20世纪90年代以来欧洲经济增长研究

【作者】 张明哲；

【导师】 王鹤；

【作者基本信息】 中国社会科学院研究生院 ， 世界经济学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 面临人口老龄化、信息技术革命、经济全球化、环境变化等诸多挑战,20世纪90年代以来欧洲经济增长缓慢。针对欧洲经济增长缓慢的原因,国外学术界进行了大量的研究,基本形成两种不同的观点:一种观点认为欧洲经济增长缓慢的原因是创新不足,经济结构调整迟缓;另一种观点认为由于改革的负效应短期内显现,时滞和测度因素是欧洲经济增长缓慢的重要原因。国内对欧洲经济增长的研究不多,已有的研究大多以定性分析和短期经济增长为主。据此,本论文尝试在国内外研究的基础上,对90年代以来欧洲经济增长进行系统深入的分析,无论对欧洲经济的研究,还是对中国发展的借鉴,都具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。针对90年代以来欧洲经济增长,论文从“是什么”、“为什么”、“怎么办”的思路进行研究。“是什么”是对欧洲经济增长本身进行深入的剖析和论述,分别运用时间比较、国际比较、部门比较等三种方法进行阐述和分析。“为什么”是指对欧洲经济增长原因进行分析,论文分别从欧洲模式对经济增长的影响、各要素投入对经济增长的贡献、技术进步的决定因素等三个角度进行分析,其中运用的方法包括增长核算法、Mamquist生产率指数、面板数据模型等。“怎么办”是指如何提高欧洲的经济增长率,论文从对里斯本战略评述的角度分析旨在提高经济增长率的结构改革,运用的方法包括H-P滤波分析法等。基于以上的研究思路和分析方法,论文研究的主要结论如下:第一,无论与90年代之前相比,还是与同期美国相比,90年代以来欧洲经济增长不断减缓,主要原因是电子制造业、金融业、物流业等部门的增长相对较低。第二,欧洲模式的重要特征是经济宪法规定的宏观经济稳定和以社会公平为基础的经济社会凝聚,欧洲宏观经济稳定制约短期欧洲经济增长,有利于长期经济增长,经济社会凝聚与长期经济增长相互促进。第三,90年代以来欧洲劳动力市场改革提高了就业率,劳动投入对经济增长的贡献提高,但欧洲信息通信技术资本贡献和全要素生产率增长率低于美国,是欧洲经济增长缓慢的主要原因。从部门层次看,欧洲电子制造业以及金融业、物流业等现代服务业全要素生产率增长率低于美国。第四,技术创新是欧洲技术进步的主要决定因素,技术模仿影响不大,欧洲已经接近技术前沿面。决定技术进步的因素包括研究开发、人力资本等创新资源的投入以及有利于创新的制度和政策。欧洲技术进步缓慢的决定因素包括欧洲研究开发活动相对较少、人力资本投资和存量较低、产品市场规制较多、劳动力市场灵活性不足、金融市场规制差异较大等。第五,里斯本战略实施以来,由于劳动力市场改革效应显现,就业率提高,促进欧洲潜在经济增长率的增加,但由于技术进步缓慢的状况并没有得到根本改善,劳动生产率增长继续恶化。金融危机对欧洲潜在经济增长造成不利影响,欧洲经济复苏计划将短期经济刺激和长期结构调整结合起来,有利于提高欧洲长期竞争力。欧洲2020战略继续把创新作为欧洲未来发展的重点,随着结构改革的进行和效应的逐步显现,欧洲向创新型经济转变必将完成,欧洲经济增长的前景并不暗淡。更多还原

【Abstract】 In face of aging society, information revolution, economic globalization, and other challenges, European Union’s (EU) economic growth has being disappointing since 1990s. The source of EU’s economic growth has provoked an ongoing debate among foreign scholars, whose views can be classified into two kinds: the first one suggests that EU’s economy might be unable to achieve a shift from traditional industrial structure to innovation-based economy structure; the second one is that part of the explanations for EU’s poor economy performance could be measurement problems and adjustment lags, because negative effects of EU’s reform are visible in short term. The existing studies about EU’s economic growth by domestic scholars are not much, and most studies analysis short term growth from demand side. This dissertation is aimed to make a study on EU’s economy growth from a systematic and deepening perspective based on previous researches. Whether aiming for understanding the EU’s economy or serving the reform of Chinese economy, this research has significant practical and theoretical meaning.In this dissertation, the author tries to study from three aspects. The first one is to study the stylized facts of EU’s economy growth since 1990s. The second one is to analysis the root of EU economy growth from three ways: the effect of European model on economic growth; the contributions of factors input on EU’s economic growth; the determinants of EU’s total factor productivity growth (TFP), which is also called as technical progress. The third one is to reviews structural reforms and analysis the effect of structural reforms on EU’s economic growth since the fulfilling of Lisbon strategy. The methods in this research include Comparison analysis, Shift-Share analysis, Growth Accounting analysis, Malmquist index, Panel data analysis and so on.Based on the above analysis methods, the conclusions are as following: (1) Firstly, EU’s GDP or GDP per capita annual growth rate is not only lower than ever, but also than US since 1990s. Using the Shift-share analysis method to study the economic growth, EU-US economic growth gap is more from industry growth contribution, which mainly include electrical and optical equipment, financial internidiate, and distribution and so on. (2) Secondly, macroeconomic stability, economic and social cohesion are characteristics of European model, which are the preconditions of EU’s economic growth. EU price stability-reflected in low rates of inflation- is perhaps harmful to short-term economic growth, but facilitate achieving higher economic growth over long term. Fiscal discipline is detrimental to short term growth, but conductive to long term growth. Economic and social cohesion is to reduce inequality of personal incomes or regional development, through various redistribution policies. From empirical analysis, EU’s cohesion is beneficial to increase economic growth since 1990s. (3) Thirdly, from factor decomposition aspect, it is ICT capital contribution and TFP growth which contribute mostly to EU’s poor economic growth performance since 1990s. From the industry level, EU’s electrical and optical equipment, financial intermediation, and distribution and other service sectors TFP growth are relatively lower comparing to US. (4) Fourthly, EU’s technical progress is more relying on innovation but not imitation since 1990s. The innovation rate depends on the resource devoted to the innovate effort, such as R&D and human capital. In addition, level of regulation is potentially critical driving force for innovation. Regression results indicate that the determinants of technical progress are including R&D, human capital, product market regulation, labor market regulation, and financial market regulation and so on. The main resource of EU’s slow technical progress since 1990s are ?less R&D activity, lower human capital level, more regulation of product market, inflexible labor market, and bigger disparity of financial market regulation. (5) Fifthly, Lisbon Strategy was adopted by the European Council in the spring of 2000, which aims to increase EU’s productivity and economic growth through a list of reforms. Since the fulfilling of Lisbon strategy reforms, employment rate has been increasing, which help to increase the contribution of labor input on EU’s potential economic growth. But as a result of not sufficient implement of structural reforms, the slow technical progress has not been improved obviously, which lead to the poor labor productivity performance.European Commission has proposed“Europe 2020”strategy for the next ten years this March, which continues to consider innovation as the engine of economic growth. Once the transition of the EU’s enonomy from traditional economy to innovation-based economy would complete, EU’s economic growth will pick up.更多还原