【作者】 郑航；

【导师】 胡四一； 王忠静；

【作者基本信息】 清华大学 ， 水利工程， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 随着经济社会发展,水资源短缺在全球已开始显现,且在我国尤为明显,寻找可持续的水资源管理方式,是我国当前水资源管理改革的重点。国内外实践经验表明,水权制度是市场经济下实现水资源优化配置和合理利用的有效途径。初始水权分配及其调度实现是水权制度建立及运行的基础,通过初始水权分配明晰水权的数量边界,将多年平均水资源量分配至区域及用户;通过水权调度实现进行水权的实时管理,以调度手段落实初始水权分配方案。本文基于近年来中国水权制度建设实践经验的调研,实证分析了我国水权按制度建设的特点及规律,提出了流域初始水权分配的要素和框架,分析、阐述了水权调度管理及其实施风险的问题和概念,并在甘肃省石羊河流域进行应用研究,最后进行了中国干旱半干旱区流域的水权制度设计。在初始水权分配技术方面,辨析提出了初始水权分配要素及其路径选择的地区适宜性,建立了流域初始水权分配的分析框架,给出了初始水量分配基本原则的数学表达和分级协调模式,完善了初始水量分配的多准则模型;在水权的实施管理方面,提出了水权调度实现的概念和框架,建立了基于水权的水量实时分配优化调度模型,分析了“修正丰增枯减”以及传统的“丰增枯减”两种实时水权管理调度规则的差异性;在水权管理风险方面,识别了水权调度实现中的风险,引入风险管理的风险度概念,提出了水权实时管理风险度的概念和计算方法,并分析比较了不同实时水量分配规则下水权调度实现的风险;初始水量分配及调度实现和风险分析模型在甘肃省石羊河流域的应用表明:“修正丰增枯减”和“丰增枯减”规则,其水权实施的长期风险相同但阶段风险承受主体不同,前者为生态系统而后者为社会经济系统。水权制度建设是我国现阶段水资源管理制度改革的核心内容,是实施最严格的水资源管理的基础。本文在初始水权分配、水权调度实现及其风险管理的研究成果,将丰富中国水权制度建设的探讨,也还有进一步拓展研究的空间,有待在更多流域的检验。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the social-economic development, the water shortage has appeared globally. It is important to find a sustainable water management method in China. The water rights system based on the water rights allocation and its operation has been proved to be an effective way for water resources management and rational utilization. Besides the long-term water rights allocation referring to the annual average water resources, the real-time operation is also indispensable in the water rights system.From the experience of the recent water rights reform in China, this study has analysized the characteristics and the elements of the water rights constitution in China, modeled the real-time water rights operation and its risk, and designed a water rights system for the semiarid or arid valley in China, with applying all the models in the Shiyang River Basin.On the long-term water rights allocation, analysized the suitability of the current water rights allocation cases in China, put forward an analysis framework for the water rights allocation, and improved a long-term water rights allocation model, with the mathematicization of the allocation principles.Base on the concept of real-time water rights operation, set up a framework for the real-time water rights management, involving the revised“more water more rights, less water less rights”and the traditional“more water more rights, less water less rights”rules; and established a real-time water allocation and operation model.The study also put forward a method to evaluate the risk in the water rights operation, and analysized the risk under the two operation rules.Applying the models in the Shiyang River Basin, Gansu province, China, under the two real-time operation rules, the result shows that, the operation risk is larger under the traditional rule of“more water more rights, less water less rights”, and the risk is reduced by delivering the ecology water flexibly under the revised rule. The study will be improved by applying the models in a wet valley in the future.更多还原