【作者】 赵宝峰；

【导师】 李佩成；

【作者基本信息】 长安大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 水资源是人类赖以生存和社会经济发展不可缺少的物质基础。随着社会经济的不断发展,一方面水资源的开发利用水平逐步提高,水资源的需求量不断增加,供需矛盾日益突出;另一方面,由于人类对水资源的不合理开发利用,造成了生态环境的破坏。中国西北干旱区位于欧亚大陆腹地,气候干燥、降水稀少、蒸发强烈,水资源非常短缺,由于长时间对水资源的不合理开发利用,许多流域已经出现了严重的生态环境问题,制约着西部经济的发展以及再造山川秀美计划的顺利实施,同时影响着干旱区社会经济的发展和人民生活水平的提高。因此,有必要针对干旱区水资源进行系统的分析,掌握干旱区水资源的基本特征以及典型干旱区流域水资源与生态环境的关系,在此基础上制定科学合理的水资源开发利用模式,最终实现社会经济和生态环境的和谐发展。本论文在论述了干旱区的概念以及干旱区分布的基础上,对干旱区地下水和地表水水文特征进行了系统的分析,总结出干旱区水资源的形成、转化以及补给排泄的规律。并以我国干旱区典型内陆河流域之一的玛纳斯河流域为例,研究了玛纳斯河流域水资源特征、水资源利用现状以及水资源可持续利用问题。在考虑了生态需水量的基础上进行了供需平衡分析以及利用模糊物元法预测了水资源承载力的变化趋势,结合流域水资源特征以及开发利用现状,通过模糊综合评判法确定出了流域的合理开发利用模式,并总结出了干旱区的水资源合理开发模式。论文共分两篇9章。第一篇在总结了大量文献资料和前人对干旱区研究的基础上,阐述了干旱区的概念以及干旱区在世界上和我国的分布范围,总结出干旱区在降水、蒸发、河、湖、植被分布、生态环境等方面的基本特征。在系统分析了干旱区地表水和地下水在水的形成、补排条件、水文特征等基础上,探讨了干旱区地表水和地下水的转化关系,初步研究了人类活动对干旱区水资源和生态环境的影响。第二篇以我国典型的干旱区内陆河流域之一的玛纳斯河流域为例,系统分析了地表水、地下水和泉水的水文特征,在此基础上建立了流域平原区的水文地质概念模型和地下水流数值模型,利用地下水流数值模拟软件MODFLOW进行了数值分析,对流域平原区地下水的水量和水位进行了预测。计算出现状年流域河流系统生态需水量和绿洲生态需水量分别为4.9621×108m3和2.1124×108m3,得到了流域内的生态总需水量约为7.0745×108m3。在考虑了生态需水量的基础上,结合流域国民经济实际情况和“十一五”规划,对2000年、2010年和2020年流域内的生活需水量、农业需水量、工业需水量、第三产业需水量和生态需水量做出计算和预测,并且结合地表水资源(75%和50%的来水频率)和地下水资源,对流域的水资源供需平衡作出分析,得出现状年水资源供水量为19.5358×108m3和21.4458×108m3,需水量为21.4311×108m3,前者缺水量为1.8953×108m3,后者余水0.0147×108m3,2010年供水量为19.1409×108m3和21.0509×108m3,需水量为24.0762×108m3,缺水量分别为4.9353×108m3和3.0253×108m3,2020年供水量为18.754×108m3和20.664×108m3,需水量为26.4336×108m3,缺水量分别为7.6796×108m3和5.7696×108m3,随着工农业的发展,缺水程度日益严重。利用模糊物元法分析了流域2000年、2010年和2020年水资源承载力呈现不断下降的趋势。根据流域水资源利用情况,确定了七个水资源评价指标：地下水开发潜力、地表水开发潜力、地下水满足率、地表水满足率、地下水水质、地表水水质和地表水调蓄能力,在确定各评价指标的权重向量和模糊综合评判矩阵的基础上,建立了流域水资源开发模式的模糊综合评判模型,经过对流域水资源开发模式的模糊综合评判分析后,得出各灌区合理科学的开发模式：石河子灌区以开发地表水为主、地下水为辅；金安灌区和玛纳斯灌区适合地表水、地下水联合开发；莫索湾灌区和下野地灌区以开发地下水为主、地表水为辅。经过对实际情况的分析后,认为经过模糊综合评判得出各灌区的开发模式是合理且科学的,为流域水资源可持续利用提供了科学理论依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water resources are the indispensable material basis for human survival and its socioeconomic development. With the rapid development of economic society, on one hand, the imbalance between demand and supply are becoming critical due to increasing water demand. On the other hand, ecological environment has been damaged by human unreasonable water resources utilization. The Northwest arid of China is located in the hinterland of the Eurasian continent, with dry climate, scarce rainfall and strong evaporation; accordingly, water resources shortage in this area are serious very much. Because water resources are exploited irrationally for a long time, many serious ecological environmental issues have been occurred in some river basins, which limit the economic development of the Northwestern and the implementation of "Beautiful Mountains and Rivers Plan ", with negative impact on the improvement of people’s living standards in northwestern arid areas. Therefore, it is necessary to analyse water resources of arid regions systematically, involving mastering its basic features and the relationship between typical valley water resource and the surrounding ecological environment; on a basis of that, it is to make scientific and rational water resources development pattern. As a result, the sustainable utilization of water resources can be realized finally.The doctoral dissertation interpreted the concept and distribution of arid, analysed the hydrological characteristics of groundwater and surface water in arid, and then concluded the formation, transformation as well as recharge and discharge rules of arid water resources. In this dissertation, Manas river basin was chosen to be a research area, which is a typical continental river basin located in arid. The dissertation studied the water resources features and situation of Manas river basin and its sustainable utilization problems. Based on the consideration of ecological water demand, the balance between demand and supply and water resources bearing capability are studied, coupled with water resources features and current utilization situation, the rational development pattern for this basin can be put up with, so as to provide theoretical fundation and data supporting for water resources sustainable development.The dissertation contains 9 chapters. Relied on a large number of literatures and researches done by other scientists, the first chapter concluded the arid concept and its distribution scope in the world and China, and obtained the basic features of hydrology in arid, including precipitation, evaporation, vegetation cover, ecological environment, etc. Meanwhile, this chapter also analysed the formation, recharge and discharge conditions and hydrological features of surface water and ground water in arid, explored the transformation relationship between surface water and groundwater of arid areas, and then studied the impacts of human activities on water resources and its surrounding environment in arid.Taking Manas river basin as a research area, which is a typical continental river basin located in arid, the second chapter analysed its hydrological characteristics of groundwater and surface water. Based on that, hydrological conception model and groundwater flow numerical model were built up making use of MODFLOW software to predict thegroundwater quantity and level for river basin plain areas. After comprehensive computation, the amount of river system ecological water demand of and oasis water demand are 4.9621×108m3 and 2.1124×108m3 respectively, and the total ecological water requirement amount is7.0745×108m3.In combination with current situation of river basin people economic and "eleven five" planning, the paper computed all sorts of water requirements in research area for the year of 2000, including livelihood, agriculture, industry, service industry and ecological environment, and made corresponding water demands amount prediction for the year of 2010 and 2020. In addition, coupled with surface water source (water coming frequencies are 75% and 50% respectively.) and groundwater source, the analysis was done for the balance between supply and demand. The results were shown as followings. In actuality year, water supply amount of surface water and groundwater are 19.5358x108m3 and 21.4458x108m3 respectively; water demand amount is 21.4311×108m3; water shortage amount is 1.8953×108m3, water surplus amount is 0.0147x108m3. In 2010, water supply amount of surface water and groundwater are 19.1409x10xm3 and 21.0509x108m3; water demand amount is 24.0762×108m3; water shortage amount are 4.9353 X 108m3 and 3.0253 X 108m3 respectively. In 2020, water supply amount of surface water and groundwater are 18.754×108m3and 20.664 X 108m3 respectively; water demand amount is 26.4336×108m3; water shortage amount are 7.6796×108m3 and 5.7696 X 108m3 respectively. All in all, with the rapid development of industry and agriculture, water shortage is becoming serious day by day.According to the utilization situation of river basin water resources,7 index are determined to evaluate water resources, including groundwater exploitation potentiality, surface water development potentiality, groundwater supply rate, surface water supply rate, groundwater quality, surface quality as well as surface regulation and storage capacity. By means of specifying the weights of the 7 index and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation matrix, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was established to express river basin water resources development pattern. After the assessment of water resources development pattern, it can obtain rational and scientific developing pattern for irrigation districts in research area as following suggestions. Shihezi Irrigation District can use surface water as main water source with supplement of groundwater; Jin’an and Manas Irrigation Districts can make use of water resources in integration way of surface water and groundwater; Mosuowan and Xiaye Irrigation Districts can take groundwater as main water source with supplement of surface water. At last, compared with current situation, the paper indicates that6 the development pattern of above irrigation districts generated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is rational and scientific, providing powerful foundation for water resources sustainability utilization of river basin.更多还原