【作者】 罗小强；

【导师】 陈宽民；

【作者基本信息】 长安大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 城市交通及伴随的环境、能源等已成为当今社会普遍关注的问题之一。提高公共交通吸引力,优化城市居民出行结构、走可持续发展之路是解决问题的根本途径。城市轨道交通作为国内外众多大城市客运交通运输的主体或骨干,对其城市社会经济发展起到了重要促进作用。2008年底,全国已有10座城市的轨道交通建成并运营,有8座城市已立项并正在建设,另有20座城市正在申报或筹备。预计到2050年我国城市轨道交通总里程将超过4500km,可以看到我国大规模发展城市轨道交通的时代已经来临。城市轨道交通占用地面空间小、节能环保等优势,不但可以疏解城市交通拥挤,而且有利于改善人居环境质量、促成城市可持续发展；但由于其建设和运营投入巨大、可达性低等局限,客观上要求以审慎的原则规划和发展。线网布局规划是轨道交通线网规划中的核心内容之一,其布局方案质量将制约线网规划成果的功能适用性、运营合理性和工程可行性。在当前形势下,研究城市轨道交通线网布局规划理论和方法具有重要理论意义和实践价值。论文依据可持续发展的思想,运用城市轨道交通、城市与城市交通规划、系统分析及运筹学、图论和复杂网络等理论方法,在广泛总结的基础上,对城市轨道交通线网布局规划中的客流需求预测、单线布局形态、线网布局形态和布局优化方法进行了研究,并对当前线网布局规划中的线路长度、环线布设等热点问题进行了探索。论文通过分析城市轨道交通客流需求预测的问题和成因,提出了基于“情景分析”的客流需求预测方法和流程,可定性定量结合地建立并反馈目标预测环境,弥补超远期预测边界约束缺失,同时整合形成共同发展途径以保障客流预测目标实现。为提高预测基础数据质量,论文按照组团状城市核查线可围合成若干封闭区域的特点,依据极大熵原理,以核查区和路段总观测值与估算值差异最小化为目标,建立了基于核查区的OD矩阵校核模型及算法。并用2008年西安市居民出行调查数据进行了验算,结果表明该方法能减少工作量、提高数据校核精度。论文在总结国内外城市实际运营轨道交通线路功能、运营特征与线路布局形态关系的基础上,将轨道交通单线线路布局形态归纳为直线、环线和组合型三种结构类型,并分析了各种类型的特性和分类、功能特征和设置条件。以轨道交通线路运营社会总体效益最优化为目标,分别建立了直线和环线类线路长度优化模型,并用国内实际数据进行了验算。结果表明,在通常情况下正线的最优长度在14.5-37.0km,且与客流强度成反比。论文运用复杂网络理论方法,提出了轨道交通线网布局结构形态的四项复杂网络特征指标,并对典型的纯放射式、环形放射式和棋盘式线网的进行了试算和分析。同时,论文研究了“城市轨道交通线网整体布局优化模型”及相应的遗传算法。更多还原

【Abstract】 Urban transport and associated environmental, energy has become one of the social issues of common concern. Improve the attractiveness of public transport, optimizing the structure of urban residents travel, take the road of sustainable development is the fundamental way to solve the problem. Rail passenger traffic as the big cities home and abroad, the main or backbone transport, socio-economic development of their city played an important role in promoting. By the end of 2008, China had 10 cities, rail transit built and operated, with eight cities has been approved and is under construction and another 20 cities are being declared or preparation.2050 the total mileage of China’s urban rail transit more than 4500km. Can see large-scale development of China’s urban rail transit time has come.Occupied floor space of urban rail transportation, energy saving and environmental protection advantages, not only ease urban traffic congestion, and help to improve the quality of living environment, promote sustainable urban development; but because of its construction and operation into a huge, low accessibility limitations objectively requires the principle of prudent planning and development. Network Distribution planning is the rail transit network planning in the core content of program quality will limit its distribution network planning function of the outcome of the applicability of rational operations and engineering feasibility. In the current situation, studies the layout of urban rail transit network planning theory and methods have important theoretical and practical value.Paper based on the idea of sustainable development, the use of urban rail transport, urban and transportation planning, systems analysis and operations research, graph theory and complex network theory approach, a broad conclusion based on the layout of urban rail transit network planning The passenger demand forecasts, in-line layout, Network Distribution patterns and layout optimization method is studied, and the current network layout of the line length, layout and other hot spots ring was explored.Articles by analysis of urban rail transit passenger demand forecast and the causes of the problems is proposed based on "scenarios" of the passenger demand forecasting methods and processes can be combined qualitative and quantitative goals to establish and predict environmental feedback to make up for lack of ultra-long-term forecast boundary constraints, while integrating a common development objectives intended to protect the passenger flow forecasting to achieve. To improve the prediction based on data quality, paper-like according to tour around Ge Cheng Cheng Shi verification line can be characterized by a number of closed areas, based on maximum entropy principle, to verify the total area and the road between observations and estimates the minimum as the objective, the establishment of a verification-based District of OD matrix model and algorithm checking. Xi’an residents with the 2008 travel survey data were checking, the results show that the method can reduce workload, improve data accuracy check.Paper summarizing the actual operations at home and abroad urban rail transit line functions, operating characteristics and the relationship between circuit layout pattern based on the single rail line will be divided into linear layout pattern, ring and combination-type three structurally and analyzed the various types of features and classification, functional characteristics and setting conditions. Rail transit line operations to optimize the overall effectiveness of the community as the goal line were established and the Link class line length optimization model, and the domestic real data checking. The results show that under normal circumstances the optimal line length is 14.5-37.0km, and inversely with the intensity of passenger flow. The conclusions and experiences of value close to that of the method is feasible.Reference to complex network theory approach paper proposed rail transit network layout structure and morphology characteristics of the four indicators of complex networks, and typical of pure radial, radial, and checkerboard ring network lines had a spreadsheet and analyzed. Meanwhile, the paper studies to the "line of network optimization model for the overall arrangement and method."’and the corresponding calculation of the genetic algorithm.更多还原