尼泊尔、印度水资源政治关系研究

【作者】 芈岚；

【导师】 宫少朋；

【作者基本信息】 外交学院 ， 国际关系， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 位于南亚次大陆的喜马拉雅山区国家尼泊尔是一个水资源极为丰富的国家,其国内的众多河流还蕴藏着巨大的水电潜能。同属一个国际流域的印度位于其下游,国内水资源匮乏,能源紧缺现象严重,是一个颇受水问题困扰的国家。尼国内水资源的治理和开发利用可以有效缓解印度目前面临的种种困境。因此,水资源政治关系成为架构两国总体双边关系的关键性因素,受到两国历届政府的高度重视。然而,由于两国实力的悬殊,丰水但国弱的上游国家尼泊尔在处理同贫水而国强的下游国印度之间的关系时,非但没能享有地理位置赋予的主导性优势,还因自身国力的贫弱而在内政外交诸多方面受制于印度的霸权,水资源的开发利用也处于印度的垄断之下。两国间这种存在较大偏差的不均衡对局自尼泊尔拉纳家族的独裁统治时期就已然形成,并延续了一个世纪之久。自20世纪60年代开始,尼泊尔走上了一条利用外来援助来谋求与印度之平等关系的道路,水资源自然成为这种外交努力的主要依托。尼泊尔政府利用印度对本国水资源治理开发的依赖,来实现其在政治、经济等方面旨在彰显尼泊尔独立主权国地位的利益诉求。但是,鉴于印度长期以来形成的特别是针对尼泊尔政治权力架构的强势影响,再加上国际大背景的不断变动,外来援助对于尼泊尔争取自主发展的积极辅助作用有限并呈现出不稳定的变化趋势。尼国内自20世纪90年代以来愈演愈烈的权势之争也影响着两国水资源政治关系的发展和走向。本文将在详尽的历史梳理的基础之上,对上述各方面内容进行系统的分析,力求将尼、印两国非传统的水资源政治关系连同以之作为核心部分的由第三方介入才得以形成的双边对局清楚的展现在读者面前,并运用博弈论的相关概念来对部分重点环节进行解读,使文章的分析更为严谨。当下,尼泊尔政局正经历着前所未有的变革,制定对印及其他援助供给国的政策,尤其是水政策无疑将成为新政府执政能力的一大考验。对此,本文也将进行论述。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Himalayan country Nepal of the sub-continent is bestowed with abundant water resources and great potential of hydroelectric power. Her lower riparian country India, though belongs to the same water basin, forms sharp contradiction with inadequate water and energy supply, while at the meantime, India experiences serious water-related problems of many sorts, like flood control or irrigation development. The effective governance, utilization and development of water resources in Nepal will help India to see to all such issues. Hereafter, hydropolitics constitutes the core factor of the overall bilateral relationship of Nepal and India, whose successive governments always have such issue high on their agendas. Due to the considerable differences in terms of their respective state power, when dealing with strong India, Nepal’s weakness casts shadow on her water resources, which not only deprives her of the advantages stemming from geological position, but also places the whole country under India’s dominance. India monopolizes Nepal’s water resources development. Such an asymmetrical equilibrium between Nepal and India framed out when Nepal was under the Ranas’autocratic rule and had dominated Indo-Nepalese relations ever since then for more than a century. From the 1960’s, with the support of foreign assistance, Nepal began to distance herself with India by asserting Nepalese nationalism and trying to have a free hand in shaping the country’s political destiny, during which process water resources play a decisive role. However, influenced by changes in the international system on the one hand, and India’s superior presence in Nepal, especially in her power-political framework on the other, the positive effects of foreign assistance is limited and fluctuating in its nature. The fierce fight for power among and within Nepal’s political parties since 1990s has also shifted Indo-Nepalese hydropolitics to a large extent.Based upon historic facts and analyses, this dissertation aims to make explosive research about the above mentioned aspects of the bilateral relationship of Nepal and India, displaying their unique relations pattern with the involvement of third part and with hydropolitics being the core. Some relevant conceptions from the Game Theory have been adopted to interpret the characteristics of such a pattern. At present, Nepal is undergoing unprecedented changes, how to make policies towards India and other donor countries with respect to water resources will be a real test for the new government. This is also an important domain of this dissertation.更多还原