【作者】 刘静华；

【导师】 贾仁安；

【作者基本信息】 南昌大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 中国在家庭联产承包责任制下农民专业合作社、新家庭农场不断产生。养殖业中家庭养殖场、中小规模养殖专业户成为生猪养殖的主体,但是规模养殖产生废弃物污染对农业生态系统造成的危害已不容忽视,影响低碳与生态产业发展。政府沼气工程投入有效的抑制了猪粪尿等养殖废弃物污染。但沼液、沼气的二次污染产生且日益严重。2002年开始,南昌大学系统工程研究所、南昌大学管理科学与工程博士点在江西省萍乡地区泰华规模养殖区域挂牌建立了“南昌大学生态能源系统工程科研教学基地”,创建了沼液分流、延迟过滤、氧化储存、五大养种生物链综合利用高效低碳生态经济农业生物质能产业系统,成果《丘陵地区规模养种生态能源系统工程研究与应用》,获2008年萍乡市科技进步一等奖、江西省社科一等奖、江西省科技进步二等奖,江西省政府由科技厅设课题《规模化猪场畜牧污染控制及循环利用集成与实施》(时间2008-2011,项目资金100万)推广,在国家鄱阳湖生态经济区,从江西北至南建立三个规模养种低碳生态能源经济建设推广示范基地。其中包括<江西省德邦牧业有限公司规模养种低碳生态能源经济区>推广示范基地。江西省德邦牧业有限公司规模种猪2万头。南昌大学管理科学与工程博士点将基地建设和博士研究生学位论文研究紧密结合,本文在已有研究的基础上,以江西德邦养种生态能源区域发展为重点,研究中国家庭联产承包责任制下养种规模发展理论应用问题,研究实现养殖区域环境优美与经济发展和沼气能源开发为三重目标,将农民增收、养殖场猪尿和猪粪的生物质资源的充分利用、以户用沼气的持续发展和周边苗木及水稻为代表的种植业健康发展等问题融入德邦种猪生态能源区管理,运用系统动力学反馈动态复杂性分析理论和农业生态工程技术,针对农村普遍存在的养猪规模养殖沼液累积污染和沼气供气不稳定的问题,研究提出并且设计应用于农村种猪规模养殖生态系统管理和建设的对策及实施工程。本文主要研究工作和成果如下：1.将反馈基模分析及经济学比较优势理论与案例分析结合,进行了中国农村家庭联产承包责任制现状和发展趋势分析,有利地说明了新家庭农场是未来家庭联产承包责任制发展的一条途径。以1978-2007年萍乡农业发展的数据,分析家庭联产承包责任制的4个优点,指出了其在发展过程中的4个成长制约上限,给出了其发展趋势的7个观点,以江西省萍乡市芦溪县竹园农民专业合作社陈茂盛2008年种植500亩水稻为案例,以详实的数据,用经济学的比较优势理论,对比了现代化规模经营的家庭农场和传统的联产承包责任制的经营模式,有力地说明了新家庭农场是未来的发展趋势。2.进行深入实地分析构建五个顶点赋权图,用五个顶点赋权图的多个顶点的顶点值的动态变化规律,证明消除顶点赋权图中一个负反馈环制约和促二个正反馈环增长的三项管理对策的正确性,实现在家庭联产承包责任制下,发展规模养殖生态产业,实施养种和场户结合,同时开发养殖场和农户沼气能源工程。德邦规模养殖生态能源区是国家战略《鄱阳湖生态经济区规划》产业区,是要求实现规模养殖和种植循环经济的开发区,是要求实现开发沼气能源减少污染物排放(节能减排)的低碳与生态产业区,是由大学、公司、农户、地方政府等共同参加的创新基地,此规模养种循环与节能减排系统是一个复杂系统。对此,创建系统动力学三步顶点赋权图分析法进行研究。首先,对实地发展进行了深入分析,确定系统发展中的核心变量的因果链集合,产生三个正因果链构成的规模养殖猪利润增长正反馈环,四个正因果链构成的猪粪资源开发利用增长正反馈环,揭示现行系统发展的优势；产生三个正因果链和一个负因果链构成的猪尿污染制约负反馈环揭示系统发展存在的问题。接着,分类对2005年至2009年1-12月份17种猪的猪粪和猪尿及其中的氮磷钾资源进行了实际测量和计算,并给出了苗猪、种猪和肉猪的每头利润计算等公式,建立了两个增长正反馈环和一个制约负反馈环构成的2005-2009年规模养殖生态能源区增长制约顶点赋权图,定量揭示现行系统发展的优势和存在的问题。最后,围绕两个增长正反馈环和一个制约负反馈环的内涵再提出系统可持续发展实现规模养种循环与节能减排的管理对策,且通过五个顶点赋权图顶点值的变化规律,证明发展中,必须实施既开发生物质能源又保护环境的沼气工程,必须实行养种和场户双结合开发生物质资源,必须加大投入实施规模经营改变生产方式3条管理对策的正确性,且促进了此三管理对策在养殖区实施。此三步顶点赋权图分析法及研究结果有重要理论和实际意义,且为后续定量仿真方程的建立提供了积累。3.基于五个顶点赋权图顶点值建立仿真方程,建立流率基本入树模型,定量仿真联产责任制下农业产业规模发展三项管理对策实施后未来十年的变化趋势,论证对策的正确性。在顶点赋权图的顶点变量和顶点值及模型的分析基础上,根据研究目的,构建了分别以猪出栏年变化量、猪月均存年变化量、规模养殖利润年变化量、猪尿量年变化量、场猪尿产沼气年变化量、猪粪量年变化量、户猪粪年产沼气变化量七个流率变量为根的德邦规模养殖生态系统流率基本入树仿真模型。基于三步顶点赋权法的顶点值建立的仿真模型各变量方程,分别对德邦牧业规模养殖生态系统在2005-2020年时段系统实施沼气综合利用、规模养殖和猪粪综合利用三项对策工程前后系统状况进行情景仿真,定量论证了第五章所制定的管理对策的科学性及实施的必要性。模拟结果揭示猪粪猪尿的沼气综合利用工程形成循环经济产生经济效益对规模养殖形成正向的促进作用,为其可持续发展提供了环境保障。4.对策实施研究。研究阐述南昌大学系统工程研究所与江西德邦牧业有限公司合作进行对策实施的三沼综合利用工程建设示范工程,场校结合的沼气能源开发和沼液综合利用的污染治理工程的工艺流程和运行效果。此工程将小流域内的猪场、农田、鱼饲料、板栗、苗木作为一个完整的生态经济系统,设计包括沼液三次沉淀过滤池、“猪-沼-稻”分流排灌系统、冬闲田开发,旱地“猪-沼-菜、猪-沼-红薯、猪-沼-鱼饲料、猪-沼-苗木”五个子工程的二次污染治理工程。这一系统工程的实施,确保了小流域内农民增收,粮食安全,冬闲田开发,节省污染治理成本,冬季供气稳定,种养循环经济发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 In China in the household contract responsibility system peasant cooperative association and new family farm are brought forth continuously. In breeding family breeding and middle and small scale breeding professionals are pig breeding subject. But waste pollution from scale breeding is not ignored to agriculture eco-system, even low carbon and eco-agriculture development. Government biogas engineering investment efficiently restrain pig feces and pee etc waste pollution. But methane and biogas second pollution become serious. From 2002, Nanchang University System Engineering Research Institute and management science and engineering doctor station hang out and bulid a Nanchang University eco-energy system engineering Research and Teaching Base in Taihua Scale breeding zone in Jiangxi province pingxiang city. We established methane diffluence, delay filter, oxygen storage, five breeding and planting biological chain comprehensive utility highly effect low carbon eco-economic agriculture biomass energy industry system. Achivements of scale breeding and planting eco-energy system engineering research and application in hills got first science and technology advance prize in Pingxiang city, social first prize in Jiangxi province, second science and technology advance prize in Jiangxi province. The task of scale pig husbandry pollution controll and recycle utility integtation and application by Jiangxi province government by Science and Technology Department is 1 million yuan from 2008 to 2011. there are three scale breeding and planting low carbon eco-energy economiv establishment sample base from north to south in Jiangxi province in National Poyang lake Eco-economic Zone. One of three is Jiangxi province Debang husbandry Co. company low carbon eco-energy economic sample base, which breeds 20 thousands breeding pigs in a year. Nanchang University management science and engineering department doctor station integrates closely base construction and doctor dissertation. The dissertation is based on now research basis, looked Debang breeding and planting eco-energy zone in Jiangxi province as an important example. On the background of household contract responsibility system, the farmers’ income, the resource utilization of farming feces and pee, peasant biogas and plant company and paddy planting are included Debang eco-economic zone to realize three goals of the beauty environment, economic development and peasant biogas. With the SD feedback complexity analysis theory and approaches, a series of management strategies for eliminating pig pee accumulation pollution and biogas unstable, the engineering for implementing the strategies are also designed, which will ensure the aim of economy development and the environment in farming areas to be protected.1. First part is combined feedback archetype analysis with economic comparative advantage theory, research the present situation and tendency of the household contract responsibility system, illustrated that new family farm is a future access.This dissertation presents new family farm is the tendency of the household contract responsibility system. Through the case of Jiangxi Province, Pingxiang City, LuXi County baboo Special Farmers’ Cooperation Chen Maosheng grew 500 acre rice in 2008, this article compares family farm on a scaled operation mode with the household contract responsibility system based on detail data and comparative advantage theory in economics. Based on the data of 1978-2007 Pingxiang City agriculture development, the paper analyzes the four merits of the household contract responsibility system, indicates four increasing limits of developing process, enumerates seven viewpoints of the tendency.2. Second part analyzes in depth real development, bulids five Vertex Weighted Causal Diagrams, proves three management policies by many vertex value dynamic change law of five vertex weighted diagrams. By dynamics we illustrates that three management polices by elliminating negative feedback loop in vertex Weighted Causal Diagrams and promoting two positive feedback loop are right. In the household contract responsibility system, it carry out breeding and planting and company and household methane biogas engineering together, to develop scale husbandry eco-economic industry.Debang Pig Farming eco-economics zone with the scale livestock breeding is an industrial zone for Poyang lake eco-economics zone planning of national strategy. It is a circular economic development zone to be realized scale livestock breeding and scale planting. It is also a low carbon and eco-industrial zone of biogas energy for decreasing pollutant discharge (energy saving and emission reduction) and an innovation base built up by the cooperation of university, company, farmer, local government etc. This kind of circulation system with farming scale and planting scale and energy saving and emission reduction is a complex system. To study this system, Nanchang University created a Three-Steps Vertex Weighted Causal Diagram Dynamics Analysis Method. First, this paper analyzes in depth real development and determines core variable causal chain set of system development. It results in profit growth positive feedback loop of scale pig farming with the scale made of three positive causal chain and pig feces resources exploitation growth positive feedback loop made of four positive causal chain, which brings to light advantage of system development. At the same time the paper brings up a pig pee pollution restriction negative feedback loop of three positve causal chains and one negative causal chain which reveals the problem of system development. Secondly, Nanchang universty tests and calculates feces and pee and nitrogen, phosphorum, potassium of feces and pee of 17 kinds of pigs each month from 2005 to 2009. we get per pig profit formulation of each pig profit of small pig, breeding pig and pig. It builds growth and confine vertex weighted diagram made of two growth positive feedback loops and one confine positive feedback loop. It quantificationally reveals advantages and disadvantages of system development. Last, by connote of two growth positive feedback loops and one confine positive feedback loop, the paper brings up sustainable development management of circulation system of farming scale and planting scale and energy saving and emission reduction. By vertex value change law of five vertex weighted diagrams it proves the result of three management policies which are to bulid biogas project of bio-energy environment protection, to carry out breeding and planting and company and household methane together, to increase investment with scale in eco-economic zone. The three management policies have carried out in pig farm zone and promoted eco-economic development. The three-steps vertex weighted diagram analysis method and research are of important theory and practical significance and give the accumulation for establishing quantitificationally simulation formulation.3. Based on five vertex Weighted Causal Diagrams vertex value, we bulid the simulation equation and rate variable fundamental in-tree and simulates the system behavior variation caused by the impletation of three management strategies in future ten years and prove the right of strategies in the household family contract responsibility system.In accordance with system qualitative analysis by the vertex weighted causal diagram variable and vertex value, we divided the system into seven sub systems; which are pig slaughter, month livestock, scale breeding year profit, year pig pee, farm pee biogas, year pig feces, Peasant pig feces year biogas. For each subsystem, there is a corresponding in-tree; the total in-trees construct the rate variable fundamental in-tree model of Debang scale production ecosystem. The in-tree model is composed of seven rate variables fundamental in-trees. The root of a rate variable fundamental in-tree is a rate variable, the level variables or other rate variables, external variables, constants(parameters) which control the root only through auxiliary variables is called the leaves of the in-tree.Based on the simulation equation of three-step vertex Weighted Causal Diagrams vertex value simlation model, simulates three managemet strategies of biogas comprehensive utilization, scale breeding and pig feces utility in 2005-2020 and qualitatively proves the right of strategies. The simulation shows that biogas comprehensive engineering of pig feces and pee promtes the recyle economic benefit for scale breeding and protects the environment for sustainable development.4. Research on the solutions and effect. Forth part illustrates expatiates a model project of ex-perimental comprehensive utilization of biogas and biogas residue developed by Institute Of System Engineering of Nanchang University collaborating with Debang Husbandry Farm, mainly concerning the technological flow and effect of farming and university biogas energy exploited and methane liquid comprehensive utility engineering for pollution. The engineering operates effect.Taking the pig farm, cropland, fish feed, chestnut and plantlet in the small river watershed as an eco-economic system a Project to treat the pollution caused by the anaerobic digester efluent of Piggery wastewater was designed, it includes five sub-projects, which were the three times deposition & deconta, Ination project, the difluen tirigation’pig-biogas-paddy’, the winter unused cropland development project and the country’pig-biogas-vegetable, pig-biogas-sweet potato, pig-biogas-fish feed, pig-biogas-plantlet’ project. By implementing this systematic project, The farmers’ income growth, safety of food supplies, winter unused cropland development, save the cost of managing pollution, supplying stable biogas in winter, recycling economy of planting and breeding industry and environment cleaning were ensured in the small river watershed.更多还原