【作者】 何远成；

【导师】 董千里；

【作者基本信息】 长安大学 ， 物流工程与管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 进入21世纪后,人类面临的环境和资源问题日益恶化。在这种背景下,物流业呈现出环境、社会和经济协调共生的发展趋势。以经济性物流为研究对象的传统物流理论已不适应当前的社会经济形势。水运在环境保护、资源节约和经济性方面有先天的优势,如何利用流域地区丰富的水运资源,构筑具有综合属性的物流发展模式,是当前通航流域地区加快工业化进程所面临的重大理论和现实课题。为此,本文在对大量文献研究基础上,针对当前物流研究中水运研究缺乏,过于重视经济性物流的实际情况,把具有环境、社会和经济综合属性的水运与物流结合起来进行研究,并尝试性地提出流域物流发展模式及其理论框架体系,以满足当前工业化和可持续发展对物流的需求。该理论围绕流域物流这一基本概念,以通航河流为研究主线,先后探讨了流域物流的要素、边界、特性、基本理论支柱、研究方法、发展类型、阶段、网络结构、流域物流与经济关系机制、理论应用等基本问题,并对一些重要问题进行了实证研究。本文主要有以下创新点：(1)理论上的创新。传统物流理论侧重微观物流的研究,区域物流虽重视宏观层次的物流研究,但其研究对象过于宽泛,范围多限于行政区域,目标过于注重经济性,忽视环境和社会问题,也没有形成科学的体系。因此在大量借鉴和吸收现有相关理论基础上,本文针对区域物流理论研究存在的问题和现实形势发展的需要,提出了具有环境、经济和社会综合属性的流域物流理论。该理论的提出,有助于从流域宏观层面深化人们对可持续发展物流模式的认识,推动相关研究的发展,并对物流实践起到理论指导和参考作用。(2)方法应用领域上的创新。在第一章,本文首先运用SPSS统计分析技术对我国流域物流发展的整体情况进行了主成分聚类分析,研究不仅表明影响流域物流发达程度的因素主要是地理区位和水运资源利用程度,而且显示了流域物流发达程度与经济发展水平的密切关系；传统的数理统计技术只能分析属性数据,而对关系数据分析则无能为力,而社会网络分析理论和方法,则具有这一特长。在第四章,本文在建立物流引力模型基础上,运用社会网络分析软件Ucinet对珠江流域21个港口城市形成的流域物流网络进行了网络中心度、中心势、中间性、凝聚子群和核心边缘等结构功能特性的实证研究,揭示了珠江流域不同港口城市间物流影响力差异,并得出整个流域物流结构分层的结论；流域物流与流域经济之间要素作用非常复杂,传统的定性和定量研究手段难以满足研究的需求,而系统动力学分析方法则能满足复杂系统动力机制研究的需要。在第五章,本文运用系统动力学原理及其分析软件Vensim PLE,以长江流域物流与经济系统为研究对象,建立仿真模型,并模拟运行；通过一致性检验证实该模型符合实际情况,这说明运用系统动力学分析方法建模比较成功。更多还原

【Abstract】 Into the 21st century, the environmental pollution and resources shortages facing the mankind are more and more serious. Under such circumstances, the symbiotic trend of the environmental, society and ecomony is appearing in logistics industry.But the current logistics theory taking the economic logistics as its research objective does not follow the situation completely. Water transport has advantages of environmental-protecting, resources-saving and ecomomy, and how to establish the new development mode of logistics of comprehensive attributes,with the help of rich resources of water transport in basin regions,is both a major practical task and a pressing theoretical issue.According to the current situation of shortages of water transport studies in economic logistics researches, this dissertation brings water transport of comprehensive attributes and logistics to study together and puts forward the development mode and theoretical framework for basin logistics so as to satisfy the need of the industrialization and sustainable development, based on a plenty of literature researches.The theory separately studies some basic theoretic problems such as elements,boundary,characteristics, pillars of theory,methodology, types, stages of development, network structure, dynamic mechanism between logistics and economy and application of basin logistics. Especially, empirical researches on basin logistics of Chinese provinces and municipalities, the logistics network of the Pearl River and the dynamic mechanism between the economy and logistics of Yangtze River are also made. There are innovation points of the dissertation in the below:Firstly, innovation in theory. The research objective of the currentl logistics theory belongs to micro level and although regional logistics keeps an eye on the macro level researches, its has many shortcomings such as no scientificly and widely accepted system, purely economic goal and more researches on not economic region but administration region, which are not fitful for the trend of today. So the dissertation puts forward basin logistics theory of comprehensive attributes to fill the blank of logistics theory.Secondly, innovation in method application.In the first chapter, the dissertation has a clustering analysis and principal component analysis on Chinese basin logistics with the software SPSS and the conclusions reveal that location and utilization degree of water resources are key factors of basin logistics being advanced or not,and that basin logistics and the degree of economic development has positive correlation; the usual mathematical statistics technologies do not process relationship data,but the attribute data, On the contrary, the society network analysis (SNA) can deal with relationship data. In the fourth chapter, the dissertation makes analysis of centrality, centralization, betweeness centrality, subgroup, core and periphery on the network of 21 port cities in the Pearl River basin with the help of the software Ucinet and shows the characteristics of the network structure. In the fifth chapter, the dissertation uses system dynamics (SD) to analyze the interactive mechanism between the logistics and economic with the help of the software Vensim PLE and the simulation data is in conformity with the real data, which testifies the model of simulation successful.更多还原