【作者】 栗宝卿；

【导师】 叶振鹏；

【作者基本信息】 财政部财政科学研究所 ， 财政学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 能源是人类生存、发展的重要基础,对经济、社会发展起着不可缺少的推动作用。随着世界经济发展,传统化石类能源的资源稀缺性以及其消耗带来环保和气候变化的压力日益显现,历史上的四次能源危机和传统能源消耗所带来的环境危害给人类可持续发展敲响了警钟,并成为当今国际政治、经济、军事、外交关注的战略重点,发展可再生、清洁的替代能源成为全球的迫切要求。以风电、太阳能、小水电、生物质等为主的可再生能源,具有清洁环保、可持续循环利用的优势,随着科技水平和制造能力的提高,市场规模逐步扩大,其价格逐步降低,部分可再生能源已初步具有商业价值,具备战略性替代能源的属性。与此同时,由于可再生能源的高技术属性,发展可再生能源已不止是解除全球常规能源逐步枯竭和国际气候变化规则带来的一系列约束,更成为拉动全球经济发展,带动新一轮能源结构调整和能源技术革命的动力,甚至把它称为人类有史以来的第四次技术革命。我国化石类能源人均资源占有量较少,过多地依赖以煤为主的化石类资源形成的经济发展模式,给我国资源、环境约束和应对国际气候变化规则带来巨大的压力,成为影响我国可持续发展的重大障碍。我国还处于发展中国家,未来经济发展还将处于快速发展时期,依赖化石类能源满足未来经济发展能源需求,无论从资源禀赋和环保以及国际气候变化规则角度看都是不允许的。我国可再生能源资源禀赋较好,根据目前的测算看,总蕴藏量达50亿千瓦以上,如果得到充分的利用,可以满足未来发展的需要,发展可再生能源成为我国现实的必然选择,对促进我国低碳可持续发展、消除资源约束、保障能源安全、调整能源消费结构、缩小城乡差距、开辟新的经济增长点、建设创新型国家以及承担全球气候变化责任,树立国际形象等方面具有重要战略意义。从能源利用历史的角度看,能源替代是个漫长的过程,历史的经验表明,即使在现有的技术条件下,一次世界性的能源系统替换至少需要50年的时间,需要人类做出巨大努力,可再生能源目前虽然已初步具备替代的属性,但其作为完全替代性能源的发展过程仍将是漫长的,需要财税政策长期地支持,对此我国要有充分的准备。促进可再生能源财税政策的实施,首先要遵从可再生能源自身发展的客观规律,从可再生能源技术原理、运行方式和特性具体分析看,可再生能源具有的高技术、外部性、产业化、资金密集型和集中式与分布式相结合的六个主要特性。可再生能源产业化发展可划分为研发、示范、产业化发展、商业化几个阶段,每个阶段的发展瓶颈和所需政策都有所不同。从产业发展的整体分析可以看出市场、研发、资本、政策是其主要动力因素,在四个因素中,市场和研发又是最重要的因素,政策和资本均围绕市场和研发两个要素展开。我国在制定和实施促进可再生能源发展政策过程中,要结合上述规律和技术及市场现状,首先要清晰目前和未来重点发展什么?什么时候发展?怎样实现高效发展等问题。从矫正可再生能源外部性、市场失灵角度看,结合可再生能源具有的准公共产品属性以及国家财政、税收职能。可再生能源发展过程中,尤其是在发展初期,国家主导,财税支持是促进其产业化进程的主要动力。借鉴世界典型发达国家在促进可再生能源发展的成功经验和失败的教训,我国在制定相关促进政策时,需要强调国家的主引导作用,避免单纯强调技术因素来促进可再生能源发展,不区别发展阶段一律施以激励政策等问题。同时要注重发展目标的清晰性、层次性,对资源禀赋和可再生能源技术详加识别、重视项目运营,保持政策的公开透明、具体化和稳定性,财税政策支持要有足够性以及注意协调相关利益方的平衡等要素。把我国的可再生能源发展建立在符合我国可再生能源资源禀赋基础上,通过建立国家统一的管理机构,清晰财税政策的目标,把财税政策与市场机制有机结合,确保政策的执行效率。在我国可再生能源产业发展中,保持资源禀赋与种类发展、资本和技术、速度与质量、速度与效益、可再生能源与常规能源、产业上下游、各发展阶段以及与国际气候变化规则七个方面的总体协调。根据可再生能源整体发展过程划分为技术研发、项目示范、产业化发展以及商业化四个阶段的规律,财税政策实施必须与不同的发展阶段相对应,且在同一时间,不同的可再生能源种类将处于不同的发展阶段。总体来说,财政政策注重于前三个阶段,税收政策侧重于后两个阶段,总体过程看,财税激励政策趋于由强转弱。从我国资源禀赋和目前的可再生能源各种类技术以及市场发育状况看,我国未来可再生能源发展的排序是积极发展小水电和风电,稳妥发展太阳能和生物质、地热能,谨慎发展海洋能是符合我国国情实际的明智选择。分析当前我国不同种类的可再生能源经济性和和政策现状表明,虽然我国可再生能源发展已取得巨大成绩,但从发展的角度看,几乎所有可再生能源种类的政策都不同程度地存在问题,主要体现为缺乏统一的管理协调机构,立法缓慢,操作性不强,资源调查、评估以及项目规划不够完善,资源环境效益缺失,财税政策支持力度不足,政策目标不明确,缺乏定期的评估、修正、调整机制,可再生能源基金管理效率低等突出问题。根据我国未来可再生能源发展路径和不同种类可再生能源的发展阶段,对我国实施的作为可再生能源补贴的主要来源之一的可再生能源发展基金未来总量收支状况进行的预测结果显示,按照我国发展需求目标,可再生能源基金不足以弥补未来的项目补贴需求,由于当前火力发电处于严重亏损的状态,尽快疏导电价矛盾已成为我国当务之急,否则,将影响到可再生能源的健康发展,一个占据电力市场较大部分的火力发电巨额亏损,而可再生能源一枝独秀的局面是不可能出现的。由于当前可再生能源的节约化石类能源以及更加环保的成本外部性并没有显性化,根据当前技术条件和国际市场相关交易情况,对资源与环境的外部成本内部化进行量化测算结果显示,在完全成本的口径下,目前可再生能源并不比传统能源价格更高,且未来随着资源、环境约束的进一步增强,可再生能源随着技术进步和规模的扩大,其产品价格将更具有竞争性。此外可再生能源本身具有的因地制宜开发的特点,我国分布式可再生能源发展财税政策目前还有缺失,符合可再生能源自身特性(分布式能源)出发的市场政策亟待建立；面向公众团体促进分布式可再生能源发展的激励引导政策应尽快建立和完善。根据我国可再生能源发展中存在的突出问题和目前的政策现状,我国财税政策需要进行进一步的优化,主要包括财税支持的信息依据要充分；可再生能源产业的上下游以及横向要统筹；财税政策要与市场机制相结合；财政税收政策要综合引导,各有侧重以及保持政策具体公开而透明、建立定期评估机制等原则。在财政支持具体政策方面,需要加大财政支持力度,清晰财政支持目标效果,可再生能源发展成本负担兼顾东西部差距,借鉴《京都议定书》的“共同但有区别的责任”施行差别化的负担机制；优化可再生能源基金管理、发挥政府采购作用等。在税收政策方面,需要尽快清晰和完善促进可再生能源的适用税法、清晰增值税、所得税、营业税激励细则。关于资源税和碳税问题,根据我国目前的资源和环境以及经济技术现状,应该采取小步走的渐进式方案,总体看“征比不征好、早征比晚征好”此外在促进可再生能源发展过程中,除财政税收激励政策之外,还有一些其他重大问题和矛盾需要尽快解决,比如：强化可再生能源资源调查和评估,制定科学的发展规划；建立国家级的统一协调管理机构；传统电力企业与电网企业的生存状况和对可再生能源的影响不容忽视,协调好相关利益是可再生能源可持续发展的重要基础；积极疏导当前电价矛盾和以电价机制引导促进可再生能源发展；重视资本市场和金融市场对可再生能源发展的激励作用等等方面都是应该引起重视的问题。总之,本文大量的实证材料,从人类能源利用历史、资源环境出发,分析可再生能源发展的资源、环境、气候变化三大外界因素的影响和能源转换难度,论证促进可再生能源发展的战略性和紧迫性。从可再生能源技术、经济性分析出发,论证了可再生能源固有的客观规律和准公共产品属性,并对可再生能源发展现状以及未来的趋势,进行了全面、整体的分析。通过考察国内外发展的历史经验和教训,结合中国国情实际以及可再生能源规划,考察可再生能源发展环境和突出矛盾,试图跳出单纯促进可再生能源发展本身,从更宽广的视野分析我国可再生能源可持续发展环境,提炼出内外部影响的突出问题和矛盾。从分析出的问题和矛盾出发,结合未来发展的规模、未来的成本走势及补贴政策等进行预测和分析,从财税支持的渠道和方式以及相关利益方的补偿等方面进行综合归纳,提出详细而具有现实意义的促进可再生能源发展政策指导原则和具体的建设性意见。寄希望于对促进我国可再生能源发展起到一定的借鉴作用。鉴于可再生能源种类较多,难以——详细论证,本文侧重于占可再生能源较大比例的电力部分进行了论述。更多还原

【Abstract】 [Abstract] Energy is essential for the existence and development of mankind and its civilization. As the reserve of traditional fossil fuels are becoming limited and the environmental disasters arise thereof become common place, people are getting more and more aware of the importance of substituting the fossil fuels with renewable clean energies.Wind, solar, small scaled hydro, biomass are in the list of renewable energies. With the introduction of new technologies, it becomes possible to develop renewable energy resources in cost effective manner with large scale. The renewable energy industry that attracts billions of public and private investment is becoming strategically important for every country around the globe.China is a vast country with limited fossil energy reserve. Traditional fossil energy that still dominates its energy consumption and drives its fast growing economy is also pressuring China with environmental pollution, climate change problems and criticism from international community. As the largest developing country in the world China has no choice but to move ahead in the environmental friendly way for a sustainable growth. And the choice is decreasing the use of fossil and increasing renewable energy share.Present estimation shows that China has sufficient renewable energy resource that could help the nation to complete its modernization and urbanization process without great difficulties, and at the same time easing the conflict of economic development and environmental protection when rationally developed.While China has to rely on traditional fossil energy for quite a certain period to support its economic growth, it should be aware that transiting from the traditional fossil fuels to renewable energy is not an overnight task, but a time-consuming job that might last decades of time.Government policies in financing and taxation will have great impact on the development of renewable energy and suitable policy will promote the quick growth of renewable energy development. Appropriate government policy will attract more investors to venture in new energy development and put the new development in correct and healthy track. Chinese government has already been providing policy and financing support to encourage investment to join the renewable energy development.Until commercialization, renewable energy development normally undergoes research, piloting, industrialized experiment stages. Financial and taxation policies have to be arranged in such a way that the requirement at different stages could be met and the development of renewable energy will not be affected.During the initial stage when the renewable energy is still at research, it needs the government to take main responsibility to provide policy and financial support. In addition, government coordination plays a very important role in promoting new technology and attracting investment for renewable energy development. Other factors may also be considered when making policies:comprehensive investigation of renewable energy resource, general development planning, introduction of sufficient financing and technologies, availability of renewable energy technologies, Financing support should focus on research, piloting and experiment stages, and proper taxation policy is more important when commercialized.Furthermore, even at the same time, different policies will be applied to different types of renewable energy at different development stages. According to the present situation in China in terms of renewable natural resources, renewable energy technologies and the market, the strategy for renewable energy development is to develop small-scaled hydropower stations and wind farms as the top priority, followed by developing solar, biomass and geothermal energy, and ocean energy will be developed with caution.An analysis into the current economic efficiency and policy conditions for renewable energy in China shows that in spite of the great achievements made in renewable energy, almost all policies have to be optimized to match the quick development of renewable energy. Major optimization efforts should be placed on the lack of unified coordination, slow legislation, deficiency in resource investigation, assessment and project planning, lack of environmental benefits of resources, insufficient financial and tax policy support, unclear policy target, lack of regular assessment, amendment and adjustment system, low efficiency at renewable energy fund management and etc.Looking at the future development of renewable energy in China, a projection at the balance of payment of the future volume of renewable energy development fund, one of the major sources of renewable energy subsidy, demonstrates that renewable energy fund is not sufficient enough to meet the need for subsidy for future projects. As the thermal power plants are in serious deficit, it is a pressing task to solve the tariff problems. Otherwise, the healthy development of renewable energy will be affected. It is impossible for the thermal power plant, which account for a big percentage of power market to operate at big loss and at the same time the renewable energy enjoys a booming development.Currently, the external cost of the saving of fossil fuels and more environmentally friendly has not been explicitized. Based on current technical conditions and relevant transactions in international market, we measure the external cost of resources and environment in internal cost dimensions. The result shows that in the caliber of full cost, the price for current renewable energy is no higher than that of traditional energy. Moreover, as restraints on resources and environment further enhance, coupled with technical advancement and expansion of scale, the price of renewable energy will become more competitive.In addition, the development of renewable energy has the feature of suiting to the local circumstances. Currently, financial and tax policies on the development of distributed renewable energy are still vacant, market policies in compliance with the self characteristics of renewable energy (distributed energy) have to be set up urgently. The incentive policies to promote the development of distributed renewable energy should be set up and polished as quickly as possible.In order to maintain the sustainable development of the renewable energy in China, a couple of policy and legal issues have to be optimized, including the backup of the information system, coordination with upper, lower and other related sectors, introduction of market-oriented mechanism, comprehensive policy guidance, and regular assessment of implemented policies.It is also to be clearly defined before providing financial assistance. Taxation regulations (including VAT, income tax, business tax) must also be updated to facilitate the development of the renewable energy. Resource taxation and carbon taxation must be gradually introduced to match the development of the renewable energy, and the early the better to impose such taxesIn addition to the legal and financial support of the renewable energy development, other issues must also be addressed including assessment of renewable energy resource, general planning, government coordination to encourage power and grid companies to invest and accommodate the renewable energy with reasonable tariff, investment from capital market and financial market will also promote the healthy development of the renewable energy.The article uses examples to emphasize the importance and urgency in developing renewable energy in China and at the same time the importance of preserving natural resources, protecting environment and preventing climate change. The role of government support in financing and regulation and the future prospective of renewable energy development are also discussed in the article.更多还原