【作者】 张波；

【导师】 郭连成；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 世界经济， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 中美两国在20世纪70年代初时关系解冻,经济交往虽有所增加,但总量依然微不足道。1978年底,中国开始实施改革开放政策,1979年,两国政府签署了《中美贸易协定》,相互给予贸易互惠国待遇,从此,中美两国掀开了双边贸易发展的新篇章。1979-2008年中美两国贸易年均增长率达到约27%,堪称世界之最。目前,美国是中国第二大贸易伙伴国,中国也是美国第二大贸易伙伴国,美国的第一大进口来源地和第三大出口市场。在中美贸易总额迅速发展的背景下,中美贸易失衡问题也日趋突出,根据美国普查局统计数据,近些年来美中贸易逆差一直在扩大,1990年美中贸易逆差为104.3亿美元,2000年快速上升到838.3亿美元,2006年超过2000亿美元,为2325亿美元,2008年达到2663.3亿美元。2008年,中方统计的顺差额为1708.6亿美元,中国商务部统计从2000年起,美国商务部统计从1994年起,中国对美国的贸易顺差已经超过日本,成为美国最大的贸易逆差来源国。贸易逆差问题的日益突出必将影响到两国贸易关系的正常发展,因此,全面研究中美贸易失衡问题,从而找出有效解决中美贸易失衡的方案,这不仅有利于解决中美贸易摩擦问题,而且也能够保证两国未来经贸关系健康、稳定的发展。本文的研究方法主要包括历史分析法、实证分析方法、对比分析方法和数理模型与定量分析方法。即本文从历史角度分析美国对华巨额贸易逆差问题；中美贸易的互补性、中美贸易的摩擦和外商在华直接投资部分都采用了实证分析法,美国对华出口管制部分采用了实证分析方法和对比分析方法；对中美贸易失衡的发展趋势是通过建立模型进行定量分析完成的。本文共包括七章：第一章是导论部分,着重介绍了选题的背景和意义以及国内外学者、政府机构和研究机构对中美贸易失衡问题的研究情况,主要包括贸易统计差异与中美贸易失衡、原产地原则的不健全与中美贸易失衡、美国对华出口管制的错位问题、人民币汇率与中美贸易失衡问题、外商在华直接投资和国际产业结构转移与中美贸易失衡问题、中美两国的内部结构失衡问题。最后介绍了本文的研究思路与结构、研究方法及创新与不足之处。第二章是贸易失衡相关理论综述,本部分根据国际货币基金组织制定的《国际收支手册》给出国际收支的定义,从而引出贸易平衡和贸易失衡的内容。关于贸易失衡的相关理论,主要包括重商主义理论、绝对比较优势和相对比较优势理论、相互需求理论、要素禀赋理论、自由贸易理论与保护贸易理论、弹性分析法、吸收分析法、货币分析法等。第三章介绍了中美贸易的发展历史、中美贸易的依存度情况,并分析了中美贸易失衡的总量、商品结构、变化过程和基本特征。中美两国对贸易失衡的规模存在很大分歧,因此本章对中美贸易失衡规模进行了修正,主要包括对双边贸易数据用离岸价(FOB)进行修正,调整香港转口贸易的因素,考虑服务贸易的因素进行调整以及剔除外商直接投资的因素。以2005年为例,通过以上修正中方统计的贸易顺差额与调整前缩减了57%,美方缩减了63%。第四章是本文的核心部分,本章重点分析中美贸易失衡的原因,主要包括外在原因和内在原因两个方面。外在原因主要是由于国际产业结构的转移和外商在华直接投资引起的中美贸易失衡,即美国的贸易赤字正在从对东亚国家的贸易赤字转移到对中国的贸易赤字,中美贸易失衡问题不是中美两个国家之间的问题,而是中国、美国及东亚其他经济体三者之间的问题；同时,外商投资企业是中国在与美贸易中取得贸易顺差的主体,快速增长的美中贸易逆差是与跨国公司在华投资运营的增长直接相关的。内在原因主要分析了美国的储蓄、投资失衡,美国对华出口管制因素所导致的中美贸易失衡；中国的内部结构失衡,中国的加工贸易快速发展等因素所导致的中美贸易失衡。而且,由于中美贸易的互补性大于竞争性,也使中美两国贸易失衡在某种程度上有其必然性。第五章介绍了中美贸易失衡对两国及双边贸易的影响。首先分析了中美贸易失衡给美国带来的正负效应,正效应包括：美国从中国的加工贸易中和互补优势中获益,促进美国产业结构升级,帮助美国抑制了通货膨胀等。对美国带来的负效应是很小的,如使美国陷入美元贬值-资本外流-美元贬值的恶性循环,带来一部分人的失业以及拉大了美国国内的收入差距。对中国的影响则是负效应大于正效应。负效应包括：容易造成中国外汇资产缩水,资源耗竭速度加快,增加人民币升值的压力,在国际分工中可能陷入比较利益的陷阱,使中国的GDP增长受到巨大损失等。正效应包括增加了中国的外汇储备,有利于解决中国人口就业的问题和转变出口产品结构等。最后,本章分析了中美贸易失衡带来的贸易摩擦问题。第六章是中美贸易失衡扩大或缩小的因素分析,主要研究了影响中美贸易失衡扩大的因素,如加工贸易和香港转口贸易的因素、外商对华投资的因素、美国对华出口管制的因素、亚太地区产业结构转移的因素、美国经济自身的因素导致美国大量的进口、中美两国经济互补的因素等。影响中美贸易失衡规模缩小的因素,如美元走势疲软、服务贸易的因素、中美出口产品的收入弹性因素、中美两国政府采取的政策因素以及美国经济下滑所导致的中国对美国出口放缓等因素。中美贸易失衡的发展趋势取决于能使它扩大的因素和缩小的因素博弈的过程。本部分还建立了模型对中美贸易失衡的趋势进行预测,预测的结果为在短期内(2009-2015)中美贸易失衡的规模仍将扩大,但从长期来看,中美贸易应该走向平衡。第七章分析了应对中美贸易失衡的措施。中国应完善统计制度和规则,不断地扩大内需,调整产业结构和贸易结构,实现加工贸易的深化升级,实施市场多元化战略,增加对美国的直接投资,谨慎对待人民币升值,充分利用WTO争端解决机制等。同时,两国要进一步完善对话机制,使中美贸易关系能够健康、平稳地可持续发展。结论：随着中美贸易的快速发展,中美贸易失衡问题越来越严重。中美贸易失衡的问题既有内因又有外因,不应将责任归咎于某一方。中美两国对失衡的规模虽然有严重的分歧,但其实考虑贸易的统计口径、转口贸易、服务贸易、外商直接投资等因素后,中美贸易失衡规模大大缩小。贸易失衡问题使中美贸易摩擦呈上升趋势,因此中美两国应采取战略积极应对,从而使两国的经贸关系继续向前推进。同时通过建立模型可知,在短期内中美贸易失衡将扩大,但长期来看,中美贸易失衡应走向平衡。本文的创新与不足：本文的创新之处在于,通过横向和纵向对比,运用定量方法分析了美国对华出口管制的错位问题;很多学者对美国在华直接投资对中美进出口贸易的影响做了定量分析,本文则从投资视角对中美进出口贸易增长的潜力进一步做了定性分析；中美贸易失衡的未来走向取决于一些因素的博弈过程,本文通过找出使中美贸易失衡扩大的因素和缩小的因素,分析了中美贸易失衡的发展趋势。本文的不足之处是,只用较短的篇幅来说明中美建立FTA有助于解决贸易失衡的问题,但没有深入分析中美两国建立FTA的可行性,需要进一步加以研究。同时,对人民币汇率的变动是否会更好地解决中美贸易失衡问题并没有通过模型进行定量分析,以后应加强这方面的研究。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the early 1970s, China and U.S. thawed their relations. Although they increased their economic relation, the total quantity wasn’t significant. By the end of 1978, China implemented opening-up policy. In 1979, the countries’governments signed "Sino-U.S. Trade Agreement", they gave reciprocal trade treatment to each other, so China and U.S. formed a new situation in bilateral trade development. From 1979 to 2008, the average annual growth rate of Sino-U.S. bilateral trade was 27%, it was the most in the world. Currently, U.S. is the second trade partner of China. China is United States’ second trade partner, the first importing market and the third exporting market. When Sino-U.S. trade volume increased rapidly, the imbalance problem of Sino-U.S. trade also surfaced. According to U.S. Census Bureau Statistics data, the trade imbalance between U.S. and China expanded during the past two decades. In 1990, U.S.-China trade deficit was 10.43 billion dollars; it increased 83.83 billion dollars in 2000. In 2006, it was over 200 billion dollars, in 2008, it was 266.33 billion dollars. In 2008, the trade surplus that China counted was 170.86 billion dollars. China’s trade surplus with U.S. overtaken Japan and became the largest trade deficit country in 2000 and in 1994 that China’s Ministry of Commerce counted and United States’ Ministry of Commerce counted. When the trade deficit problem highlighted, it must affect the normal development of trade relations, therefore through comprehensively researching the Sino-U.S. trade imbalance problem, it could find effective solutions to solve it. It was not only good for resolving the Sino-U.S. trade friction, but it also guaranteed the healthy and stable development of the two countries future economic and trade relations.The researching methods of this thesis included history analysis method, empirical analysis method, comparative analysis method, mathematical model and quantitative analysis method. That means it analyzed the huge trade deficit between U.S. and China from historical perspective, the parts of complementary analysis of Sino-U.S. trade, Sino-U.S. trade friction and foreign direct investment in China that affected Sino-U.S. trade imbalance problem used empirical analysis method. The part of America exporting control to China used empirical analysis method and comparative analysis method. The part of development trend of Sino-U.S. trade imbalance completed through establishing model to quantitatively analyze.This thesis includes seven parts:The first part was the introduction part. In this part, it introduced background and significance of choosing this issue, and the researching status quo of domestic and foreign scholars in the following aspect:trade statistics difference with Sino-U.S. trade imbalance, unsound origin rules with Sino-U.S. trade imbalance, America exporting control dislocation problem, RMB exchange rate with Sino-U.S. trade imbalance, foreign direct investment in China and international industrial structure transferring with Sino-U.S. trade imbalance, and then it introduced writing ideas, structure, researching method, innovations and limitations of this thesis.The second part was theoretical summary of related trade imbalance. It gave the definition of international payment according to the《International Payment Manual》that IMF drew up, and led to the contents of trade balance and trade imbalance. It introduced related theories of trade imbalance; it mainly included mercantilist theory, absolute advantage theory and relative comparative advantage theory, mutual demand theory, factor endowment theory, free trade theory and protection trade theory, flexibility analysis method, absorption analysis method and monetary analysis method.The third part introduced development history of Sino-U.S. trade; it illustrated trade dependence between China and United States, and analyzed total quantity, commodity structure, change process and characteristic of Sino-U.S. trade imbalance. China and United States had differenct ideas about imbalance size. This part amended imbalance size between China and United States, it included that using free on board amended bilateral trade data, adjusted Hong Kong re-export trade factor and service trade, and excluded foreign direct investment factor. Through amending above factors, China counted trade surplus reducing 57%, U.S. reducing 63% compared with data without adjustment in 2005.The fourth part was the core of this thesis. It analyzed the reasons of Sino-U.S. trade imbalance. It included external reasons and internal reasons. External reasons were international industrial structure transferring and foreign direct investment in China which caused Sino-U.S. trade imbalance, that’s to say, U.S. trade deficit transferred from East Asian countries to China, China-Sino trade imbalance problem not only included China and United States, but also it included China, United States and East Asian, at the same time, foreign-invested enterprises were the main bodies that China got trade surplus, trade deficit of United States and China was directly related with foreign direct investment in China. Internal reasons included imbalance of United States’ saving and investment, U.S. export control policy to China which caused Sino-U.S. trade imbalance. China’s internal structure imbalance, development of China’s processing trade which caused Sino-U.S. trade imbalance. What’s more, the complementary of Sino-U.S. trade was bigger than competition, therefore it was inevitable that Sino-U.S. trade appeared imbalance problem to some degree.The fifth part analyzed the effects to China and US and bilateral trade that trade imbalance brought. Firstly, it introduced positive and negative effects that Sino-U.S. trade imbalance brought to U.S., positive effects included that U.S. got benefits from China’s processing trade and complementary advantages, the U.S. enterprises in China got profits, it promoted U.S. industrial structure to upgrade. The negative effects that Sino-U.S. trade imbalance brought to U.S. was small, for example, it made U.S. fall into the vicious cycle of depreciation of U.S. dollar-the outflow of capital-depreciation of U.S. dollar, brought unemployment problem and expanded income gap. The negative effects that Sino-U.S. trade imbalance brought to China were bigger than positive effects. Negative effects included that it decreased value of China’s foreign deposite, increased speed of using resources, and increased pressure on RMB appreciation, fell into the trap of comparative advantage in international division, made China’s GDP suffer huge loss and so on. The positive effects included that it increased foreign exchange reserve; it was benefit for solving China’s employment problem and changed exporting product structure and so on. Lastly, it introduced the trade friction problem that Sino-U.S. trade brought.The sixth part analyzed factors that expanded Sino-U.S. trade imbalance or factors that reduced Sino-U.S. trade imbalance. It introduced factors that expanded Sino-U.S. trade imbalance, for example, processing trade factor, Hong Kong’s re-export factor, foreign direct investment factor, U.S. export control policy to China, Asia-Pacific region industrial structure transferring factor and so on. It analyzed factors that reduced Sino-U.S. trade imbalance, for example, the weak trend of U.S. dollar, service trade factor, income elasticity of products that China and U.S. exported, the governments of China and U.S. used policy factor and American economy regression caused China’s reduced export. Therefore, the trend of Sino-U.S. trade imbalance size depended on game process of expanding factors and reducing factors. Then it established model to predict trend of Sino-U.S. trade imbalance, the result of prediction was that from 2009 to 2015, the size of Sino-U.S. trade imbalance will expand, but in the long term, Sino-U.S. trade will be balanced.The seventh part introduced the countermeasures to solve Sino-U.S. trade imbalance. China should improve statistic regulation, continue to expand domestic demand, adjust industrial structure and trade strucdture, and make processing trade realize upgraded, implement strategy of market diversification, increase direct investment in United States, caustiously treat RMB appreciation, make full use of WTO dispute solution mechanism and so on. At the same time, the two countries should improve the dialogue mechanism and then make Sino-U.S. trade relations be healthy and sustainable development.Conclusion:with Sino-US trade developing rapidly, Sino-US trade imbalance problem was more and more serious. Sino-U.S. trade imbalance had internal factors and external factors; it should not be blamed on one side. Although China and U.S. had serious difference in trade imbalance size, after considering trade statistic method, re-export trade, service trade and foreign direct investment trade factors, the size of trade imbalance will reduce. At the same, trade imbalance problem made Sino-U.S. trade friction increase, China and U.S. should actively use strategy to cope with trade friction and made two countries economic and trade relation move forward. Through using model, China-Sino trade imbalance size will expand in the short term, but from the long run, China-Sino trade imbalance will be balanced.Innovations and limitations:the innovations of this thesis included that it quantitatively analyzed wrong position problem of United States export control to China through vertical and horizontal comparision. What’s more, many scholars quantitatively analyzed the effects of American direct investment in China on Sino-U.S. export and import trade; this thesis qualitatively analyzed potential growth of Sino-U.S. trade from investment aspect. The future trend of China-Sino imbalance depends on game theory’s process of some factors, this thesis found making China-Sino trade imbalance expand and reduce factors to qualitatively analyze the development trend of Sino-US trade. The limitations of this thesis were using short length to illustrate that Sino-U.S. establish FTA will solve Sino-U.S. imbalance problem, but it didn’t analyzed possibility of establishing FTA, it need to further research. At the same time, whether changes of RMB exchange rate will be better to solve Sino-U.S. trade imbalance, it didn’t use model to quantitatively analyze, it need to further research.更多还原