate and efficient decision-making is a prerequisite to ensure the effectiveness of emergency rescue.Therefore, to carry out research and develop on emergency rescue decision support system of the thermal power plant has an important theoretical and practical significance both for improving electrical safety emergency response decision-making theory and improving the efficiency and capabilities of emergency rescue decision-making, reducing casualties and property losses of thermal power plant enterprise accidents.Although the emergency management and emergency rescue is concerned in recent years, but it developed late compared to other subjects.The study is imperfect in accident emergency rescue management systems, dynamic evolution model of the accident, theoretical model of emergency rescue operations and emergency rescue decision support system’s function, etc.So, this paper decided to research on the following content:①the study and establishment of emergency rescue management system,②researching on dynamic evolution model of the accident,③researching on theoretical model of emergency rescue operations,④designing and developing emergency rescue decision support system of thermal power plant based on simulation technology. The paper carried out systematic research and achieved the following main conclusions and results by collecting and studying a large number of domestic and foreign literatures, and using research methods of field studies, theoretical and empirical research, design research based on a thermal power plant of China HuaDian Group’s background information.1.On the basis of the analysis of existing emergency management system and the weaknesses of the traditional emergency management system, the paper brings up the new emergency management system, taking the cybernetics, the information theory and the system theory as the rationale, referencing the thought of EMS and OHSMS.The new emergency management system consists of normal-state emergency management cycle and war-state emergency management cycle.Normal-state emergency management cycle and war-state emergency management cycle unites by common elements (including accident prevention, emergency planning and preparedness, and emergency surveillance and monitoring, emergency management and evaluation).Therefore,the normal-state emergency management runs without interruption through the coupling of normal-state emergency management cycle and war-state emergency management cycle. The level of Enterprise emergency Progress.According to the actual situation in power plants of China HuaDian Corporation, the paper builds a new power plant emergency management system, and analyzes and designs its functions.It sets up power plant emergency rescue system, which consists of management policy and goals, emergency planning and preparation, accident prevention and early warning, emergency response and operations and emergency management review. It analyzes the functions of the emergency rescue system, designs the operation mechanism of power plant emergency rescue system, designs and analyzes accident prevention and early warning, emergency response and management interface, analyzes the content which was evaluated.2.By analyzing hazardous and harmful factors and major dangerous source in the thermal power plant poses a danger of harmful factors and the major hazards, the paper explores the dynamic evolution mechanism of the accident. It analyzes three kinds of evolutionary model which is being researched, that is, Domino (Domino) effect model,the energy release model and dynamic model.And it discusses their nature, mechanism, characteristics,mathematical models and the existing deficiencies.On this basis, the paper proposes a new accident gradient effect dynamic evolution model, and establish a dangerous variable field, which is a function of space and time,reaches the mathematical discriminant of the dynamic evolutionary model which consists of the gradient discriminant, energy field transfer function and injury (or damage) tolerance threshold discriminant.Analysis shows that the accident gradient effect dynamic evolution model combines the features of the accident dynamic evolution model,the energy release evolution model and domino effect accidents Evolution Model and it fully reveals the essential characteristics of the accident dynamic evolution model.3.Analyzing the basic model accident risk, the paper systematically studies and discusses the spatial distribution of the accident risk in thermal power plant. According to the model of accident extent, the level of risk is divided on power plant. The paper discusses the analysis method of factory space risk field the risks superposition, finds the defect for the independent algebra and Risk stacking method, raises a new method for solving risk filed superposition using the energy superposition, and gives the specific methods and steps. Taking the simulation of leak and diffusion about liquid ammonia in Changsha thermal power plants for an example, the paper discusses the simulation of accident dynamic evolution model,analyzes the technology and process of dynamic evolution simulation and write the simulation program.Finally, the paper gives the simulation results of the simulation of leak and diffusion about liquid ammonia, which can be provided for emergency decision makers with an intuitive decision.4.The paper analyzes the establishment of thermal power plant emergency rescue models systematically, including rescue ability analysis model, occupant evacuation model,dynamic rescue assessment model and rescue resources allocation model,which provided theoretical base for scientific rescue decision. Use for reference of Lanchester combat theory and taking thermal power plants of light diesel oil storage tank leak pool fire incident as an example, the paper systematically discusses the establishment of extinguishing force analysis model in emergency rescue;Through a series of analytical model deduction, it obtains accident strength natural linear attenuation equation, accident strength relieving linear attenuation equation and accident strength linear attenuation with fuels supplementary equation, single storage tank leak pool fire incident nonlinear attenuation equation and double storage tank rupture pool fire incident nonlinear attenuation equation the corresponding variation curves are got as well,that not only offers the effective theoretical model for emergency rescue decision support system of thermal power plant, but provides beneficial guidance for accident emergency rescue decision theoretical research and practical emergency command.Based on the character analysis of emergency rescue occupant evacuation time model, social mechanics model, ant colony algorithm model and cellular automation model, the paper discuss and builds the cellular occupant evacuation automation model.Different from the existing cellular automation model and combing with the character of thermal power plant and the theoretical framework of cellular automation model,the model proposed by the paper takes the influence of occupant evacuation into consideration, and the influence is caused by the risk field change of thermal power plant accidents dynamic evolution.After the establishment of place spatial modeling, human motion neighbor model and occupant evacuation walking criterion model, the criterion expression for the cellular occupant evacuation automation model is deduced.The emergency rescue progress dynamic evaluation and rescue resources allocation are studied in the paper, first, it designs a dynamic assessment command system for thermal power plant accident severity initial evaluation and rescue efficiency dynamic estimation, furthermore, a multi-stage fuzzy comprehensive judgment for thermal power plant emergency rescue is given; for the requirement of transportation cost minimization and transportation time minimum, the emergency rescue materials allocation mathematical model and constraint function are proposed.5.The constitution of decision-making system and decision support system is analyzed in this paper, which provides theoretical basis for the establishment of thermal power plant decision-making system.A new emergency management system constitution is proposed in this paper, combing with the character and general constitution of emergency decision, thermal power plant emergency decision-making system and emergency decision support system system architecture are given, then, it designs the overall structure of emergency rescue decision support system for thermal power plant (EPPEDSS).The system is composed by four subsystems of emergency command center, scene monitor system, alarming system and network system,Based on Hybrid Mode of Intranet/Internet, C/S and B/S model,its main operation flow is the closed-loop feedback of normal emergency management, precaution analysis and emergency rescue command. Therefore, the system is composed by five models that are emergency information management, normal emergency management, emergency start, emergency response and emergency assessment.6.The paper systematically discusses the core design of EPPEDSS,containing man-machine interaction system, model base system and data base system.The man-machine interaction system is based VRP-SDK 3D virtual reality engine platform, which melts the simulation technology, three-dimensional interaction technology, physical simulation, network technology and data base technology, with the feature of highly extensible, flexibility and better interaction. The whole EPPEDSS can be divided into program layer, solution layer, task layer, model layer and data layer, the core design of decision interactive level is the design of program layer, solution layer and task layer. Model base design includes virtual physical model base design, conception model base design and mathematics model design, among them, virtual physical model base is constructed by 3D software, conception model base design adopt object-oriented method and ontology method;the mathematics model design is realized through object-oriented method.7.On the background of a thermal power plant of China HuaDian Corporation,the paper using C#,VC++,Visual Basic.net,OPENGL,Matlab and other programming languages develops EPPEDSS system based on VRP-SDK virtual simulation development platform and Microsoft SQL Server 2005 database platform.The system that is composed of an emergency drill platform,a monitoring and early warning platform and a rescue command decision platform realizes basic normal emergency management and rescue decision analysis in the state of emergency.The effect of emergency plan drill has been greatly heightened by the emergency drill platform through the control of the exercise scenario objects.It is realized by the VRP-SDK,Plug-ins,and the direct editing and input and output interface functions of VRP editor.Rescue command decision platform using physical engine design and granule technology enables emergency rescue virtual scene with the characteristics of a physical scene and the physical model with dynamic characteristics.Decision makers can clearly observe the process of accident rescue and the change of physical models in the accident scene,like wind,object deformation,destruction,explosion and fire.Visuality and validity of process of accident emergency rescue decision have been enhanced through combination of virtual simulation technology and decision theory.The principal innovation of this study is reflected in the following points:(1)Not only a new emergency rescue management system has been proposed,but also a thermal power plant emergency management system has been established according to the new theory.The paper discusses the composition,function and operation mechanism of each module.(2) The paper proposes a new dynamic evolutionary model of the accident gradient effect and its discriminant, advances specific methodology and procedure to solve the risk of superimposed utilizing energy superposition method on the based of the new proposed way for solving the superimposed risk and the new discriminant.(3)The paper first systematically discusses and builds fighting and rescue strength analysis model of emergency rescue,besides, the attenuation formula of accident intensity has been deduced.The cellular occupant evacuation automation model has been discussed and established considering the influence of occupant evacuation which is caused by the risk field change of thermal power plant accidents dynamic evolution.Furthermore,multi-stage fuzzy comprehensive judgment for thermal power plant emergency rescue has been established.(4) Combining virtual simulation technology and decision theory, the author designs and develops the Thermal Power Plant Emergency Rescue Decision Support System (EPPEDSS) software that has the function of virtual simulation, so the decisions support system more intuitive and effective.更多还原