【作者】 赵金煜；

【导师】 杨仁树；

【作者基本信息】 中国矿业大学（北京） ， 工程管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 本文综合运用系统科学、经济学、管理学、应用统计学等领域的投入产出分析、博弈理论、风险管理理论、因子分析模型、未确知测度理论等相关理论和方法,较为系统深入地研究了矿建工程项目风险管理的效益及动因、矿建工程项目关键风险因素的识别方法、评估方法、应对策略、监测预警机制和保障机制。首先,运用投入产出理论分析矿建工程项目管理的投入和效益,并进一步分析了项目参与主体进行风险管理的动力,构建了业主和承包商合作进行风险管理的演化博弈模型,得出了他们合作进行风险管理的条件；其次,在文献研究的基础上,设计和发放调查问卷,运用因子分析方法对调查数据进行分析,识别出了矿建工程项目的关键风险因素；再次,建立了矿建工程项目风险的未确知评价模型,解决了矿建工程项目风险因素的定量评估问题,为矿建工程项目风险应对决策提供依据；最后,分析了矿建工程的风险应对策略,建立了矿建工程风险监控管理理论模型,从风险管理理念、组织、技术、人员、制度、法律法规等方面建立了矿建工程风险管理保障体系。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper comprehensively uses the related theories and methods of input-output analysis, game theory and risk management theory, factor analysis model, the unascertained measure theory in the fields of system science, economics, management, statistics application, and systematically studies mine construction project risk managements efficiency and motivation, the mine construction project key risk factors of identification method, evaluation methods and strategies, monitoring and warning mechanism and the safeguard mechanism. Firstly, using the theory of input-output analyzed the mine construction management of cost and benefits, and further analyzed the project subject motivation in the risk management, building the owner and the contractor evolutionary game model of risk management of their cooperation conditions. Secondly, based on the study of literature, design and sending questionnaire, and using factor analysis method to survey data analysis, we can identify mine project general key risk factors. Again, the establishment the project risk assessment unascertained model, resolving the project risk of quantitative evaluation for construction of the mine, which provide basis for decision-making, Finally, analyzing the strategies to control mine engineering risk, constructing of the mine risk management mechanism, we can establish construction of the mine project risk management system from the risk management concept, organization, technology, manager, system, laws and regulations and so on.更多还原