【作者】 赵学刚；

【导师】 魏朗；

【作者基本信息】 长安大学 ， 载运工具运用工程， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 本文将风险理论、预警理论与道路交通安全理论相结合,探索性研究了区域路网道路交通安全风险的危险源识别、实时监测技术、区域路网道路交通安全实时风险的综合评价技术,以及区域路网交通安全风险动态预警等关键技术。论文从技术层面提供了区域路网道路交通安全预防的“事前”信息,不仅可以有效提高管理工作的效率,同时也可以改善道路交通参与者参与道路交通安全风险预防的认识水平与参与程度,从而实现交通参与者与管理者联动的道路交通安全预防社会化管理。本研究不仅丰富了道路交通安全理论与风险理论,而且为道路交通安全的预防管理开辟了一个新的研究方向。论文研究的主要内容有：(1)研究了道路交通安全风险的概念体系、道路交通安全风险的生成机理,以及道路交通安全风险的危险源识别方法。主要应用风险的基本理论,结合道路交通安全系统的特性,系统研究了道路交通安全风险的定义、构成要件与本质特性；应用风险的基本理论,研究了道路交通安全风险的生成机理与背景层次；应用风险识别技术研究了道路交通安全风险危险源的分类识别。(2)研究了道路交通安全风险的监测方法,并构建道路交通安全风险的监测指标体系。应用道路交通安全风险指数评价法,对道路交通安全风险的子危险源进行风险评价及风险分析；针对道路交通安全风险各类型危险源的重点子危险源,分别分析其特性并应用道路危险系数法、道路交通安全指标分级赋值法等方法,研究设计了各自对应的监测指标,并构建了相应的道路交通安全风险监测指标体系。(3)研究了道路交通安全风险实时综合评价指标体系、道路交通安全风险实时综合评价方法。应用风险评价的基本原理,分析道路交通安全风险评价的基本模型,并定义了道路交通安全风险实时风险值；在道路交通安全风险监测指标体系的基础上,构建道路交通安全风险的实时综合评价指标体系。针对这一综合评价指标体系,研究了道路交通安全风险实时风险的层次分析-模糊综合评价法及其模型。(4)研究了道路交通安全风险预警的理论技术系统体系、区域路网交通安全风险动态预警警度的确定方法,并建立预警模型。运用系统分析的方法,研究了道路交通安全风险预警的理论技术系统体系；在此基础上,进一步研究了预警准则和预警警度的确定方法——区域路网交通安全风险动态预警综合指数预警指标法。此外,还构建了区域路网交通安全风险动态预警的技术模型、系统结构模型以及管理运作模型和管理体系模型。综上所述,本研究的创新点主要体现在以下几个方面：(1)应用风险的基础理论与风险识别技术,对道路交通系统的道路交通安全风险的定义、危险源分类识别方法进行系统研究,得到了道路交通安全风险完整的概念体系,及道路交通安全风险的危险源三级结构。这一成果,为道路交通安全与风险理论的结合进行了尝试,为道路交通安全风险的进一步深入研究奠定了理论基础。(2)应用道路交通安全风险指数评价法、道路危险系数法、道路交通安全指标分级赋值法等多种新方法,对道路交通安全风险进一步研究,得到了道路交通安全风险的重点子危险源结构,并建立了道路交通安全风险三级监测指标体系。这一成果,为全面、系统、深入研究道路交通安全风险,提供了思路、方法及应用成果的借鉴。(3)应用风险评价的基本原理、道路交通安全风险评价的基本模型,研究建立了道路交通安全风险的实时综合评价指标体系,并得到了相应的综合评价方法,即道路交通安全实时风险层次分析-模糊综合评价方法及模型。这一成果,成功实现了道路交通安全风险的实时监测与定量评价的融合,为道路交通安全风险的预警提供了科学的理论基础与依据。(4)应用系统理论、风险理论、预警理论的基础方法和技术理论,研究得到了区域路网交通安全风险动态预警综合指数预警指标法,建立了预警技术模型、系统结构模型、管理运作模型和管理体系模型。这为道路交通安全风险的预警实现了关键技术的突破；也为道路交通安全技术、风险技术与预警技术的结合探索了研究方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 This article connects the theory of risk, early warning with road traffic safety, researches dangerous source identify and prompt monitoring technology of regional road network traffic safety risk, and instant risk synthetic assessment technology and dynamic early-warning key technology of regional road network traffic safety, in order to provide a scientific risk early-warning management systems of road traffic safety. The paper supplies the prevention of road traffic safety "prior" information of the regional road network traffic safety on the foundation of technical level, which can effectively improve the management efficiency, but also can improve the risk prevention level of awareness and extent of participation of road traffic safety that road traffic participants involved in, and further to achieve the social management of Traffic participants and managers of road safety to connect with each other. This study not only enriches the theory of road traffic safety and risk, but also opens up a new research direction for the prevention of road traffic safety. The main contents of this paper are:(1) It studies the concept system of the risk of road traffic safety, the produce mechanism of the risk of road traffic safety and identification method of dangerous source of road traffic safety risk. The basic theory of the risk of major applications combined with the characteristics of road traffic safety system, systematically in search of the definition, frame elements and essential features of the risk of road traffic safety; the basic theory of application risk studies the produce mechanism and background levels of the risk of road traffic safety; the applicant risk identification techniques explores the classified recognition of dangerous source of the road traffic safety risk.(2) It studies monitoring methods and monitoring index system of the road traffic safety risk. It also applies index evaluation method of the road traffic safety risk to risk assessment and risk analysis of sub-hazard source of the road safety risk; According to the different features of various types of sub-hazard sources of the road traffic safety risk, this paper researches and designs monitoring index of various sub-hazard sources with respectively analysis and application of road hazard index method and index grade evaluation method of the road traffic safety, so as to build a risk monitoring index system of the road traffic safety. (3) It studies the prompt comprehensive evaluation index system and method of the road safety risks. It applies the basic principles of risk assessment analysis the basic model of road traffic safety risk evaluation, and defines the instant real value of road traffic safety risk; and builds a prompt synthetic assessment index system of road traffic safety risk on the basis of monitoring index system of road traffic safety risk. In addition, it states the prompt risk stages analysis of road traffic safety risk-----fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and model.(4) It discusses risk early-warning technical theory system of the road traffic safety and accurate method and early-warning model of risk dynamic early-warning extent. It uses analytic means explore the risk early-warning theory and technology system of road traffic safety; and further studies the early-warning principles and early-warning degree’s measures of risk dynamic early warning, which means a type of comprehensive early-warning index method of regional road network traffic safety risk. Besides, this article also researches the technical model of risk dynamic early-warning of road traffic safety and the core technologies of system construction model and management operation model and management system model and so on.Above mentioned, the innovative point of this study is mainly reflected in the following aspects:(1)The text systematically road traffic safety risk definition and dangerous sources classification identify method of road traffic system with the basic theory and risk identify technology so as to build complete concept system of road traffic safety risk and the third-structure of dangerous sources. The results try to connect road traffic safety with risk theory, and further establish the theory fundament for in-depth study of road traffic safety risk.(2) It applies the index evaluation method of road traffic safety risk and hazards index method and index grade evaluation method to the research of the third-structure of dangerous sources, and further build essential sub-hazard sources structure and the third-level monitoring index system of road traffic safety risk. The results provide the idea, method and reference for the complete and systematic research of road traffic safety risk.(3) The article applies the basic theory of risk evaluation and basic model of road traffic safety risk to the instant comprehensive evaluation index system and resolution of road traffic safety risk, which also calls the prompt risk stages analysis of road traffic safety risk-----fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and model. The results accomplish the merge of import monitor and quantitative evaluation of the fuzzy comprehensive concept, and provide scientific basis for early-warning risk of road traffic safety risk.(4) It applies the basic method and technical theory of system theory, risk theory and early-warning theory to the research about accurate method of road traffic safety risk and early-warning model, system structure model, management operation model and management system model. The results carry out the breakthrough of key technology of road traffic safety risk, at the same time; it also offers exploring method for combining risk technology with early-warning technology.更多还原