【作者】 黄小勇；

【导师】 尹继东；

【作者基本信息】 南昌大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 加速工业化进程是经济发展和劳动力就业增加的基础,但是加速工业化进程也会带来两种结果,一方面由于工业化进程的加速推进,资本深化、技术进步必然会挤出一部分劳动力；另一方面,工业化进程的加快对高素质劳动力的需求又会增加,会产生对劳动力的需求。这两方面的原因所导致的结果在其它地区可能也存在,但是对于本来就存在大量农村剩余劳动力的江西来说问题将更加严重,处理不好一方面会影响江西地区工业化进程的推进,制约经济的发展；另一方面可能会导致失业的增加,影响社会和谐,违背了就业是民生之本的政策。正是基于工业化进程的加速推进与劳动力就业之间的不协调,提出了本论文的研究主题。本文首先通过理顺工业化进程的劳动力就业效应理论基础,为建立理论分析模型提供思路；同时通过实证分析综合评价江西工业化水平,并结合当前劳动力就业总体状况,初步分析了工业化与劳动力就业的基本现象。通过这两方面的工作,为工业化进程中劳动力就业效应的系统分析提供理论和实践上的可行性。其次,在基于工业化进程中产业结构对劳动力就业结构效应基础上,建立了偏离模型、关联模型、弹性模型和熵数模型,并对江西1978-2008年三次产业产值与劳动力就业进行了偏离效应、关联效应、弹性效应和熵数效应实证分析,发现江西第三产业劳动力就业接近饱和,第一产业劳动力没能得到有效转移,第二产业劳动力就业弹性发展趋势放慢。第三,通过建立的二部门结构下工业化对劳动力就业的影响模型,实证分析工业化对劳动力就业的影响,工业化发展战略的选择会通过有效需求影响工业部门的劳动力需求,进而影响社会整体就业。江西工业部门产值对工业部门劳动力就业和非农就业都具有重要的影响,资本和劳动密集型工业发展战略的有效选择可以促进劳动力就业,并增加劳动力收入,从而促进消费,进一步促进工业产业的发展。同时通过回归分析可以发现,非农产业就业和居民收入对工业产值的增长具有重要的推动作用,因此增加收入和促进就业是工业化进程中必须首先考虑的问题。第四,通过建立资本深化对劳动力就业效应模型,实证分析工业化进程中资本深化对劳动力就业的影响,江西在1994年以后工业部门确实存在资本深化的迹象,论证了资本深化对就业会产生挤出效应和补偿效应。第五,通过建立重工业化对劳动力就业的影响模型,实证分析重工业发展对劳动力就业的影响,在重工业发展对劳动力就业的总效应中,从数据分析中可以看到收入效应是大于替代效应的,社会从业人数是不断增加的,虽然增加幅度不大；同时随着重工业的发展,技术的进步、资本深化,资本有机构成提高,江西劳动力就业呈现出索洛技术中性的状态,资本—劳动比增加,对劳动力就业存在挤出的现状；但是从长期来看,重工业发展会对社会带来具有滞后影响的“收入效应”,它会不断的促进劳动力就业,对就业的综合影响是有利的。最后,结合劳动力就业效应的理论分析及江西的实证分析结果,本文从三大方面提出了相应的策略：基于相对规模就业的工业化策略选择；基于工业化进程加速发展的劳动力就业策略选择；后金融危机时期江西劳动力就业策略选择。更多还原

【Abstract】 To accelerate the industrialization process is the foundation with the economic development and the labor force employment increase, but to accelerate the industrialization process will also bring such two results, because on the one hand the industrialization process will be accelerated, the capital deepen and the technology advancement definitely squeeze out part of labor forces; On the other hand, industrialization process’s quickening will increase to the high quality labor force’s demand, will produce to the labor force demand. These two aspect’s reason causes the result that possibly also exists in other areas, but regarding will be originally more serious on the existence massive unified purchasing of farm produce by the state according to fixed quotes question in Jiangxi. If we will process not well, on the one hand it will affect the advancement in the Jiangxi’s area industrialization process, restriction economy development; On the other hand will possibly cause the unemployment increase, the affect society to be harmonious, has violated the employment is foundation of the livelihood of the people policy. Based on uncoordinated between the industrialization process and the labor force employment, the article proposed the present paper research subject.This dissertation first straightens out the labor force effects of employment’s rationale in industrialization process, and provides the mentality for the establishment theoretical analysis model; Meanwhile through the empirical analysis and quality synthetic evaluation Jiangxi industrialization level, and unifies the current labor force employment overall condition, and preliminary analyses industrialization and labor force employment basic phenomenon. Through these two aspect’s work, the labor force effects of employment’s analysis provides in the theory and the practice feasibility for the industrialization advancement.Next, based on the industrial structure to the labor force structure of employment effect in the industrialization process, the thesis has established the deviation model, the connection model, the elastic model and the entropy digital-analog, and has carried on the deviation effect, the connection effect, the elasticity effect and the entropy number effect empirical analysis to the Jiangxi 1978-2008 year three industry output value and the labor force employment, and discovered that Jiangxi tertiary industry labor force employment close saturated, the primary industry labor force has not been able to obtain the effective shift, the second industrial labor force employment elasticity trend of development slows down.Third, through establishing influence model between the industrialization and the labor force employment’s under two department structure, the thesis analyses empirical influence with the industrialization to the labor force employment’s, The choice about the industrialization developmental strategy influences labor force demand in industry sector through the effective demand, then affects society whole employment. The Jiangxi Industry sector output value has the important influence to the Industry sector labor force employment and the non-agricultural employment, The utility preference about the capital and the labor-intensive form industrial development strategy may promote the labor force employment, and increase the labor force income, thus promote to expend, further promote the industry development. Meanwhile may discover through the regression analysis that the non-agricultural production employment and the resident receive have the important promotion effect to the industrial output growth, therefore increasing the income and the promotion employment is the paramount consideration question in the industrialization advancement.Fourth, through the establishment influence model with capital deepens to the labor force effects of employment, the thesis analyses empirical the capital deepens to the labor force employment influence in the industrialization advancement, since 1994 the Industry sector has the sign which truly the capital deepens in Jiangxi, proved the capital to deepen to the employment can produce squeezes out the effect and the compensation effect.Fifth, through the establishment influence model with the heavy industry to the labor force employment, the thesis analyses empirical influence with heavy industry development to the labor force employment, in the heavy industry development to the labor force employment’s total effect, can conclude from the data analysis that the income effect is bigger than the substitution effect, the social being employed population is increased unceasingly, although the increase scope not to be big; Meanwhile along with the heavy industry development, the technical progress, the capital deepens, the organic composition of capital enhances, the Jiangxi labor force employment presents the Solow technology neutral condition, the capital-work ratio increases, squeezes out the present situation to the labor force employment existence; But in the long run, the heavy industry development has the lagged effect "the income effect" to the society, it promotions unceasingly labor force employment, the influence will be advantageous to the employment synthesis.Finally, the union with labor force effects of employment’s theoretical analysis and Jiangxi’s empirical analysis result, this article proposed the corresponding strategy from three big aspects, The industrialization strategy choice based on relative scale employment; The labor force employment strategy choice based on accelerating the industrialization process; The Jiangxi’s labor force employment strategy choice in the period after the financial crisis.更多还原