【作者】 郭香俊；

【导师】 杭斌；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 统计学， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 经济转轨以来,尤其是在二十世纪九十年代以后,中国城乡居民的储蓄率不断上升,伴之而生的是中国城乡居民消费需求的持续下降,这种状况不但影响着我国整体经济的持续健康发展,而且有越来越严重之势。转轨时期中国城乡居民为什么要进行储蓄?为什么要不断提高储蓄?这似乎是一个老生常谈的问题了,但事实上无论是理论发展还是经济实践都需要我们继续对其展开研究。借鉴西方的预防性储蓄理论,本文对经济转轨时期中国城乡居民的预防性储蓄行为进行了定量研究,借此本文试图对上述两个问题作出回答。由于西方的经济理论脱胎于成熟的市场经济体制,偏重于解释规范市场中的问题,而中国由计划向市场的大规模制度转型在历史上尚属首次,中国的诸多经济问题都有自己的特殊性,因此本文遵循了这样的研究路线：①认识西方预防性储蓄理论的边界条件和适用范围；②分析经济转轨时期中国的经济现实对西方预防性储蓄理论假设条件的突破或违背；③根据中国实际构建中国城乡居民预防性储蓄行为理论和分析框架；④选取数据进行实证检验；⑤总结结论,提出建议。全文的具体内容如下：第一章是导论。该部分论述了本文的研究目的和意义,说明了国内外预防性储蓄的研究现状,总结了本文理论构建和实证研究的基本方法,并交待了全文的主要内容和创新之处。第二章是西方预防性储蓄理论和研究方法的综述。这一章对西方预防性储蓄理论的发展过程、基本内容、主要成果和理论实质进行了详细介绍,并总结了西方文献对预防性储蓄进行定量研究的四种方法,比较了它们的优劣,为接下来的研究奠定了基础。第三章检验西方预防性储蓄理论在中国的适用性。本章首先详细研究了西方预防性储蓄理论的显性和隐性假设条件,然后检验中国的经济现实是否突破或偏离了这些假定。研究发现：西方经典的预防性储蓄理论都是在跨期最优的分析框架下展开的,其基本假定有：消费者是前瞻性的,他对未来进行理性预期,并只从现在和未来的消费中获取效用。他的未来收入是不确定的,他追求一生的效用最大化,并据此对当前消费进行选择。除了这些显性假设,西方经典的预防性储蓄理论还包含两项隐性假设,即制度确定性假设和价格确定性假设。这些显性假设和隐性假设共同构成了西方预防性储蓄理论的边界。事实证明,经济转轨时期中国的经济现实已经突破了西方预防性储蓄理论的边界,主要包括：①过去的消费对中国城乡居民的效用水平存在着显著影响；②转轨时期,中国城乡居民面对着制度的不确定性；③价格确定性假设不再成立等。这三方面内容意味着经济转轨时期中国城乡居民预防性储蓄行为的内在特征和外在环境都比西方预防性储蓄理论更复杂,我们需要建立符合中国实际的中国城乡居民预防性储蓄行为理论。第四章建立经济转轨时期中国城乡居民预防性储蓄行为理论模型和分析框架。这一章首先分析了上述三方面假设的突破使得中国城乡居民的消费／储蓄行为与西方标准跨期最优模型下的消费／储蓄行为相比较发生的巨大变化,主要包括：①经济转轨时期的中国城乡居民不仅是一个预防性储蓄者,还是一个习惯形成者。与西方标准模型中预防性储蓄者的效用函数不同,他的效用函数是跨期不可分的。相较于单纯的预防性储蓄者他更不喜欢消费的波动,行为更谨慎。②制度的不确定性使中国城乡居民主观感受到的不确定性远远超过了客观上存在的不确定性,使他们的行为过度谨慎。制度的不确定性产生了预防性储蓄效应。③经济转轨时期中国城乡居民所面临的教育、医疗、住房等支出具有刚性支出的特征,它们价格的不断上涨产生了两种效应：增量效应和存量效应。其中增量效应是由于教育、医疗、住房等支出是刚性的,不可削减,所以它们价格的不断上涨等同于居民不断地收到收入拟减的警告,相当于一种类收入不确定效应,将会使居民进行预防性储蓄,本文把这种效应称为刚性支出价格上涨的增量效应；存量效应则是由于随着教育、医疗、住房价格的不断上涨,这三种刚性支出的总额也在不断上升,如果居民预期到未来某一期在这些项目中存在一次性的大额支出,由于不可削减,家庭将会把这种一次性的大额预期支出提前摊派到各期,即以其为目标提前进行储蓄,本文把这种效应称为刚性支出价格上涨的存量效应。这时,与西方经典跨期最优模型不同的是：中国居民不仅跨期配置资源,而且跨期配置支出。增量效应和存量效应在西方标准的预防性储蓄模型中是不存在的,但在中国居民的预防性储蓄行为中扮演着重要的角色。此外刚性支出价格上涨的存量效应也使流动性约束的作用发生了改变,当未来收入部分确定时,居民所受到的流动性约束的程度将与其每一期的储蓄额密切相关。依据上述分析结果,本文将习惯和制度不确定引入了常相对风险规避效用函数(CRRA),构建了经济转轨时期中国城乡居民的效用函数,接着在考虑了转轨时期刚性支出价格上涨的增量效应和存量效应后,本文又全新构建了经济转轨时期中国城乡居民的预算约束条件,最后形成了跨期最优框架下的经济转轨时期中国城乡居民预防性储蓄行为理论模型。遗憾的是,在建立了我国城乡居民预防性储蓄行为理论模型之后,由于现有的数学技术无法求得模型的解,我们无法获得可用于实证检验的中国居民的预防性储蓄行为方程,所以本文又在上述理论模型基础上,结合Carroll的缓冲存货理论方程建立了中国城乡居民预防性储蓄行为的分析框架。在这个分析框架中,财富收入比作为被解释变量,收入不确定、流动性约束、制度不确定、习惯形成、教育、医疗和住房等三种刚性支出的价格上涨共7种因素作为解释变量被引入模型。这个框架隐含着经济转轨时期中国城乡居民预防性储蓄行为的变动机制,主要包括两方面内容：①经济转轨时期中国城乡居民存在着预防性储蓄目标,这个目标不仅源于未来收入的不确定,而且还受到了习惯形成、流动性约束、制度不确定、教育和医疗以及住房等刚性支出价格不断上涨等诸多因素的影响,这些因素的存在使得经济转轨时期中国城乡居民的储蓄目标远远超过了西方经典模型所能解释的目标值,同时也构成了经济转轨时期中国城乡居民进行高储蓄的内在动因；②经济转轨时期中国城乡居民的预防性储蓄目标在不断提高,中国城乡居民的预防性储蓄行为是围绕着不断提高的储蓄目标,在Carroll式的谨慎和不耐心的相互替代中不断地进行着动态调整。本文认为正是这种动态调整机制造成了中国城乡居民储蓄率的持续上升。第五章和第六章是实证研究部分,二者采用第四章建立的分析框架分别对经济转轨时期中国城镇居民和农村居民的预防性储蓄行为进行了实证分析。第五章包括了中国城镇居民预防性储蓄行为的静态因素分析、中国城镇居民预防性储蓄行为的动态调整机制检验以及中国城镇居民不同收入等级预防性储蓄行为的实证研究三部分内容。第六章则包括了中国农村居民预防性储蓄行为的静态因素分析和中国农村居民预防性储蓄行为的动态调整机制检验两部分内容。中国城镇居民和中国农村居民预防性储蓄行为静态因素的实证分析都采用了Panel Data横截面固定效应模型,并经过了Panel Data单位根检验、总体估计、分段估计、稳健性检验以及预防性储蓄重要性估计等分析步骤。稳健性检验都是通过引入经济增长率和人口红利两个控制变量来观察模型的稳健性。预防性储蓄重要性的估计则借鉴了Carroll(1998)的思想,基本思路是：根据各个时段已经建立的模型,假设其它因素保持不变,而使其中某一个因素水平上升或下降一定比例,譬如10%,通过计算居民储蓄存款由此的变动情况大略窥探中国城镇居民预防性储蓄的重要性,二者都分别估算了在不同时段各因素水平分别下降或上升10%、20%和30%以及各种因素统一变动10%、20%和30%时中国城乡居民储蓄存款的变动情况。中国城乡居民预防性储蓄行为动态调整机制的实证检验在第五章进一步推导出的一个动态调整理论模型基础上进行。该模型将居民的预防性储蓄行为分成了两部分,第一部分是居民围绕t-1期的预防性财富目标Wt-1*所做的Carroll式的短期动态调整,第二部分则是由于各种因素的变化而使t期产生新的财富目标Wt*,居民围绕新旧财富目标的差额所进行的长期动态调整。结合本文第四章的分析框架,上述理论模型最后转化成了一个可估模型,根据这一模型第五章和第六章分别建立了一个动态线性Panel Data模型,对中国城乡居民预防性储蓄行为的短期动态调整、长期动态调整以及调整速度分别进行了实证检验。中国城镇居民不同收入等级预防性储蓄行为的实证研究在一个总容量为2983的面板数据样本上进行。文章对经济转轨时期中国城镇居民低、中、高三个收入等级的预防性储蓄行为分别进行了研究。由于数据所限,本文主要研究了收入不确定、习惯形成以及教育、医疗这两项刚性支出品价格的上涨对不同收入等级城镇居民预防性储蓄的影响,而制度不确定、流动性约束以及各地区住房价格上涨三因素由于无法找到相应的代理变量所以暂未作考虑,同时模型又增加了“攀比效应”和”收入差距”两个控制变量。第五章和第六章共估计了34个计量模型,获得了丰富的估计结果,整体上验证了第四章的理论观点。主要结论为：①预防性储蓄是经济转轨时期中国城乡居民高储蓄的主要原因。②收入不确定、流动性约束、制度不确定性、习惯形成、教育和医疗以及住房等刚性支出品价格的不断上涨是经济转轨时期中国城镇居民进行预防性储蓄的主要原因；而经济转轨时期中国农村居民进行预防性储蓄的原因则主要源于收入不确定、习惯形成以及教育和医疗价格的不断上涨。制度不确定和住房价格虽然对农村居民储蓄造成了正向影响,但是二者在统计上不显著。由于资料有限,关于流动性约束对转轨时期中国农村居民储蓄的影响,本文未获得有效结论,只能待日后再做改进。③经济转轨时期,收入不确定、流动性约束、习惯形成等七种因素对中国城乡居民预防性储蓄的影响存在结构性变化,一方面是这些因素的显著性随时间发生着变化,另一方面是其系数估计值的大小及其排列次序也随时间发生着转变。④预防性储蓄重要性的估计显示,中国城乡居民的预防性储蓄是重要的,但近年来中国城镇居民预防性储蓄的增速在减缓,而中国农村居民的预防性储蓄增速在上升。⑤中国城乡居民的确都存在着显著的Carroll式的由于谨慎和不耐心的相互替代而围绕t-1期的预防性财富目标Wt-1而进行的短期动态调整行为,也存在着显著的为实现t期新的财富目标Wt*而进行的长期动态调整行为,其中中国城镇居民的调整速度为0.59,中国农村居民的调整速度为0.55,二者的调整速度都很快。这种动态调整机制造成了经济转轨时期中国城乡居民储蓄率的持续上升。⑥中国城镇居民低、中、高三个收入等级居民的预防性储蓄行为存在着差别,其中中等收入等级居民的预防性储蓄最重要,而高收入等级在2002年之后基本上不存在预防性储蓄行为。分时段的估计结果则显示：在1995年之前,各因素对三个收入等级居民预防性储蓄行为的影响基本上都不显著,1995年-2001年,教育和医疗价格上涨对三等级的预防性储蓄都产生了显著的正向影响；2002年之后,教育和医疗价格上涨以及消费习惯对中收入等级和低收入等级居民的预防性储蓄行为产生了显著影响。第七章总结全文结论,然后简要分析了各种预防性储蓄影响因素背后的深层原因,并特别指出城乡居民教育和医疗价格不断上涨以及城镇居民住房价格持续上涨的主要原因在于这些产品的供求失衡,而价格弹性低、支出刚性和供给约束是其供求失衡的根源,文章最后提出了相关建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since China’s economic transition, particularly in the nineties of the twentieth century, Chinese urban and rural residents’savings rate has kept rising, coupled with declining consumer demand. This situation affects not only our country economic healthy development, but also has a worsening trend.Why do Chinese urban and rural residents save during the transition period? Why do they raise their saving constantly? This seems to be a commonplace problem, but in fact both theoretical development and economic practice require us to continue its study. Learn from the western precautionary savings theory, this paper approaches a quantitative research on Chinese urban and rural residents’precautionary saving behavior during the economic transition period which attempts to answer the above two questions.The western economic theory grew out of the mature market economy system and emphasized on the interpretation of the problems in regulated market, while China is experiencing a large-scale institutional transformation from planned economy to free market which is the first time in history. China’s many economic problems have their own specificity. Therefore, this article follows this line of research. First, understanding the western precautionary saving theory’s boundary conditions and scope of application. Second, inspecting China economic reality in economic transition period and analyzing its breakthrough or violation to the assumptions of western precautionary saving theory. Third, according to China’s reality, building Chinese precautionary savings behavior theory and analytical framework. Forth, selecting the data for empirical test. Fifth, summing up the conclusions and give recommendations. Specific study content of the paper is as follows.The first chapter is the introduction. This section discusses the research purpose and significance and shows the study status of precautionary saving theory at home and abroad. It also sum up the basic method of this paper’s theoretical and empirical research and set out the main content and innovations.ChapterⅡis an overview of western precautionary saving theory and research methods. This chapter describes the development process, basic content, major achievements, and essence of the theory of western precautionary saving theory in detail, and summarizes the four methods of quantitative study, compares their advantages and disadvantages, in order to laid the foundation for future research.Chapter III inspects the applicability of western precautionary savings theory in China. This chapter begins with a detailed study of the explicit and implicit assumptions of western precautionary savings theory, and then tests whether China’s economic realities breakthrough or deviate from these assumptions. It is found that western classical theory of precautionary savings is carried out under inter-temporal optimum analytical framework. Its basic assumptions are that consumers are forward-looking; they make rational expectations for future, and only obtain utility from current and future consumption. Their future income is uncertain and they seek to maximize a lifetime utility through make proper current consumption choices. In addition to these explicit assumptions, there are two implicit assumptions which are the system certainty and price certainty assumptions. These explicit and implicit assumptions together constitute the boundary of western precautionary saving theory. Facts have proved that the reality of China in economic transition period has already broken through the boundaries of the western precautionary saving theory. First, for China’s urban and rural residents, there exist a significant impact of past consumption on their utility. Second, during the transition period, China’s urban and rural residents face a systematic uncertainty. Third, price certainty assumption no longer holds, etc. The three aspects means that during the transition period, precautionary savings behavior of Chinese urban and rural residents is more complex than the western theory in intrinsic characteristics and external environment. In line with China’s reality, we need to build precautionary savings behavior theory of Chinese urban and rural residents.Chapter IV builds theory model and analysis framework for China’s urban and rural residents’precautionary savings behavior during the economic transition period. This chapter first analyzes the great changes of China’s urban and rural residents’ consumption/saving behavior compared with westerners under the standard model of inter-temporal optimal consumption/savings behavior, caused by the above-mentioned breakthroughs to the three assumptions. First, China’s urban and rural residents during economic transition period is not only precautionary savers, but also savers of habit formation. His utility function, not like the westerners under the standard theory of precautionary savings, can not be separated inter-temporarily. Compared with simple precautionary savings, they are do not like the volatility of consumption, so they behave more cautiously. Second, the uncertainty of the system causes Chinese urban and rural residents feel subjective uncertainty which is far more than the real uncertainty, therefore they act overly cautious. The uncertainty of the system produced a precautionary savings effect. Third, during economic transition period, Chinese urban and rural residents face rigid expenditure such as health care, education, housing and so on which prices have been rising. Their rising prices had two effects: incremental effects and stock effects. Where incremental effect is due to health care, education, housing and other expenses are rigid and can not be reduced, so their rising prices affects consumers the same as receive warning of decreasing income, which is equivalent to a income uncertainty and causes precautionary savings. In this paper, the above effect is called the incremental effect of rigid expenditure’s rising price. At the same time, with prices rising of health care, education and housing, the total amount of spending is also rising, if residents expect a large one-time expenditures which can not be reduced, households will in advance put the large one-time expenditure by part in each life-time period and do precautionary saving. This effect is called the stock effect of rigid expenditure’s rising price. Different with consumers under the standard model of inter-temporal optimal, Chinese residents do not only allocate resource, but also expenditures inter-temporally. Incremental effects and stock effects do not exist in west standard model of precautionary savings, but play an important role in the precautionary savings behavior of Chinese residents, and the stock effect makes the role of liquidity constraints changed. The extent of liquidity constraints will affect the amount of savings in every period under the premise that future revenues is partly determined. According to the above analysis, this article introduces habit and systematic uncertainty in common relative risk aversion utility function (CRRA), builds the utility function of Chinese urban and rural residents during economic transition period, and then consider the incremental effect and stock effect of rigidity expenditure’s rising prices, establish the assets evolution equation and income uncertainty expressions, finally forms a inter-optimal precautionary savings behavior theory model of China’s urban and rural residents during the economic transition period.Unfortunately, after the establishment of the theoretical mode for precautionary savings behavior of Chinese residents, we are unable to obtain a precautionary savings behavior equation of Chinese residents which can be used for empirical tests, because the existing mathematical techniques can not achieve a solution of the model. Therefore, chapter IV then builds an analytical framework on the basis of the above-mentioned theoretical model, combined with Carroll’s buffer stock theory. In this analytical framework, wealth income ratio is used as a dependent variable, while income uncertainty, liquidity constraints, the system uncertainty, habit formation, rising price of education, health care, housing and other rigid spending, a total of above seven kinds of factor are used as independent variables. It implies that during the transition period, the precautionary saving behavior mechanism of Chinese urban and rural residents mainly involves two aspects. First, during the economic transition period, Chinese urban and rural residents have precautionary savings goals, It is not only due to the uncertain future income but also rooting in the habit formation, the system uncertainty, the rising prices of health care and education etc. and the liquidity constraints, which allowing the Chinese people saving goals far beyond that of the standard Western precautionary savings theoretical model. This paper argues that it is the origin of Chinese urban and rural residents high saving in transition period. Second, The precautionary savings target of Chinese residents continually increases. Chinese people’ precautionary saving behavior engages in a dynamic adjustment around the goal of increasing savings with a Carroll-style alternative between caution and impatient. This article indicates that it is such a dynamic adjustment mechanism that lead to Chinese urban and rural residents’saving rate rising constantly.Chapter V and VI is the part of the empirical studies. Using the analytical framework established in the fourth chapter, they analyze respectively Chinese urban residents and rural residents’precautionary savings behavior. Chapter V include three parts. They are the static factor analysis and dynamic adjustment mechanism test of precautionary saving behavior of Chinese urban residents as well as the empirical study on precautionary saving behavior of Chinese urban residents in different income levels. Chapter VI include the static factor analysis and the dynamic adjustment mechanism test for Chinese rural residents precautionary saving behavior.The static factors empirical analysis for Chinese urban residents and rural residents precautionary saving behavior both adopt the Panel Data fixed cross-sectional effect model. Both execute a Panel Data unit root test, a overall estimates, a sub-estimates, a robustness testing as well as a precautionary saving importance estimation. Robustness tests are executed through introducing two control variables into models which are economic growth rate and the demographic dividend. The estimate method of precautionary saving importance, however, is borrowed from Carroll’s idea. During the estimation, it keeps other fators constant and leaves one of factors increasing or decreasing a percentage, for example ten percent. And then it calculates change value of household desposit money of Chinese urban and rural residents in the base of the established each stage model above. Chapter V and VI estimated separately change value of household deposit money of Chinese urban and rural residents when each factor decreased or increased by ten percent, twenty percent and thirty percent seperately as well as when they change ten percent, twenty percent and thirty percent together.The dynamic adjustment mechanism’s empirical tests of precautionary savings behavior of Chinese urban and rural residents both are based on a theoretical model which is deduced in chapter V. It includes two parts. The first part is short-term dynamic adjustment around the wealth goal of the prior period with carroll-style. The second part is long term dynamic adjustment which residents continually increase their wealth goal. Through empirical analysis, if the effect of the first part is significant, resident’s short-term dynamic adjustment behavior do exist. And if the second part’s variable coefficients estimated results are significant, then Chinese people’s wealth target change exactly. If each variable eatimate value is positive, we can judge the wealth target is increasing, residents’s long-term dynamic adjustment behavior do exist. The adjustment speed can be calculated through the coefficient of the lag dependent variable. According to this theoretical model of dynamic adjustment, Chapter V and VI establish a dynamic linear Panel Data model to do the empirical test for dynaic adjustment mmechanism of precautionary saving behavior of Chinese urban and rural residents.The empirical research on precautionary saving behavior of Chinese urban residents in different income levels are carried on a total capacity of 2983 panel data samples. This chapter research the precautionary saving behavior of China’s urban residents in low, medium and high income levels on the economic transition period respectively. Since the data constraints, this section studies the impact of income uncertainty caused by unemployment, as well as the rising education price and the rising health care price, on precautionary saving behavior of different income level urban residents. While the uncertainty system and liquidity constraints as well as the rising regional housing price are not yet be considered due to their corresponding proxy variable can not be obtain. In addition, two control variables, which are bandwagon effect and income gap, are added into the model.Chapter V and VI construct thirty-four models altogether. They obtain a wealth of estimation results and fully verify the theoretical point of view claimed in the fourth chapter. First, precautionary saving is the main reason of high saving of Chinese urban and rural residents in the transition period. Income uncertainty, liquidity constraints, institutional uncertainty, habit formation, education, health care and housing prices are all important reasons which result in precautionary savings of Chinese urban residents during the transition period. However, the reasons of precautionary savings of Chinese rural residents in transition period are mainly due to income uncertainty, habit formation as well as education and health care prices rising. The system uncertainty and housing prices have positive effects on precautionary saving of Chinese rural residents, but they are not significant statistically. Due to data limits, the impact of liquidity constraints to saving of Chinese rural residents during the transition period has not been analysed effectively. It can only be improved in the future. Second, during the transition period, the impact of income uncertainty and other factors to precautionary saving of Chinese urban and rural residents have structural changes. On the one hand the significance of these factors changes with time, on the other hand the size and sequence of coefficient estimation are changed. Third, the estimation results of precautionary saving importance indicate that precautionary savings of Chinese urban and rural residents are important, but in recent years, its growth is slowing. However, the research show that Chinese rural residents precautionary saving is accelerate. Forth, urban and rural residents in China do exist the short-term dynamic adjustment behavior resulting from the mutual substitution between Carroll-style non-patience and cautious around the prior saving goal. There also conduct a long-term dynamic adjustment significant. Adjustment speed of Chinese urban residents was 0.59 while China’s rural residents is 0.55. Both adjustment speed are fast. This dynamic adjustment mechanism makes household saving rate of Chinese urban and rural continue rising in the economic transition period. Fifth, precautionary saving behavior of Chinese urban residents is different in low, middle and high income grade. From the year of 1995 to 2001, it is the price of Education and health care that produced significant positive impact to the three income-grade precautionary savings. After the year of 2002, however, it is the education price and health care price and spending habits that make a significant impact to the middle-income grade and low-income grade.ChapterⅦsums up this article, and then it makes a brief analysis of what are essential causes behind several factors resulting in the precautionary saving. It specially points out that the rising education price and health care price of Chinese urban and rural residents, as well as the continually rising housing price of Chinese urban residents are owing to the imbalance between supply and demand of these products. It also points out that the low price elasticity, expenditure rigidity, and supply constraints are the root causes of the imbalance between these supply and demand. The article concludes with recommendations.更多还原