【作者】 柳云平；

【导师】 梁雄健；

【作者基本信息】 北京邮电大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 下一代网络的发展是世界网络发展的大趋势,也是中国电信业长远发展的内在要求。政府的管制政策很大程度上决定了市场的行为,影响着中国未来市场的走向。随着电信行业技术、经济方面近二十年来的迅速发展,以及我国正处于信息化促进工业化,实施国家经济竞争力的后发优势,进行跨越式发展战略,电信和信息行业对我国的发展影响越来越深远、重要。经过多年的发展,国家政策的支持,我国语音业务已经相当普及,语音作为基本需求已经得到较好的满足,而近年来兴起的互联网业务极大地促进了网络资源和数据业务的发展,数据、多媒体成为了下一个发展阶段电信重点发展的对象。长远来说,升级到数据消费为主的电信网络成为必然趋势。当初的网络设计思想,基本上是一种网络服务于一种服务模式。随着技术的进步,逐渐由以IP为基础的下一代网络来提供多种业务,并且业务的开发与网络层相分离,人们可以根据需要,方便地开发多种业务。现存的各个网络进行技术改造以后逐渐会融入到统一的下一代网络基础设施中。下一代网络分为基础层和业务层进行管理。由于随时随地的服务,接入网逐渐引入多种形式,有Wi-Fi mesh, WiMAX,飞蜂窝,VDSL2, HSPA,LTE等多种形式,本地接入网的长期垄断特性将被打破,多种业务的开发将导致市场呈现越来越多的竞争性。随着我国电信2008年重组完成,三家全业务运营商使产业融合进一步加强,3G牌照的发放和网络建设正在大规模进行。下一代网络的骨干核心网仍然具有明显的自然垄断性。为了解决下一代网络中,新的管制难题,本文对相关文献进行了回顾,进行了市场参与家数与市场效率的理论研究,将其应用于下一代网络的准入管制指导中,并提出了辅助下一代网络市场准入管制的措施。我们主张我国下一代网络中,核心网和部分基础设施接入网进行一致产权办法进行,解决由于网络外部性导致的市场竞争无效行为；在业务网新兴服务商的接入问题上采用分阶段抽租补偿管制办法,设立创业保险基金,以鼓励市场创新、保护运营商的合理收益。最后,文章就现阶段,我国通信市场面临的决策与体制问题进行了分析,并指出了文中的不足和继续研究的方向建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The development of the next generation network is not only an irreversible historical trend, but also the motivation of Chinese telecommunication industry. Governmental control policy is critical, to a great extent, to determine the course of our society. In the near twenty years, china’s telecommunication has made great process both in technology and economy. The china’s policy about "use IT to propel industrialization", in order to grow the country’s economic strength and ability to compete internationally and to make a leap-forward development, has a profound effect on china’s telecommunication industry supported by government in the past few years, the voice service is quite popular. The basic demand of voice service can be met satisfyingly. The internet services, growing rapidly in recent years, promote the development of web resources and data services, and make data and multimedia key development tasks in the next stage of development. In the long run, telecommunication network’s upgrade to the data service is an inexorable trend.The original principle for network design is mostly one service to one network. With the advent of digital technology, it is possible for all communication networks to employ one or zero serial based on internet protocol. We can develop kinds of services without changing the network infrastructure. Now existed networks will be integrated into one IP based network under evolving. The next generation network can be seen with base network and services lays to use. To meet ubiquitous services, there are many access ways such as Wi-Fi mesh,WiMAX, Femocell, VDSL2, HSPA, LTE to link into next generation core network. So the situation of monopoly of local loop line will be destroyed. Much more services to choose for users will bring more competition for the market. In 2008, reconstructed three new operators, China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Union, all have mobile and fixed line licenses and 3G licenses, which bring convergence of industry and network construction in large scale. It is obvious that next generation core network is with obviously natural monopoly feature. Before solving the regulation problem, I review the literature. Then we do some work about relations between number of players and the social welfare in theory. We apply it to the NGN market entry regulation. We also suggestion some measures for easily market entry under regulation. We suggestion identical property according to customers number to solve the exterior effect problom in core network and some infrastructure acess network, two stage ceiling access pay and fund for innovation risk for new service provider which encourage innovation. And it also compensates the operator’s investment. In the end, we analyze the situation for Chinese communication chance and mechanism, and then show some limitation of our work and further research suggestions.更多还原