【作者】 于秋阳；

【导师】 冯学钢；

【作者基本信息】 华东师范大学 ， 世界经济， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 改革开放30年来,中国旅游产业发展迅速并成为国民经济的战略性支柱产业。然而,在追求快速发展的背后,产业未来发展过程中将会面临的一系列深层次问题也愈加值得关注：究竟哪些因素会成为各区域以及我国旅游产业增长的后劲来源和潜在推动力?而哪些潜在的因素又会成为制约各地旅游产业的竞争力和发展力得以充分发挥的瓶颈和软肋?这些问题引起人们对旅游产业发展潜力的关注与探讨。旅游产业潜力的研究是衡量区域旅游产业发展前景和后续能力的一种综合测度；资料显示,既有的研究成果对旅游产业潜力的研究尚未形成成熟的定性理论框架和定量测度模型。本文以此为切入点,遵循发现问题、分析问题、解决问题的路径,运用经济学的相关理论和研究方法,通过文献述评、概念界定、理论解析、实证评价、结论剖析和对策设计的步骤对旅游产业潜力展开定性与定量相结合的研究。本文首先分析了旅游产业潜力的理论基础,产业潜力的构成要素关系到产业竞争力和可持续发展力的实现与保障,产业运行取决于结构——行为——绩效(SCP)中各个要素环节的积累和互动,而产业的发展则取决于内部各个要素的增长,因此,结合产业经济学、竞争力经济学、发展经济学和区域经济学的相关理论分析了旅游产业潜力的理论基础；其次,对国内外相关研究做了综述,包括旅游产业潜力的概念、研究内容、研究方法、评价指标体系和模型等,并对研究回顾做了梳理和评价,据此形成了本文的研究切入点。学术界对潜力的概念界定主要持两种观点：一是“差距说”,着眼于未来的成长空间,强调潜力是将所掌握的资源得到最优配置时所能实现的理想水平与当前实际水平之间的差距；二是“支持保障说”,着眼于未来的发展能力,强调潜力即是现有的、能够保障未来发展的各项资源及其他要素的总和,是对现有各项要素所起到的支持和保障作用的综合评价,即“支持保障力”。基于对其理论基础的剖析和相关研究的综述,本文认为,旅游产业潜力是一种非现实的、潜在的能力,是由旅游产业内一系列隐性因素所构成的、通过一定条件的刺激能够在未来得以发挥并转化为现实竞争力的能力,而这一未来发展能力实际上在当前表现为支持并保障未来竞争力得以实现的一种能力和优势的积累。据此,本文进一步厘清了旅游产业潜力与竞争力和可持续发展力的关系。在概念界定的基础上,结合对其理论基础的剖析和对既有研究成果的修正,本文将旅游产业潜力视为一个复合的系统,并将其划分为内在成长潜力(Potential of Internal Growth)、市场扩张潜力(Potential of Market Extension)和可持续发展潜力(Potential of Sustainable Development)三个子系统构成,从而构建了旅游产业的IMS理论分析框架；据此,本文进一步分析了三个子系统的来源,包括产业结构、产业聚集、创新能力、企业素质、市场供求状况、区位条件、制度、产业基础支撑和环境保障等方面,为下文构建定量的评价指标体系提供了理论依据。对潜力的研究最终要落实到定量评价的实证层面。基于旅游产业自身关联性强的特征,本文分析了旅游产业体系的动态性、开放性和边界的模糊性,结合上文构建的IMS理论框架分析阐明了旅游产业潜力研究所对应的产业体系范围；据此,根据中国统计年鉴等官方统计数据,选取了内在成长潜力、市场扩张潜力和可持续发展潜力三个子系统所分别对应的指标共55个指标,并通过专家问卷咨询剔除了相关性较小的指标,最终选定46个指标,构建旅游产业潜力的评价指标体系。在实证研究部分,本文首先做了评价设计,包括评价方法的选择、评价模型和权重设定的方式。其次,基于上文构建的评价指标体系,以中国31个省市自治区为研究目标,选取2002-2007六年的数据并完成数据处理,因子分析、主成分分析、聚类分析等计量工具对各地旅游产业潜力展开分层和综合评价,结果显示,制度支持、资源供给、产业规模、市场需求、环境保障、产业集群、产业创新能力是影响旅游产业潜力的7个主要因素；同时,根据对潜力得分与区域经济发展水平的拟合分析证明了旅游产业潜力对地区经济增长(GDP)的正向促进关系。根据潜力的综合评价值,本文通过聚类分析得出结论：中国旅游产业潜力呈东部强、中西部较弱的分和态势,北京、上海、广东分居全国的前三位；为进一步验证这一区域差异结论,本文引入八大经济区的划分方式,结果显示,当前东部沿海经济区、南部沿海经济区和北部沿海经济区的旅游产业潜力最强,三区所辖省份基本都属于东部区域,验证了上文东部强、中西部弱的分布结论：为进一步细化东部区域中旅游产业潜力的具体分布态势,本文引入东部三大经济圈的划分方式,分析可知；当前,我国珠江三角洲和长江三角洲经济圈的旅游产业潜力较为突出,京津冀(环渤海经济圈)位居第三位。旅游产业潜力是由产业的内在成长潜力、市场扩张潜力和可持续发展潜力构成,通过对三个子系统内部的各个影响因素及其重要性的具体分析可知：资源供给(贡献率20.78%)对旅游产业发展潜力的影响最为突出；基础设施(20.61%)、市场需求(12.23%)产业规模与产业集群(13.09%与9.50%)的影响力位居其次；而产业的技术创新能力(10.41%)、制度支持(9.38%)、环境保障条件(3.02%)等要素对旅游产业潜力的影响并不显著,并基于各影响要素的得分和排名情况,总结出各地旅游产业潜力的提升路径。最后,本文根据全文的研究内容和结论,提出了相应的对策与建议,即通过激活旅游产业潜力的来源、促进区域旅游产业潜力的协调发展和引导旅游产业潜力向现实层面过渡三个方面综合提升旅游产业的潜力,以期为旅游产业的发展方向和战略制定提供一定决策参考。潜力的研究是一个动态的过程,本文为旅游产业潜力构建了一套定性的IMS理论分析框架和定量的评价指标体系,并做了相关的实证研究和分析；囿于数据的局限、国内外前期研究的薄弱、笔者知识背景和研究视角的局限,在研究中还存在诸多的不足,包括基于面板数据的动态评价、动态赋权、运用区域敛散性分析进一步剖析旅游产业潜力的区域差异以及构建潜力向现实层面的定性和定量转化机制等环节,对此,笔者将在后续研究中予以深入和完善。更多还原

【Abstract】 During the 30 years of our reform opening, tourism industry in China has been developing so fast and become the strategic pillars of national economy. With this great opportunity and challenge, we have to pay more and more attention to its competitiveness and sustainability in the future. Potential is the accumulative phase of the competitiveness and sustainability, thus, potential of tourism industry is the premise and base of its competitiveness and also the source and guarantee of its sustainability. As a result, this paper believe that, it does good to figure out what is the potential factor of tourism industry, exploit to the full its favorable conditions and avoid unfavorable ones according to the local conditions for forming the competitiveness and making sure the healthy, effective and sustainable development of this industry. Meanwhile, comparing with competitiveness and other related subjects, research on the potential of tourism industry is much weaker, therefore, it is very important to do qualitative research and quantitative research on this subject, on the macro level, it is beneficial to the government and other related managerial organizations to build practical policy and decisions; on the academic level, it is beneficial to the researches to obtain a set of researching vies and methodology for deep study in this field, which is the practical importance and value of this paper.Potential of tourism industry is the researching object of this paper, after the related literature review of the connotative definition of potentiality, the author believes that, potential is the accumulative phase of the competitiveness and sustainability, which is the beginning point to define this subject, namely potential of tourism industry is composed of the recessive components of this industry, which is also the accumulative phase as well as the source and guarantee of the dominant competitiveness and sustainability, then, this paper clarifies the relationship between this subject and related definitions.Firstly, the qualitative study on potential of tourism industry is based on economic theory. According the analysis of its definition above, we know that the components of potential of the industry is the important guarantee and related to the realization of the competitiveness of the industry. According to Industrial Economics, the operation of the industry depends on the accumulation and reaction of all its inner and outer components; in a similar way, the development of the industry depends on the growing up of the components. Thus, combining the theory of competitive economics, industrial economics and developing economics as well as the related literature review of the influencing factors of this researching subject, this pare clarifies the components of potential of tourism industry, which includes industrial structure, industrial assembly, creation capability, supply and demand on the market, system and policy, basic support and the industry and the environment guarantee of the industry. As a result, this paper builds the framework for the subject, namely the potential of tourism industry is composed of this system, potential of internal growth, potential of market extension and potential of sustainable development, and then, explains the influencing factors of potential tourism industry.Based on the qualitative research above and according to the characteristic of tourism industry-strong relevance with other industries and combining with the theoretic framework of the researching subject, this paper analyzes the characteristic of the system of tourism industry, which is dynamic, opening and undefined bindery, then clarifies the industrial scale of this study. Accordingly, this paper chooses 55 indexes on the basis of the Chinese statistics Yearbooks and other official statistics and selects 46 after expert consultation. After that, this paper reviews and analyzes the evaluating methodology, index system and models of the researching subject, refers to that of related field and finally builds the evaluation index system.The empirical study on potential of tourism industry is base on the evaluation index system above, this paper chooses 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government as researching aim, selects the data of year 2002-2007 of those regions and then after the data processing, it carries out the layered and comprehensive evaluation to their potential of tourism industry with metering methods of factor analysis, principal component analysis and cluster analysis. The result shows that support of system and policy, supply on the market, industrial scale, demand on the market, environmental guarantee, industrial assembly, creation capacity is the 7 main influencing factors of the researching subject. Meanwhile, this paper carries out the fitting test according the score of potential of every region, which proves that the potential of tourism industry is positive to improve the regional tourism economic growth and regional GDP. Cluster analysis shows the strengths and weaknesses of potential in every region, accordingly, this paper combines this result with three kinds of regional division in China, namely the division of east-middle-west, the division of 8 comprehensive economic regions and the division of three economic circles. The result shows that, at present, the distribution of potential of tourism industry in China is stronger in the east and weaker in the middle and the west, which is anastigmatic to the distribution of that of the 8 comprehensive economic regions. After that, this paper analyze the distribution mentioned above of the three economic circles, all of them locate in the east of China. The result shows that, at present, potential of tourism industry is the strongest in Pearl River Delta, which takes the second place in the Yangtze River delta and third in circum-Bohai region.Potential of tourism industry is composed of three systems, potential of internal growth, the potential of market extension and potential of sustainable development. Through the analysis to the influencing factors as well as their importance of every system, we can see that political environment gives the strongest support to the comprehensive potential; the supply capability of resource, industrial scale and potential of demand and consumption of the regional marked also plays key roles to the comprehensive potential; natural and ecological environment as well as the creation capability also takes effect to the comprehensive potential, but not that strong, which depends on the specific regional conditions. As a result, this paper analyze and concludes four paths to accumulate potential of tourism industry, namely driving force of political system, driving force of resource, driving force of demand on the marked and driving force of industrial scale. Accordingly and at last, this paper brings forward some suggestions in order to look into the status quo and characteristics of the potential of tourism industry in China and based on the reality to offer practical and effective reference for decision makers as well.The study of potential is a dynamic process, many researching points is of theoretical and practical meaning, such as deepening the research on its theoretical framework, dynamic evaluation and finding out the positive and effective way to accelerate the transformation from potential to competitiveness and sustainability. To those points mentioned above, the Author will pay more attention and try to improve in the subsequent studies更多还原