【作者】 吴柏清；

【导师】 何政伟；

【作者基本信息】 成都理工大学 ， 地球探测与信息技术， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 回顾评价是水电工程环境影响评价的重要内容,是工程环境管理措施的有益补充,有助于全面、准确地衡量工程的环境影响,为进一步加强工程环境管理提供科学依据,同时为其它工程的环保设计和环境影响评价提供借鉴,具有重要意义。通过回顾评价,可以客观、公正地评价水电开发工程带来的环境效益和不利影响。本文以雅砻江二滩水电站为研究原型,以“3S”技术为支撑,以动态对比研究为指导思想,进行水电开发环境影响回顾评价,主要进行了以下研究工作:(1)在2006-2008年的3年研究时间内,选择典型时段进行二滩水电站库区实地调查与评价,获取水电站建成运行后的第一手资料。(2)采用线性倾向估计模型分析工程投入运行前10年间(1988～1998年)和运行后10年间(1999～2008年)较长序列的降水量、相对湿度和气温的年变化、月变化规律,采用Mann-Kendall模型进行水库蓄水前后降水量、相对湿度和气温的突变检测,进而分析工程对局地气候的影响。(3)利用1988年、1999年、2003年和2006年4个时段的Landsat TM/ETM+遥感影像,在GIS和FRAGSTAT景观分析软件的支持下,以景观生态学的理论和方法为指导,对土地利用景观格局及其动态变化进行定量分析。(4)基于遥感和GIS,采用RUSLE模型(Revised Universal SoilLoss Equation,修正的水土流失方程),分析水电站运行前后的水土流失动态变化。(5)在对水电开发环境影响单项评价的基础上,选取水土流失强度、植被指数、土壤亮度指数、湿度指数和热度指数作为评价指标,利用层次分析法确定各个评价指标的权重,在GIS的支持下,基于图形叠置法,综合评价工程建成前后环境质量的变化。(6)在研究综合分析与评价的基础上,根据二滩水电开发工程表现出来的对环境的影响,提出针对性的解决对策。研究主要取得了以下重要成果:(1)初步建立了一套基于“3S”技术的水电开发环境影响回顾评价技术方法体系。利用GPS作为野外考查的辅助工具,可以方便获取到地理坐标信息;利用遥感影像可以客观地获取到水电工程建成前后的地表信息,在此基础上提取土地利用信息、植被覆盖信息、土壤亮度指数、湿度指数、热度指数等,在GIS技术的支持下,进行水电开发环境影响的单体评价和综合评价。由于“3S”技术在信息获取、处理与分析方面所具有的客观性,使评价结论更加符合实际。(2)二滩水电站作为中国20世纪末建成装机容量最大的水电站,目前安全运行已逾十余载,工程地处干热河谷地带,生态环境十分脆弱。通过单体影响评价和综合影响评价认为,工程建成运行后,二滩水电站库区及库周范围内的环境质量是总体好转,但局部有恶化现象。研究第一次长尺度、全面、系统地评价了二滩水电开发工程对环境产生的影响,可为目前的水电开发提供决策支持依据,为其它水电工程环境影响提供类比案例。(3)将图形叠置法在GIS环境中得到了拓展,丰富了环境影响的评价方法。利用GIS技术在空间数据获取、存储、管理、处理与分析的巨大优势,获取各个单体评价因子,并利用层次分析法获取各因子权重,将其与图形叠置法有机融合使用,使得评价实施更为简洁和快捷,并且易于实现评价结果的定量化与空间化。更多还原

【Abstract】 Retrospective evaluation is an important part of environmental impact evaluation onhydroelectric project，and is a useful complement to project environmental managementmeasures，which can help to measure the environmental impact of projectcomprehensively and accurately，and can provide further strengthening environmentalmanagement project with scientific basis and offer reference for environmental design andenvironmental impact retrospective evaluation of other project simultaneously．Throughretrospective evaluation，the environmental benefits and adverse effects of hydropowerdevelopment project can be assessed objectively and fairly．In this paper，the environmental impact of Ertan Hydropower Station on the Yalong isevaluated retrospectively and dynamically based on“3S”technology．Main researchworks are the following：（1）In the study period from 2006 to 2008，the author has surveyed the ErtanHydropower Station reservoir in typical periods，and obtained the valuable first-hand dataand information．（2）Ten-year regularity of rainfall，relative humidity，and air temperature，including 1988-1997 and 1999-2008 respectively，was analyzed by the linear tendencyestimate model，sudden change examination of which was done by Mann-Kendall model，and further，the impact of Ertan hydropower project on local climate was analyzed．（3）Under the guidance of landscape ecology theories and methods，four-time landuse landscape pattern and the dynamic changes were analyzed quantitatively by GIS andFRAGSTAT software using four-time Landsat TM/ETM+ images，which are 1988，1999，2003 and 2006 respectively．（4）The dynamic changes of soil erosion before and after the hydropower station runwere analyzed by RUSLE（Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation）model based on RSand GIS technologies．（5）On the basis of individual evaluation on hydropower development environmentalimpact，soil erosion intensity，vegetation index，soil brightness index，humidity index and heat index were selected as evaluation indexes，the weight of which was determinedby AHP（Analytic Hierarchy Process），and the environmental quality changes wereevaluated based on graphic overlay method by the support of GIS．（6）Based on comprehensive analysis and evaluation，according to the impactson environment from Ertan hydropower development project，some targeted solutionswere proposed．Main important results are the following：（1）The technical methodology system of hydropower development environmentimpact retrospective evaluation was founded based on“3S”technologies．Thegeographical coordinate information can be easily obtained by GPS，as the auxiliary toolof field test．Based on earth surface information，which can be got objectively from RSimages，land use information，vegetation cover，soil brightness index，humidity indexand hot index，et al，were extracted，and used to evaluate individually orcomprehensively the hydropower development environment impact．Because of theobjectivity“3S”technologies in information acquisition，processing and analysis，evaluation results were more practical．（2）Ertan Hydropower Station,which has the largest installed capacity of thosecompleted in the late twentieth century in China，has operated safely more than ten yearsby now．The project，which locates in the dry-hot valley areas，it’s ecologicalenvironment was fragile，which was representative．Through the single andcomprehensive evaluation，it was believed that，environmental quality of ErtanHydropower Station reservoir and its surrounding was improving as a whole，but wasdeteriorated locally．This study has evaluated the Ertan hydropower developmentenvironmental impact more fairly，objectively，and comprehensively at first，providedcurrent hydropower development with decision-making support and other hydropowerproject environmental impact with an analogy example．（3）The graphic overlay method in GIS environment has been expanded andenriched the environmental impact evaluation methods．As the huge advantages of GIStechnology in spatial data acquisition，storage，management，processing and analysis，its organic integration with graphic overlay method makes the evaluation more conciseand faster，and have realized quantification and specialization of evaluation results．更多还原