【作者】 陈雪原；

【导师】 蔡昉；

【作者基本信息】 中国社会科学院研究生院 ， 劳动经济学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 改革开放以来,中国农村地区内部收入差距不断拉大,甚至超过了城乡差距的增幅,成为推进新农村建设的重要动因。长期以来,关于农村地区差距问题偏向基于年鉴数据的宏观层面研究,微观理论研究不足。而在新农村实践中,往往缺乏村庄类型清晰的区分,政策针对性不强。本文在农村地区最基本的微观构成单元村庄层面上,主要从收入和积累两个角度,探讨村庄发展差异的演变趋势、趋同性及其影响因素。考虑到村庄间形态各异,规模小,易受内外部变量冲击,短期差异变化具有偶然性,需要对村庄进行长期分析以尽可能地剔除掉随机干扰因素,抓住村庄差距演化的内在规律。论文使用北京郊区40个村庄的1978、1988、1998和2006年四个时点构成的面板数据,以农村三十年改革为背景,对村庄发展差异进行了实证分析和解释,论证了村庄演化的动态过程,引申出对新农村建设的含义。论文第一章阐述了新农村建设的时代背景与面临的主要困局。由此,新农村建设中的三个主要问题:经济转型阶段村庄发展差异的演化趋势是什么?村际收敛的性质、影响因素和条件是什么?对新农村建设有何含义?第二章和第三章分别阐述了村庄发展与新农村建设的相关文献发展脉络、理论基础及概念。第四章针对第一个问题,总结了村庄在转型期的经济总收入、人均收入(农户发展水平指标)、人均所有者权益(村集体资本积累水平指标)以及人口规模等方面发展差异的演化趋势。第五至七章针对第二个问题,分析了转型期村庄间在收入水平和积累水平上的收敛性质。研究发现:1、二者均存在穷村增长更快的现象(β-绝对收敛),但后者在1988-1998年期间只有在控制了区位、村干部素质等变量后,才会获得收敛(β-条件收敛)。区位、村班子素质及产业结构等因素可以解释村际β-收敛的速度差异。从离散程度看,前者随时间推移逐渐缩小(δ-收敛),且贡献主要来自平原、山区和城乡结合部的组间差,后者则趋于不断扩大,其中,平原地区贡献最大。收敛趋势差异导致村庄向(高积累,高收入)和(低积累,高收入)两种主要类型村庄演化,这意味着村庄向人口净流入村和人口净流出村两种类型转化;2、村庄是否成为人口净流入村的概率受到村社区集体积累水平、生活居住水平、区位和产业结构等因素影响。第八章,基于因子分析,建立了一套村庄发展可持续性的评估指标体系,作为村庄类型划分和衰落预警的参照。第九章,以村庄间经济收敛和空间要素集聚为主线,基于实证分析结果,结合40村的发展经验,提出了推进新农村建设的收敛与集聚战略以及基于空间区位的政策组合,着重指出要推开社区集体经济产权制度改革。第十章给出了全文的结论。这篇论文的贡献主要有五点:首先,总结了在经济转型期村庄发展差异的演化趋势,提出了一个关于村庄发展演化动态模型的假说,阐述了村庄类型的动态演化方向;其次,开展了村域经济收敛性的实证检验,对假说进行了论证,并揭示了β-收敛与δ-发散并存的现实可能;再次,通过位置效用理论分析了村庄人口规模趋异的影响因素,对假说论证提供了进一步支撑;四是建立了村庄可持续发展能力的评估指标体系,为村庄类型区分提供了数量参照;五是从收敛和集聚的双重角度提出了的新农村建设的战略构想。更多还原

【Abstract】 The objective of New Countryside Construction should be meet only if the disparity in the inner of the rural district as well as that in the urban-rural district become narrower in the meantime, namely, the convergence among the villages should be an indicator for the successful construction. Using the panal datas from the investigation on the 40 villages in the suburban of Beijing City, the disseration analyzes the convergence characteristics of the 40 villages in two dimesions:income(per capital income ; PCIN) and asset accumulation(per capital owner’s net property ;PCOP) in the village(namely, the per capital net accomulation of the village-collective). The dissertation finds out the main factors influcing the dyamic change orientation of the village population amount by a logit model. Finally, a set of indicator system for evaluating the village’s sustained development ability and a stratagic framework for the new countryside is founded.The tasks of the chapter 1 is a introduction for a few of the basic and necessary issues of the dissertation: motivation, objection and the methods and so on.Specially, three questions are asked:‘what are the stylized facts across the village development’,‘what are the variables influcing the dyamic change tendency of the village development’,‘What is the meaning for New Countryside Construction according to the tendency’.Including the chapter 2 to 3, the theory basis and concepts as well as the related papers collection are set up.Then, as the main body of the dissertation, the chapter 4 to 6, draw the conclusions about the stylized facts across the village development and about the convergence characteristics for the PCIN has both theβ-convergence and theδ-convergence, but the PCOP has only theβ-(conditional)convergence . The village characteristics shape the untility function of the farmers in the village and set up a incentive mechanism for the labours or members of the households to move out or stay still. In chapter 7, a logit analysis on the population change of the villages is carried out and the variables influcing the change is found out.Chapter 8 and chapter 9 belong to the application parts of the dissertation, the envalue systems and New Countryside Construction stratage are set up. The dissertation is summarized in the chapter 10.In short, the contribution of the dissertation can be classified in five points. In the first place, the dissertation draws the stylized facts about the village development and set up a dyamic model hypothesis for the village development; Secondly, using the convergence methods offers a argument for the hypothesis and finds the facts that both theβ-convergence and theδ-divergence appear in the mean time; And then, explain the reasons for village population change trends; Meanwhile,for a practical application for policy makers , based on the research above, a factor analysis method is introduced and set up a system of indicators to envalue on the ability for the village sustainable development. Finally, a strategic framework for New Countryside Construction is constituted, the core idea of which is to boost the convergence and conglomeration across villages at the same time.更多还原