【作者】 崔红建；

【导师】 马天山；

【作者基本信息】 长安大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 随着我国社会经济的发展,城市化与机动化水平都呈现快速增长的态势,加之人口基数庞大、自然系统供给能力相对不足的既有国情,城市交通的供需矛盾愈发尖锐,由此引发的一系列问题严重影响社会经济运行效率及居民生活质量的提高。由于居民基本出行需求的增长和自然系统供给能力的下降皆属主观调控难以奏效的范畴,而交通供给总量是之于交通流的相对值,因此改变居民出行方式结构就成为解决问题的有效方法。基于可持续发展理念及我国的实际国情,在获知城市主要交通方式技术经济属性的基础上,构建交通方式优劣性评价体系。运用层次分析法(AHP)计算各指标在综合评价体系中所占权重,并结合各项指标评价值得出交通方式的优先发展顺序,进而明确我国城市交通结构优化的目标。城市交通结构受生产力水平、交通需求特征等因素的影响,但从微观上看,其演化的动力来自于出行者基于个人效用最大化原则下对交通方式的选择行为,而利用非集计模型(disaggregate behavioral model)推导的结果说明交通方式带给出行者的期望效用是影响居民出行决策的核心因素,也是城市交通结构演化的根本动力。论文构建了交通方式竞争模型并指出,交通结构优化可从降低交通方式竞争强度及提高公共交通的竞争力入手。将上述研究加以综合,给出城市交通结构演化动力模型,从而为后续规划、政策、措施的制定提供总体思路,构建城市交通优化方法体系可从基于土地利用的城市交通结构优化与基于外部性的城市交通结构优化两方面入手。对土地利用与城市交通结构的关系进行深入研究发现,土地利用对某种交通结构的形成具有决定性影响；而交通结构也会反作用于土地利用,二者不是单纯地某一方决定另一方的静态关系,而是相互影响、彼此强化的动态发展过程。基于此,欲达到城市交通结构优化之目的,必须引入公共交通导向的土地利用模式(“TOD”模式),论文在阐述“TOD”基本理论及借鉴典型城市实施“TOD”先进经验的基础上,指出我国实施“TOD”模式应着手解决路网规划、交通管理体制、建设时序三方面问题。以外部性及产权的全新视角审视我国城市交通结构不合理的原因并提出相应的解决方案。外部性的产生从根本上说是由于产权界定不清引起的,而城市交通由于广泛涉猎共有产权资源或与之相关的经济活动,因此在市场机制作用下,资源配置或经济活动承载的收益或成本与理论值产生偏差,进而导致出行者基于个人效用最大的交通方式选择,却会造成社会整体福利的流失,外在表现为城市交通结构不合理。因此,消除城市交通外部性影响的过程亦即是交通结构优化的过程。论文指出,可建立全面的公共交通成本-收益评价体系以及利用产权的统一或分割消除外部效益溢出,以此解决公共交通投资建设力度不足、运营落后的问题；利用产权的限制解决出行者对资源的过度索取所造成的外部成本问题,具体又分为环境保护的产权限制和交通拥堵的产权限制,以此减少小汽车的使用范围,强行促成公交出行比例的上升；利用产权的分割将公共资源的部分权利引入市场交易的范畴,包括道路设施使用权、停车设施使用权、环境污染权、不可再生能源使用权等,以此增加小汽车使用者的实际经济成本,从而将其部分分流。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of our country’s economy, urbanlization and mechanization both have been rising quickly, adding the country’s situlation that large population and environment’s small supply capability, the contradiction between supply and demand of urban transportation becomes more and more serious,which leads to a series of problems constraining the efficiency of society’s operation and the quality of denizen’s life. As neither the increase of denizen’s transportation demand nor the decrease of environment’s supply capability is controlled by human, so changing the traffic structure becomes an effective method of solving problems.Based on the sustainable development idea and our country’s practical situation, on the basis of realizing urban mainly traffic mode’s attribute, The dissertation builds up the estimating system of traffic modes, makes us of the manner of AHP to calculate the proportion of target aims, and realizes the development gradation of kinds of traffic modes, at last shows the target of our country’s urban traffic structure’s optimization.Urban traffic structure is affected by productivity level, urban transportation demand and etc, but the motivity of development comes from the humans’ activity of choosing traffic modes based on the travellers hoping make their values maximum, and the result of disaggregate behavioral model’s derivation shows that the benefit traffic modes bring to travellers is the crucial factors affecting the travelling behavior, so it’s the essential motivity for traffic structure’s development. The dissertation builds up the model of traffic modes’ competition and shows that to optimize traffic structure can operate from decreasing the competition intensity of traffic modes and increase the competition predominance of public traffic. At last the dissertation gives the motivity model of traffic structure’s optimization, which can provide macro-frame.The dissertation makes deep research on the relationship between land utilization and urban traffic structure, and the result shows that land utilization has the crucial influence on traffic structure, and traffic structure has the counteractive to land utilization, the relation between two is not one decides another, but interactional and aggrandizement by one another. So, in order to achieve the target of traffic structure’s optimization, we have to carry out the model of Transit-Oriented Development (TOD). The dissertation introduces the basical theory and advanced experience, shows that our country carrying out TOD should solve three fields of problems that road nets programming, traffic management system and building scheduling.The dissertation makes research on the reason to our country traffic structure’s unbalance and solving project from the visual angle of externality and property right. As urban traffic deal with mutual property right resources and the correlative economical activity, so under the effect of market mechanism, the benefit and cost which resources collocating and economical activity bear are different from practical. The phenomena leads to the travelling behavior based on travellers’ value maximum, which will decrease the social macro-welfare, and the appearance is urban traffic structure’s unbalance.So, the process of eliminating the externality influnce is just the process of traffic structure’s optimization. The dissertation shows that, we can use property right’s unification or comminution to eliminate externality, which can solve the problems of lack of builiding financing and operation’s draggling; use the property right’s restrication to solve the problems of resources’ excessive utilization, and the restrication includes environment pollution’s right restrication and traffic congestion’s right restrication; use the property right’s comminution to make parts of public resources join in market, including the environment pollution right, road establishment utilization right and etc, throuh which we can increase the motor vehicle travellers’ cost, and lead them to choose other traffic modes.更多还原