【作者】 吴丽丽；

【导师】 李宝瑜；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 统计学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 在21世纪初,原油等大宗商品价格快速上涨。全球化为原油价格影响中国经济提供了更多可能,中国转型经济现实又使这种影响可能不同于完全市场经济国家。本文借鉴国外文献资料,立足中国实际,从全球经济运行角度审视中国经济,在生产、贸易与金融的相互联系中讨论原油价格对中国经济的影响。各章内容如下：第1章：导论；第2章：文献综述；第3章：原油价格变动的原因；第4章：原油价格变动影响中国经济的逻辑分析；第5章：原油价格变动对中国经济增长的影响；第6章：原油价格变动对中国价格水平的影响；第7章：原油价格变动对实体经济与虚拟经济交互作用的影响；第8章：原油价格变动对财富转移的影响；第9章：结论、建议、及待研究的问题。其中,第5章和第6章是一枚硬币的两面,两章结论一致；第5-7章是原油价格变动影响中国经济的实证与模拟分析。第8章是对第5-7章研究结论的总结和升华,也与第4章的逻辑分析遥相呼应。本文工作特点如下：1.选择全球视野。认识事物的角度有多种,可以单独观察自身特点,也可以观察它与外界联系。以厦门为例,可以说它有多少人口,分几个区,有没有机场,也可以将厦门与大连比较,其文明和开放程度是否更高?对外交往是否更多?空气环境是否更好?可是,在国内研究工作中,除非主题是对两个事物进行比较,人们较少从联系的角度分析问题。当然,选择哪个角度视具体情况确定。中国开放政策和全球化浪潮是本文选取全球视野审视中国经济的现实基础,也是理解中国经济的捷径。将原油价格变动对中国经济影响研究放在国内外比较联系之中,这是时代要求。全球视野在本文各章均有反映。第4章在国内外联系中展开逻辑分析,第5、6章在中美联系中研究原油价格变动对中国经济增长、价格水平的影响,第7章将中美经济抽象为实体经济与虚拟经济展开研究。2.以问题为导向。原油价格变动影响一系列中国经济问题,这些问题环环相扣。本文就是一个不断提出问题和回答问题的过程。3.以数据为基础,并在此基础上形成判断。本文创新如下：1.提出并回答了在和平开放条件下原油等大宗商品价格上涨如何通过生产、贸易、金融活动影响国际财富分配。国际利润分配是和平、开放条件下中国宏观经济管理面临的现实问题,本文选择的角度是在生产、贸易及金融联系中研究原油价格变动对国民财富的影响,它不同于以往的仅从不同国家存量原油资源及原油国际贸易价值量变动角度考虑问题。原油价格上涨导致中国财富转移的历史条件包括：①发达国家货币及金融监管法规政策；②原油价格上涨致使国内能源处于较低水平,最终形成国内能源资源低价管制局面；③出口产品缺少定价权。财富转移途径主要是铸币税、进出口贸易、风险交易。在原油价格对财富转移影响问题上,本文讨论了中国重工业出口产品生产和贸易链上各类企业之间的利润变动情况,提出利润转移理论,这不同于“收入转移理论”中认可的消费和投资途径。2.从国内外制度差异角度,解释了2002-2008年中国GDP及出口高增长之迷。中国经济增长举世瞩目。2002年-2008年中国每年GDP增速都在9%以上,超过1998-2001年的任何一年,其中,2007年中国GDP增长率达到13%；同期美国除了在2004年GDP增速为3.6%,其余年份在2-3%之间。中国在2002-2008年何以实现如此高速增长?美国货币及金融监管政策引起原油等大宗商品价格变化,进一步引起国内外能源资源价格差异变化,以及中国高耗能及资源型产品价格优势变化,原油价格上涨促使中国高耗能及资源型产业快速扩张及其产品出口高速增长。3.发现在21世纪初中国CPI和工业品出厂价格指数长期偏离的原因与原油价格上涨及国内外能源资源定价制度差异有关。本文建议如下：1.在宏观经济管理中重视国民财富增长,协调经济增长与国民财富增长关系。2.掌握进出口产品定价权。3.协调财富各构成要素关系,适时增加黄金储备。4.在财富管理中协调财富创造与人的因素,当前的任务进行收入分配体制改革,增加社会总消费。5.督促世界货币发行国家通过货币政策及金融监管措施维护原油等大宗商品价格稳定。6.协调中国与其他国家货币政策。7.运用全球视角分析中国问题。8.通过改革能源资源定价体制,调整经济结构,实现经济增长方式转变。改革能源资源定价体制可以经过三步骤：第一,协调国内外能源资源价格关系。协调的目的是抑制国内能源资源过度开采,抑制能源资源型产业过度投资和产品过度出口。第二,在中国经济进入平稳运行轨道之后实行能源资源高价管制。提高国内能源资源价格对经济结构调整将起到事半功倍的效果。可以实施普遍的能源资源高价管制,或者只针对能源资源型出口生产企业实施高价管制。第三,市场定价。价格调整对象主要包括成品油、电煤、电力、水等能源资源价格。2008年末中国已经及时调整了成品油定价机制,协调国内外成品油价格,效果很好。今后一段时期的任务是电力、水等资源价格调整及体制改革,改革必须充分考虑“三农”及弱势群体利益。9.主要通过利益诱导方式调控经济运行。相对于行政命令、行政考核、道德说教等,利益诱导的调控方式更好。10.发展对外商业。此外,本文还提出如下问题：1.如何协调中国与其他国的货币政策?2.如何超越衍生资本?3.如何在原油等大宗商品价格及资产价格快速变动条件下调整收入分配体制?更多还原

【Abstract】 The effect of crude oil price to China is different from other market economy country. Because in the early 21st century the important character of the world economy is that bulk commodity prices change rapidly, and China which is a transition economy country implement open policy.Chinese open policy provides the possibility that international oil price change affect Chinese economy, the transformation of Chinese economic reality makes the influence different from other market economy countries.Considering Chinese practical situation, scanning Chinese economy in world and in the connection of production, trade, and finance, this paper makes a reference to the overseas achievement and discusses the effect of crude oil price to Chinese economy.The structure is as follows:Chapter 1 is the introduction. Chapter 2 is the literature review. Chapter 3 is the reason of crude oil price fluctuation. Chapter 4 proposes the assumption of the relations between crude oil price and Chinese economical operation, mainly between crude oil price and national wealth. Chapter 5 is the relations between Chinese economic growth and crude oil price. Chapter 6 is the relations between Chinese price level and crude oil price. Chapter 5 and Chapter 6 is the two sides of the same coin, the analysis results of two chapters are consistent. Chapter 7 is the influence of crude oil price on funds flow between the real economy and virtual economy, and the influence seems to be on funds flow between China and America. Chapters 5-7 are empirical analysis and simulation. Chapter 8 is Conclusion, suggestion, and problems to study.The characteristic of this paper is as fllows:1. The global vision. The reason is the globalization and Chinese open policy, and using it is a shortcut to understand the development of Chinese economy.2. The idea is question-oriented.3. The judgement is based on the data.The innovation is as follows:1. This paper puts forward and answers how the flunctuation of crude oil price cause the transfer of national wealth, and develops the wealth transfer theory.International wealth transfer is a vital problem for China on the condition of open policy and world peace.This paper is the first to tade all factors, such as the production, trade and financial activities, into consideration when the author discuss the influence of crude oil price to international wealth transfer. And in the past people only consider the value change of oil resource.The rising of crude oil price lead to the transfer of wealth by several channels, the paper mainly discusses risk trade, international trade, seigniorage etc.International oil prices rising, Chinese low energy resources price control and export products lacking Pricing Right are combined actions which made wealth transfer possible.2. From seeing the limitation of subject and the difference of energy pricing system between home and abroad, the paper explains why Chinese economic growth, especially export growth, is so rapid in 2002-2008.Chinese economic growth is so remarkable. In 2002-2008, increment speed of Chinese GDP every year was more than 9%,that is more than any year in 1998-2001, and in 2007 the growth was reach to 13%, but in 2002-2008, the growth of United States was lower than 3.6%. How to explain Chinese higher level of GDP?To answer this question, we must understand the Chinese reality, and understand the difference between the reality and the premise of contemporary economic theory and the premise of statistical service theory.To understand Chinese GDP we need have a deep understanding of the reality and the limitations of each subject, and we can’t compare it with other country GDP in a simply way. In China even if GDP accounting methods integrate with the international, GDP cannot overcome the effects of its resource pricing system. In the 21st century the largest reality of China is the lower energy pricing system which is the most significant difference in economic system between home and abroad.There are some factors to explain Chinese export growth.one is the differences in energy pricing system between home and abroad, the other is Fed (American Federal Reserve committee) policy and financial regulator that lead to dollar glut and the rising of international bulk commodity price. And they all give cause for the rapid growth of domestic energy-consuming and the price advantage of high energy-consuming export products and high resource-consuming export products.3. The paper finds the reason why Chinese CPI was deflected from EPI for a long time at the beginning of the 21st century. Therefore this paper suggest reforming Chinese pricing system of energy and other resources, such as coordinating petroleum products price at home and abroad etc.In addition, this paper put forward two problems. Firstly, how to coordinate the monetary policy between China and other countries? Secondly, how to transcend derivative capital? Thirdly, how to readjust income distribution when assets price change so rapidly?更多还原