【作者】 邵荃；

【导师】 袁宏永；

【作者基本信息】 清华大学 ， 核科学与技术， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 突发事件的应急决策过程往往是复杂的、多层次性的。突发事件的科学决策往往需要多个模型进行组合,生成针对该事件应急决策的模型链。突发事件模型链的构建是应急平台模型库实现智能决策的关键工作。突发事件模型链是突发事件应急决策模型按照一定的原则进行选择和组合在一起,通过完成各自分配的阶段任务来共同实现那些单个模型难以独自完成的突发事件应急决策,所以实现不同应急环境中突发事件应急决策的阶段任务分解以及针对不同阶段任务的模型选择是模型链构建过程中的主要困难所在。其中模型的信用值是模型参与选择获取任务的重要指标。针对这些问题,本文提出了基于动态网络组合方法的突发事件模型链构建方法,其中建立了突发事件模型的层次网络表示方法,给出了模型信用值的评价方法和针对不同突发事件场景的任务分解、模型选择和组合方法。动态网络组合方法是一种全局任务分解而阶段任务进行筛选的模型组合方法。动态网络组合方法保留了静态网络组合方法中模型的连接特性,又克服了静态网络组合方法无法根据事件信息和决策要求动态调整模型连接的缺点;吸收了动态组合方法能够根据信用值动态选择满意模型进行模型组合,又摒弃了其复杂的针对全局任务的最优模型选择和组合算法,提高了模型链生成速度。突发事件模型的层次网络表示方法是实现模型链构建的基础,其中建立的框架模型和筛选模型,以及属性模型分别给模型链构建提供了任务分解的框架,模型选择目标和相应的模型领域知识。模型的信用值评价方法实现了根据模型在不同系统和地区的应用情况科学合理的评估模型在不同应急环境中的表现,避免了模型信用值由专家设定的恒定值带来的不准确性,成为了模型重要的领域知识部分和模型链构建过程中模型选择的重要依据。基于模型链构建方法,本文建立了一个小型的危化品泄漏、火灾及爆炸事件应急决策模型库,并通过了案例验证,比较了不同模型链构建方法的性能。更多还原

【Abstract】 Nowadays, with the development of society and the modernization process, the scale-enlarging and centralization of human’s settlements, activities and their assets, the social mobility and complexity has unprecedentedly increased and has thus multiplied the incident break-outs world widely. In order to actively and effectively respond to these accidents, the Emergency Response Platform has been greatly developed. This platform is based on incident model to realize incidents’scientific forecast and warning, reasonable dispatch of resources, intelligent auxiliary policy-making. Recently more and more attention has been paid to the research and development of the incident response model, the types and quantity of which have been increased. Usually more than one models have to be integrated to form an incident-specific model chain due to the complication and multi layer of the policy making process in responding to an incident. The way the model chain is established is the key to the intelligent policy-making of the emergency response platform model base.Emergency model chain is formed through the selection and combination of the emergency response policy making models according to some principles to complete the respectively allocated phase tasks which cannot be done all by one model alone. To address the task decomposition of the incident with different surroundings and to match each task with the right model will be the bottleneck in establishing the model chain. The model credibility value is the important indicator for the models’participating, selecting and taking tasks.In respect to these problems, this paper proposes a method incident model chain is established, the dynamic network combination method based on model credibility value, including the incident model’s layer network indication method, the method of assessing the model credibility value and task decomposition and selection method in light of different incident surroundings.Dynamic network combination is a model combination method to decompose the whole task and select the model for each phase task. Dynamic network combination method has kept the connection trait in static network combination and at the same time overcome its flaw of being unable to dynamically adjust model connection according to the incident information and the policy requirement; this method has taken the dynamic combination’s advantage of selecting the optimal models for the model combination, while it has abandoned the complicated algorithm of selecting and combining models in accordance with the whole task.The hierarchy network model representation method is the base to realize the model chain establishment. The frame model, selection model, and attribute model will respectively provide for the model chain establishment with the task decomposition frame, target of model selection and the relative model knowledge.The assessment method of the model credibility value can make scientific and reasonable evaluation on the model performance in different emergency response environment based on the application in different systems and areas, and also avoids the inaccuracy of the constant value set by experts, becoming the significant knowledge in the model field and the basis of model selection in building a model chain.Based on the method of model chain establishment, this paper setups a small hazardous chemical material leak, fire and explosion incident response policy-making model base, which has been verified through cases.更多还原