【作者】 马春和；

【导师】 余建星；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 结构工程， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 在城市规划建设中考虑地质灾害的影响非常重要,对建设用地地质灾害危险性进行评估,可以对城市的规划建设提供科学的参考依据,避免或减少地质灾害的发生可能性。本文介绍了目前国内外对地质灾害危险性的研究分析及评估技术的现状,对城镇土地利用防灾适宜性评价,是一个综合评价问题,从数学理论角度讲,可采用的方法有:层次分析法、模糊综合评判法、灰色聚类评判法等。本文重点介绍了层次分析法的原理,提出了城镇土地利用防灾适宜性评价的标准分级体系,从规划用地的适宜性类型、灾害影响适宜性描述、城市规划建设适宜性要求、灾害影响的适宜性限制四个方面进行了全面系统的论述,通过研究层次分析法保序条件,证明了加权乘积法的严格保序性,并对限定性因素影响评价进行了改进,提出了限定性评价模型,并在此基础上,提出了防灾适宜性评价技术路线。对城市缺乏勘察资料的规划发展区域的场地类别提出了分区的方法,采用贝叶斯理论估计场地类别,并根据其他地震地质、工程地质和场地环境形成场地类别分区,并以某城市的抗震防灾规划工作为例进行了说明,对于城市土地利用中强震地面断裂的评估也进行了深入探讨,在分析总结我国强震地面断裂对城市工程建设影响的基础上,根据有关地面断裂震害资料,从城镇规划和工程使用的要求出发,提出了强震地面断裂的概率评价模型及相应技术参数,给出了三级危险区划分和两阶段评价方法以及强震地面断裂场地适宜性分级标准,并以实例阐述了这一方法的应用。地理信息系统(GIS)作为一种多因素综合定量分析法,在城市建设用地地质灾害危险性分析中具有很大的优越性。在城市防灾规划管理中引进GIS技术,可以实现城市防灾规划的动态管理,在空间性、动态性、定量性和综合性等方面,利用GIS技术特点,迅速建立和更新数据库,通过定量分析数学模型,与属性信息结合得到更为精确的预测效果,本文对GIS技术在规划用地防灾评价方面的应用提出了一些见解,并以滨海某城市的地质勘察资料为例,进行了实用,得到的结果具有一定的参考价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 It is very important to take into account the impact of geological disasters in the urban planning and construction, it can provide scientific reference for planning and construction of the city and avoid or reduce the possibility of the occurrence of geological disasters if the risks about geological disasters of building land have been assessed. In this paper, the analysis and present status about assessment techniques of hazards about geological disasters that both at home and abroad have been introduced, it is a comprehensive evaluation when suitability assessment of hazard resistant is used to urban land. From the perspective of mathematical theory, the best approach as follow: analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and grey cluster evaluation method. In this paper, the principle of analytic hierarchy process is mainly introduced, the standard grading system of suitability assessment of hazard resistant to be used to urban land is also given, from the suitable type of planning land, the appropriate description of disasters impact, the feasible requirements of urban planning and construction, the appropriate restrictions of disasters impact, a comprehensive and systematic exposition is given that based on these four aspects. The strict isotonicity of weighted-product method is proved through the research of AHP isotonic conditions, and the limiting factors of evaluation are improved, the limited evaluation model is proposed, and on this basis the technical line of suitability assessment of hazard resistant in also proposed.For some planning development area without sufficient exploration data, a method to forming site sort subarea is presented in this paper, and this method is based on the earthquake geology, engineering geology and site environment and using bayesian theory to estimate the site sorts. A seismic resistance planning for a city is taken as an example to describe the method. In this paper, the estimation for ground rupture induced by earthquake in the city exploration land is also discussed. Based on the summary of the influence of seismic ground rupture on the city construction and seismic rupture disaster, form the requirement of urban Planning and project use, probabilistic estimation model and corresponding technical parameters for ground rapture induced by strong earthquake is presented.As a multiple-index comprehensive quantitative assessment method, Geographic Information System (GIS) has a large advantage in hazard estimation of geological disasters in urban construction. Introducing the GIS technology into the urban hazard resistance planning management, a dynamic management of urban hazard resistance planning can be realized. Using the GIS technology, it is can be reached that a more precise prediction effect can be gained by connecting the quantitative analysis mathematical model and attribute information. In this paper, some suggestions are put forward in the application of GIS into land using hazard resistance estimation, and taken a geological exploration data as a example, a analysis is made, which has some reference value.更多还原