【作者】 王原；

【导师】 王祥荣；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 环境科学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 20世纪80年代以来,以气候变暖为标志的全球气候变化逐渐引起各国政府、国际组织和科学工作者的高度重视。自20世纪90年代脆弱性概念开始引入气候变化研究领域,尤其是2001年IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)第三次评估报告对气候变化脆弱性给出了明确的定义以来,脆弱性已逐渐成为全球气候变化研究的重点和热点领域。自21世纪以来,国外不同领域和学科的学者对气候变化脆弱性概念体系展开研究,并相继在国家和区域尺度上开展了气候变化对农业、林业、水资源、生态环境、社会经济以及人体健康等方面的脆弱性评价。相对于国外的研究,我国气候变化脆弱性研究起步较晚,已有的研究主要集中在对国外气候变化脆弱性概念体系研究的综述,以及在农田和森林生态系统方面开展了一些基于气候变化影响的脆弱性评价,缺乏对气候变化脆弱性理论和评价方法的系统研究,评价对象也仅针对少数自然生态系统类型。另一方面,近年来,各国政府以及IPCC、UNFCCC(United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change)、UNEP(United Nations Environment Programme)等相关机构已经把城市区域的气候变化问题以及应对策略作为全球气候变化研究的重点,并积极推进“城市应对气候变化的行动规划”以及“低碳城市”的规划和建设。因此,开展城市化区域的气候变化脆弱性研究,对拓展和深化气候变化脆弱性相关理论方法在城市尺度上的应用,科学指导城市应对气候变化具有重要的意义。上海作为典型的河口城市,一方面,在全球气候变化背景下,极易受到海平面上升、极端气候事件、盐水入侵、湿地生境退化、水资源的时相改变等众多影响,属于高度脆弱的河口自然生态系统；另一方面,作为中国城市化水平最高的国际化大都市,人口和经济资源高度集中,将进一步放大气候变化的社会经济影响。因此,选择河口城市上海作为案例研究对象,不仅对上海实现全球气候变化和快速城市化背景下的可持续发展具有重要的战略意义,而且对其他海岸带城市和河口城市开展应对气候变化的相关研究和实践具有一定的借鉴价值。本文从城市化区域气候变化脆弱性评价的理论和方法研究入手,剖析城市化和气候变化的耦合关系,明确城市化区域气候变化脆弱性的概念体系和评价模型,设计评价的主要模块内容和相关方法技术体系；在此基础上,以河口城市上海为例,开展气候变化脆弱性的综合评价案例研究。本论文主要研究结论包括理论方法和案例研究两个层面,并在此基础上提出上海应对气候变化的策略建议：1)城市化区域气候变化脆弱性评价的理论和方法研究城市化与局地气候变化之间存在着客观的动态耦合关系,主要表现为气候变化对城市“社会-经济-自然”复合生态系统的多级网络影响；城市化过程中的社会经济发展、能源需求和城市空间扩张对局地气候变化的胁迫；以及气候变化与城市化动态耦合的环境库兹涅茨曲线关系。构建城市化区域气候变化脆弱性评价概念模型。其中,评价的组成要素包括风险度、敏感度和适应度；胁迫输入要素包括气候变化胁迫和城市化胁迫；策略输出要素包括减缓和适应两个方面；各要素具有不同的时空尺度和系统属性特征,要素间存在不同类型的作用机制,包括决定流、影响流、响应流和信息流。根据评价模型,具体评价过程可归纳为6个模块,分别为城市化区域气候变化事实和情景预测,城市化进程对局地气候变化的胁迫分析,气候变化对城市复合生态系统的影响评价,基于时空尺度的城市化区域气候变化综合脆弱度评价以及城市应对气候变化的综合策略研究等；相关评价方法和技术涉及气候情景分析法、模型模拟法、指标体系法、决策支持评价法等方面。2)上海气候变化脆弱性评价的案例研究城市化对上海气候变化的影响方面,近50年城区增温趋势显著,增温速率为0.51℃/10a；气温变化在不同城市化发展阶段表现出不同的变化规律,自20世纪90年代进入高速城市化阶段以来,增温幅度显著增加,城市化对局地增温的贡献率高达49.51%。在此基础上,重点关注城市化过程中的社会经济发展驱动、能源需求增长和城市空间的扩张对局地气候变化的胁迫机制,其中生产总值、非农人口数、工业能源终端消费量、房屋竣工面积以及耕地面积等指标对城郊温差的胁迫效应极为显著,其胁迫关系除生产总值符合对数增长曲线以外,其余指标均符合三次多项式曲线;进一步分析上海市城市化压力综合指数(Urban Pressure Index, UPI)的胁迫机制,研究表明在不同的城市化发展阶段UPI指数对城市局地气候的胁迫存在着差异,可分为低强度胁迫期、线性胁迫期以及缓慢胁迫期,其变化规律在一定程度上验证了城市化对局地气候变化的影响存在环境库兹涅茨现象。气候变化对上海“社会-经济-自然”复合生态系统的影响方面,分别从定性和定量两个角度展开研究。定性分析表明,气候变化对上海自然生态系统的主要影响包括盐水入侵,风暴潮和洪涝灾害影响加剧,海岸侵蚀和潮滩湿地减少,城市供水系统稳定性的减少、需水量增加以及加剧水质污染等；对社会经济的影响主要包括农业、运输业、金融、保险以及旅游业的影响,能源需求量的增加,海岸防护工程、洪涝排水系、供水供电等基础设施的影响,空气质量下降以及对居民健康的影响等方面。为了进一步探讨气候变化影响的量化评价方法,本文尝试运用AVIM2’‘大气-植被”生态过程模型,量化评估气候变化和土地利用变化对上海农田生态系统净初级生产力的影响。气候变化综合脆弱度评价方面,基于评价指标体系,分别从时间和空间的尺度,分析城市化区域气候变化脆弱度指数(Urban Climate Change VulnerabilityIndex, UCCVI)的变化。从时间序列的变化来看,1998-2006年期间,上海UCCVI指数呈现出波动变化的特征,变化幅度较少,总体有减小的趋势,其中化石燃料消耗、水文和水资源、植被生态系统功能、人类健康、经济发展对能源需求的依赖性、人力和社会资本等要素的变化对其影响显著；从空间分异来看,上海气候变化高脆弱区和较高脆弱区面积为447.66 km2和1849.07 km2,分别占上海市总面积的7.06%和29.16%。3)上海应对气候变化的策略建议基于上海气候变化脆弱性综合评价结果,分别从减缓和适应两个方面,提出相关应对策略建议。其中,减缓策略建议包括优化产业结构,转变经济增长模式；发展可再生能源,改善能源消费结构；节约能源,提高能效；“低碳城市”的空间规划策略；以“碳排放交易”为切入点,推进低碳化发展的市场化措施等领域。适应策略建议包括构建上海气候变化背景下的自然生态安全保护格局；建设城市森林,增加城市碳汇；调节城市水资源供需平衡,增加城市应对洪水灾害的能力；加强气候变化对城市居民健康的影响识别和应对；建立有效的气候灾害应急和响应机制等领域。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the 1980s, global climate change, characterized by global warming, has a great deal of attention from governments, international societies and scientific researchers. Beginning in the 1990s, when the idea of fragility was introduced into the research domain of climate change, and more significantly, in2001 when the third assessment report gave a clear definition of climate change vulnerability, climate change vulnerability has become a focus and a hot-spot domain of research on global climate change. Since the turn of 21st century, foreign scholars from different fields and disciplines have discussed the conceptual framework of vulnerability to climate change and launched practical climate change vulnerability assessments on agriculture, forestry, water resources, ecological systems, human health and the socio-economic system. Compared with research abroad, vulnerability to climate change research in China has started later. This research mainly focused on the overview of the concept of vulnerability to climate change abroad, and also some case studies on agriculture and forestry ecosystem based on climate change impact analysis, which rarely involved the study of theory and methodology of climate change vulnerability and had a limited focus on natural systems. On the other hand, in recent years, governments of different countries and the relevant institutions like IPCC, UNFCCC, and UNEP have considered the issues of climate change on city scale as a focal point in the global climate change research field, and have also actively promoted "Climate Change Action Plan" and "Low Carbon City" planning and construction. Thus, the study of climate change vulnerability at the urban scale is so meaningful, not only for improving and expanding the theories and methodologies of climate change vulnerability at the urban scale, but also for guiding the urban relative planning and strategies in response to climate change with scientific knowledge.Shanghai is a typical estuarine city. On the one hand, this city is a vulnerable estuarine ecosystem, which is simply affected by sea level rise, extreme climate events, salt water intrusion, degradation of wetland habitats, water resource change and so on. On the other hand, Shanghai is also an international metropolitan area with a high population density, economic resource density, and the highest urbanization rate in China, where climate change has a dramatic impact on social life and economy. Thus, the case study of Shanghai has a strategic significance to urban sustainable development with the background of global climate change and fast urbanization processes, which could be also referenced by other coastal cities and estuarine cities. This paper addressed the relative theories and methodologies of climate change vulnerability in an urbanized area, including the coupling relationship between urbanization and climate change, the conceptual framework of climate change vulnerability of an urbanized area, the conceptual model of vulnerability assessment, and also related assessment methodologies and techniques. Based on the theoretical framework, the estuarine city of Shanghai, as a case study, was studied through the aspect of climate change vulnerability integrated assessment. The main conclusions in this paper are comprised of both theoretical and practical aspects. Some strategic recommendations of mitigation and adaptation polices were also proposed for Shanghai in response to climate change.1) Study of relative theories and methodologies of climate change vulnerability in an urbanized areaThere is an objective dynamic coupling relationship between urbanization and local climate change, which consists of the multi-level network effects of climate change on urban "social-economic-nature" complex ecosystems, the pressure of social-economic development, energy requirement and urban land sprawl in the process of urbanization on local climate change, and the dynamic coupling relationship of environmental Kuznets curve between urbanization and climate change.The conceptual model of climate change vulnerability assessment in an urbanized area was established in this research. According to the model, the structural elements of climate change vulnerability are exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The exposure elements are climate change exposure and urbanization exposure. The elements of strategy output in response to climate change are mitigation and adaptation. Each element in the model has its unique characteristics of temporal and spatial scales, and system attribution. Different kinds of flow type could be identified among elements, including decision flow, affecting flow, response flow and information flow.According to the model, the whole process of urban climate change vulnerability assessment could be divided into six analysis modules, including climate change fact and prediction, urbanization stress on local climate change, climate change impacts on urban complex ecosystems and index system based climate change vulnerability assessment at the spatial-temporal scale. Relative methodologies and techniques for assessment include climate change scenario analysis, model stimulation, evaluation index system, GIS and RS techniques, and decision-maker support tools.2) The case study of Shanghai climate change vulnerability assessmentIn terms of the urbanization impact on local climate change, in the most recent 50 years, there was a significant warming trend in the urban area with the rate of 0.51℃/10a; distinguishing features of temperature change were identified in different stages of the urbanization process. Since the 1990s, when Shanghai phased into the high-speed urbanization process, the degree of increase in temperature was higher, while the rate of urbanization contribution on local warming was 49.51%. Based on the study of climate change facts in Shanghai, the drive of social-economic development, energy requirement increases, and urban land sprawl were highlighted with the consideration of their stresses on local climate change. The results indicate that the stresses of indexes of gross domestic product, non-agricultural population, consumption of industrial energy, area of floor space of completed buildings and agricultural area, and differences of annual mean temperatures between urban and suburban areas are extremely significant. The dynamic relationship between the index of non-agricultural population and local climate change is perfectly reflected by a logarithmic growth curve, while a cubic polynomial curve is suitable to other indexes. Combining these signal indexes, UPI (Urban Pressure Index) was established to describe the whole urbanization process stress on local climate change. The results indicate that different aspects of UPI stress on local climate change in different stages of the urbanization process. The urbanization process could be identified as three different stages as follows:low intensity stress phrase, linear stress phrase, and slow stress phrase. The variation of three phrases also verified the theoretical hypothesis of an environmental Kuznets curve relating urbanization and climate change.The impacts of climate change affecting the "social-economy-nature" ecosystem in Shanghai were studied qualitatively and quantitatively. Qualitative analysis shows that the impacts of climate change on the natural eco-system in Shanghai were salt water intrusion, increases of storm surges and flood disasters, coastal erosion and decrease of tidal wetlands, decreasing stability of urban water supply systems, water demand increases, and water pollution. The impacts on the social and economic system include impacts on agriculture, transportation, finance, insurance and tourism industries; increasing demand for energy; impacts on coastal protection works, flood drainage systems, water supply, and other infrastructure; decreasing air quality and its impacts on human health. In order to make a further discussion on quantitative assessments of climate change impacts, this paper uses the AVIM2 "atmosphere-vegetation" ecological process model to quantitative evaluate the impacts on the net primary productivity of Shanghai’s farmland ecosystem by climate change and agricultural land use change.The assessment of comprehensive climate change vulnerability, based on the evaluation indicator system, analyzes the change of the Urban Climate Change Vulnerability Index (UCCVI) on the scales of time and space, respectively. From the perspective of time series, during the period from 1998 to 2006, Shanghai UCCVI shows a small fluctuation and a decreasing trend in total amount, which is due to fossil fuel consumption, hydrology and water resources, vegetation ecosystem function, human health, economic development demand on energy, and human and social capital. From the view of spatial variation, the most vulnerable area to climate change in Shanghai comprise 447.66 km2of area, accounting for 7.06% of the total area of Shanghai, and highly vulnerable land area is 1849.07 km2, accounting for 29.16%.3) Shanghai’s strategy on climate changeBased on the comprehensive assessment of the climate change vulnerability of Shanghai, we put forward coping strategies corresponding to mitigation and adaptation. The mitigation strategies include the optimization of industrial structure and transforming economic growth models; development of renewable energy, improvement of the energy consumption structure; energy efficiency improvement; promoting the "low-carbon city" as the entry point and promotion of "carbon trading" development through market-oriented measures. Adaptation strategies include building an ecological security pattern for Shanghai; construction of urban forests, increasing urban carbon sinks; regulation of urban water resources balance, increasing the response capacity to flood disaster; identification and response to climate change impacts on urban human health; establishment of an effective contingency; and response mechanisms to climate disaster.更多还原