财政货币政策协调问题研究

【作者】 张毅峣；

【导师】 张通；

【作者基本信息】 财政部财政科学研究所 ， 财政学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 财政政策、货币政策是现代宏观经济管理的主要组成部分,是现代国家政府进行宏观调控的最主要手段。近现代世界经济发展的历程,深刻印证了上述论断,特别是在世界各国携手应对2008年由于次贷危机引发的金融海啸时,财政货币政策的相互协调,发挥了巨大作用。因此,面对我国不同时期出台的不同的财政政策、货币政策,一个令人关注的问题是：财政政策和货币政策的协调取得了怎样的效果?如何测度和评价财政货币政策协调在经济增长、价格水平及金融稳定方面的作用和影响?这些问题,对指导我国今后的财政和货币政策出台,极富理论和实践意义。本文在参考大量国内外相关文献的基础上,以最近时期国外有关财政货币政策协调理论分析框架为基础,运用计量经济学有关方法,尤其是新近发展的动态计量经济学分析方法为研究工具,以我国财政货币政策协调效应的测度为中心,利用我国1994-2009年财政、货币和宏观经济的有关季度数据,对我国财政货币政策协调进行理论分析和实证研究,试图定量研究财政政策和货币政策对经济增长、价格水平及金融稳定目标的影响,评析政府财政货币政策协调效果,进而提出一定的政策建议。全文共分为七章及附录。第一章为导论部分,主要涉及本文的一些铺垫性和介绍性的问题,介绍了研究财政货币政策协调的理论和实践意义,介绍了国内外典型文献对财政货币政策协调的研究情况,最后给出了本文的结构安排和研究方法,并对本文的主要创新进行了总结,为未来更进一步的研究提出了参考方向。第一章为本书后面的研究奠定了基础。第二章主要对各个经济学派的财政货币政策协调观点进行总结分析,主要包括马克思列宁主义、中国特色社会主义理论和凯恩斯学派、新自由主义学派、公共选择学派以及博弈论中有关财政货币政策协调的观点。第三章主要对财政货币政策的运行机制进行分析。首先介绍了财政政策和货币政策的内涵、政策目标和主要的政策调控工具；其次,分别在IS-LM模型和IS-LM-BP模型下,分析了财政政策和货币政策的作用机理,在此基础上,对财政政策和货币政策的局限性进行了分析；最后,介绍了财政货币政策协调的“双紧模式”、“双松模式”、“松紧搭配模式”和“中性政策模式”。第四章对我国财政货币政策协调效果进行了分析,首先介绍了研究方法和指标选取,然后,在对经济增长、价格水平和金融稳定建立VAR模型的基础上,进行协整检验和脉冲响应分析。定量研究了财政政策和货币政策对上述政策目标的影响,对财政货币政策在这三个领域的协调进行了评析。第五章研究了财政政策和货币政策协调的国际经验,分别对美国、德国和日本的财政和货币政策的目标、工具和历史演变进行了分析,在此基础上,得出了五点值得我们借鉴的经验。第六章研究了财政与货币政策协调配合的路径,分别选择国债、税收和利率、社会保障制度和政策性金融等几个财政和货币政策结合部来具体分析财政货币政策协调的路径,为我国财政货币政策的协调指明了具体的实现方式。第七章对本文的主要观点和结论进行了总结,提出了在协调我国财政货币政策中存在的问题,并提出了一些具有建设性的政策建议,希望能够为财政货币政策协调在我国的宏观调控中发挥出更积极的作用提供一些借鉴。最后,本文总结了1991—2009年重要的财政政策和货币政策,通过表格的方式在附录中给出。财政货币政策协调问题是宏观调控的重要内容,既是经济学研究的常青树,又是各国现实经济实践中经常面临的问题,尤其在各国应对次贷危机引发的全球金融危机时,这一问题就更加突出。客观而言,财政货币政策协调问题由于涉及的领域比较多,各种目标、变量复杂,故而虽然研究颇多,但大部分研究成果多局限于相关理论的研究,并且更多地是对财政政策和货币政策分别进行研究,紧密围绕财政货币政策协调的相对较少,更为重要的是,由于数据分散、不统一等原因,在财政货币政策协调的数理评价问题上更是研究较少。纵览本文,主要的创新点包括：第一,系统、全面地梳理了财政货币政策协调的理论。本文的理论梳理部分,既包括马克思、列宁主义也包括中国特色社会主义理论探索的财政货币政策协调观,西方经济学方面,不但包括常见的凯恩斯学派,自由主义学派,同时也对公共选择学派、博弈论的财政货币政策协调观均进行了论述。第二,创新性地提出了财政货币政策协调目标。本文认为财政货币政策协调目标不但包括传统的经济增长、价格问题、充分就业、国际收支平衡,同时也需要将金融稳定纳入其中。第三,对近二十年来中国财政货币政策协调效果进行了初步研究分析。通过分析近二十年来中国经济增长、价格稳定以及金融稳定的特征和情况,寻求支持前述目标的财政货币政策,计量研究了财政货币政策协调对前述目标的影响,得出了中国财政货币政策协调效果显著的结论。第四、对财政货币政策协调中存在的问题以及政策协调在推动中国“走出去”业务发展和政策协调需要规划先行方面提出了一些建议。本文运用计量经济学的有关方法,对我国财政货币政策协调的效应进行了较为全面的研究,得出了很多有意义的结论。但是,尽管经过反复雕琢、精益求精,本文中仍然存在着很多局限和不足,首先由于时间和篇幅的限制,本文在很多方面分析还不够深入。其次,由于目前理论界关于金融稳定这一政策目标的研究还非常有限,本文对金融稳定这一宏观调控目标虽做了尝试性研究,但论述仍不够深入。第三是关于协调效果的评价,本文最初想通过设立一系列指标体系来直观的表现协调的效果,但难度太大,原有的研究思路不得不进行调整,即后来本文呈现的以财政政策、货币政策各自对宏观调控目标的效果间接地评价协调的效果。第四是对财政货币政策协调路径的分析不够深入,特别是在政策性金融问题上,由于政策性金融的转型是世界各国普遍面临的问题,如何通过政策性金融体现财政货币政策协调问题,还有待深入研究。最后在研究提高协调效果建议方面,很多内容还不够具体。这些问题还有待在进一步的研究中不断地克服和改进。更多还原

【Abstract】 Fiscal policy and monetary policy are major components of modern macroeconomic management. They are the most important means of macroeconomic control. Modern history of the world economy, profoundly confirms the thesis, especially in the countries of the world’s working together to address the subprime mortgage crisis, triggered the financial tsunami, since 2008, the coordination between fiscal and monetary policy plays a significant role.Therefore, confronting with the different fiscal policy and monetary policy of our country in different periods, matters of concern are:fiscal policy and monetary policy coordination achieved what effect? How to measure and evaluate the fiscal and monetary policy coordination in economic growth, total employment, price level, balance of payments and financial stability role and influence? These issues, to guide our future fiscal and monetary policies introduced highly theoretical and practical significance.In this paper, reference to a large number of domestic and foreign literature, based on the most recent period of fiscal and monetary policy coordination Abroad theoretical framework based on the use of econometric methods, especially the recent development of dynamic econometric analysis as a research tool to Effects of Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination in China’s measure for the center, using our 1994-2009 fiscal, monetary and macroeconomic data in the quarter, we concern fiscal and monetary policy coordination on the theoretical analysis and empirical studies to quantify the impact of five policy objectives on fiscal policy and monetary policy, to comment the government fiscal and monetary policy coordination assessment results, and to make certain policy proposals. This paper is divided into seven chapters and an appendix.The first chapter is the introduction part, mainly related to some of foreshadowing of this article and presentation issues, introduced the theoretical and practical significance of the financial monetary policy coordination, introduced domestic and foreign literature on the typical co-ordination of fiscal and monetary policy, finally, introduced the structure of this arrangement and method, and summarized the main innovation of this paper for future reference. The first chapter of this book laid the foundation for later.The second chapter on the various economic schools of fiscal and monetary policy coordination point of view were analyzed, including the Keynesians, neo-liberal, socialist theory, public choice theory and game theory in the coordination of fiscal and monetary policy point of view.The third chapter analyzes the fiscal and monetary policies of the operating mechanism. Firstly, introduced the fiscal policy and monetary policy content, policy objectives and major policy control tools; secondly, analyze fiscal policy and monetary policy mechanism in IS-LM model and the IS-LM-BP model respectively, on this basis, analyze fiscal policy and monetary policy on the limitations; Finally, coordination of fiscal and monetary policy introduced "double compact model", "double loose mode", "elastic matching model" and "neutral policy model."The forth chapter analyze the effect of coordination of fiscal and monetary policy in China, firstly, review the 1991-2009 of fiscal and monetary policy in China in five stages, and then, based on the VAR model established in the economic growth, the price level and financial stable, we analyze the co-integration tests and impulse response. Quantitative study the effect of fiscal policy and monetary policy on the three major policy goals, analyze the fiscal and monetary policy coordination in these there areas.The fifth chapter we study the international experience of fiscal policy and monetary policy coordination, respectively, analyze the fiscal and monetary policy targets, instruments and historical evolution of the United States, Germany and Japan respectively, in this basis, reach a five-point worth learning experience.The sixth chapter we discuss the path of the coordination of fiscal and monetary policy, we select national debt, taxes and interest rates, the social security system and financial policy, and several combined department of several fiscal and monetary policies to analyze the path of fiscal and monetary policy coordination. Point out the specific implementation for the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies of China.In the seventh chapter, we summary the main points and conclusions of this paper, put forward the problems in the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies, and put forward some constructive proposals on the policy, in the hope of providing some reference to the fiscal and monetary policy coordination in the macroeconomic control to play a more active role in China.Finally, the paper summarizes important policies and monitories policy between 1991 and 2009, given in the appendix by way of the form. Fiscal and monetary policy coordination issue are an important part of macro-control, it is not only an evergreen in Economics research, but also a problem faced by every state in the practice, especially in the responding to the sub-prime crisis triggered by the global financial crisis, this problem becomes even more prominent.Objectively, fiscal and monetary policy coordination issues in the areas of multi-objective, complex variables, so although there are many studies, most research results limited in relevant theory research, and more is the fiscal policy and monetary policy research respectively, there is not so much Focusing on fiscal and monetary policy coordination, more importantly, due to data dispersion, not uniform and other reasons, fiscal and monetary policy coordination in the mathematical evaluation are even more infrequent. Overview the article, the main innovations include:Firstly, comb the theory of fiscal and monetary policy coordination systematically and comprehensively. This theoretical part of this article does not only include common Keynesian, liberal school, but also discuss the coordination of fiscal and monetary policy of public choice theory, game theory and the theory of socialist harmonious society.Secondly, the paper raises the goal of fiscal and monetary policy coordination innovatively. This goal of coordination of fiscal and monetary policy that include not only traditional economic growth, prices, full employment, balance of payments, but also the financial stability.Thirdly, the paper analyzes the fiscal and monetary policy coordination effect in the past two decades of China. With the analysis of the effect of policy coordination on economic growth, prices, full employment, balance of payments and financial stability, we know the history of the coordination of fiscal and monetary policy in China.Fourthly, the paper analyzes the fiscal and monetary policy coordination in promoting China’s "going global" business development and promotion of urbanization. This article uses the methods of econometric, analyzes the effects of fiscal and monetary policy coordination for a comprehensive measurement and research, draw many meaningful conclusions. However, despite repeated craftsmanship, there are still many limitations and shortcomings in this article. First of all, due to time and space limitations, there is also much analysis not deep enough in many ways. Secondly, as the theoretical circles on the policy objective of financial stability are also very limited, these goals of financial stability while the macro-control study did try, but the discussion is still not deep enough. The third is the effect on the coordination of the evaluation, the paper initially through the establishment of a series of indicators to direct the performance of the coordination system to the effect of frustration too difficult, my original research ideas had to be adjusted to fiscal policy and monetary policy objectives of each of the macro-control effects of indirect evaluation of the effectiveness of coordination, that is later presented in this paper. The fourth is the path of fiscal and monetary policy coordination, the analysis is not deep enough, especially in the financial policy issues as the policy is the transformation of the financial problems facing all over the world, how to reflect the fiscal and monetary policy financial policy coordination, also need further investigation. Finally, results of recommendations to improve coordination, a lot of content is also not specific enough. These issues have to stay for further studies to overcome and improve continuously.更多还原