全球价值链下我国制造业升级研究

【作者】 涂颖清；

【导师】 芮明杰；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 产业经济， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 20世纪末21世纪初以来,体现全球范围内资源有效整合和利用的国际分工模式发生了巨大的变化,竞争的加剧使跨国公司越来越感觉到仅仅依靠自身力量难以有效应对激烈的竞争,于是纷纷调整发展战略,将原来全部由自己承担的一体化生产进行分解,加工组装等低端环节外包出去,自己保留最具竞争力、同时也是利润最丰厚的研发、品牌、售后服务等核心环节,全球价值链理论对当前的这种现象进行了很好的解释。全球价值链整合的出发点在于；①实现各环节中各具比较优势的企业能“善其所长”；②“归核化”的趋势,使企业专注于关键环节、核心业务的经营,而将自己不擅长的非关键环节和非核心业务实施分包。由于发展中国家劳动力廉价、资源丰富、又有着迫切发展本国经济的愿望,发达国家就将获利最少的、又消耗能源的加工制造环节转移至发展中国家,而他们主要从事研发、技术创新产品开创期的生产以及产品营销环节,以攫取高附加值的垄断利润和经济租金,形成了发达国家企业控制发展中国家企业的局面。随着全球价值链融入的广度和深度的不断加深,我国制造业取得了巨大的成就,在世界经济舞台上的影响力不断增强。但同时我们又必须清醒地看到目前我国制造业处于全球价值链的低端。如何解释这一现象?如何解决这一问题?这成为了当前国内外学者和政策制定者非常关心的前沿问题。从已有的文献来看,围绕全球价值链理论学者们从全球价值链及其治理综述、全球价值链与产业集群、全球价值链与地方产业网络、全球价值链与产业升级等方面进行了研究。尽管这些研究促使中国学者和企业界加强了对全球价值链的了解,但是从这些研究可以看出,结合中国实际进行系统分析的文献还不多。本论文是教育部“国际金融危机应对研究”应急课题“国际金融危机的环境中加快构建我国制造业体系的对策研究”(批准号：2009JYJR047)、211三期重点项目“中国产业的科学发展与自主创新”(批准号：211XK06)的子项目。依据国际分工理论、全球价值链理论,本论文的命题旨在解决四大问题,即我国制造业在全球价值链中所处的位置的原因分析；我国制造业升级的影响因素分析；我国制造业升级的路径分析；以及我国制造业升级的机制设计。这四大问题从逻辑上环环相扣,层层深入,可以阐述全球价值链下我国制造业升级的基本命题。以此命题展开,本文首先通过RCA指数、IIT指数、VAR指数对我国制造业在全球价值链的位置进行了判断,得出的结论是我国制造业整体上处于中等竞争力水平,获得的加工贸易增值率虽有所增长,但不高；处于全球价值链分工地位的较低端位置。通过大量的国内外统计数据对比分析,我们可以发现导致这一问题的原因是“四个失衡”：①贸易增长结构的失衡；②能源、环境可持续发展的失衡；③各服务功能发展的失衡；④技术创新对产业升级的支撑度的失衡。并探讨了我国制造业未来发展的制约性因素：①比较成本优势逐渐消失；②自身发展路径的锁定。在这样的背景下中国制造业升级是必然的,不进则退。但升级过程并不是孤立进行的,而是一个系统工程。产业升级受到技术能力、高级人力资本要素供给等内生因素和生产性服务业的发展、全球价值链治理模式、政策体系、国际贸易等外生因素的共同影响,各要素之间的互相依存与强化更是升级的动力来源。拓展Humphrey和Schmitz(2002)关于产业升级的四种方式,笔者提出同一产品分工链上的升级、同一产业内产品结构的升级、不同要素密集度产业间升级多条升级路径,并结合我国制造业发展现状进行了探讨,最后通过理论模型的检验以及实证分析提出了我国制造业升级的创新机制设计体系。本文综合运用数理统计、实证研究和交叉研究等研究方法,从全球价值链的角度研究了我国制造业升级的基本命题。主要的创新点在以下三方面：第一,结合Humphrey和Schmitz(2002)、波特(2002)、Gereffi(1999)以及Poon(2004)的观点探讨了多种方式的升级路径：①同一产品分工链上的升级；②同一产业内产品结构的升级；③不同要素密集度产业间的升级。这三种升级方式是相互联系的,并结合我国国情提出了外源式升级路径以同一产品分工链上的升级方式为主,内源式升级路径可以采取上述三种升级方式。第二,参照Feenstra和Hanson(1995)模型,在该模型中将制度变量的影响加以考虑,通过推导得出的结论是：当发展中国家技术水平出现了相对发达国家的增长、制度环境得到改善时,就都会带来在价值链上位置的两端延伸。与国外企业相比,在传统的一些产业上我国不具有优势,我国可以通过发展战略新兴产业,建立自己主导的全球价值链。第三,本文选取了三十一个省8年的面板数据,通过计量检验考察了技术创新和制度创新对中国制造业发展的影响。与已有文献相比,主要具有以下优势。首先不同省份(地区)之间可能存在不同历史背景或自然地理条件等不可观测的异质性。这些异质性因素一旦同时与误差项和自变量向量相关,那么将导致回归结果出现偏误,模型将出现由缺省变量导致的内生性问题。而这些异质性在固定效应模型中均被一阶差分掉了,而且本研究一并估计了随机效应模型,从而使得本文的回归结果更为稳健。其次基于中国省级固定效应的面板数据,分析可以有效的扩大样本量,从而在统计上满足大样本的渐进性性质,使实证分析更加可信。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the late 20th century to the beginning 21st century, the international division of labor model of significant changes have taken place to reflect a global scope and use of resources to effectively integerate. With the aggravating competition, multinationals increasingly felt that it was difficult to deal with fierce competition effectively on their own strength, and is adjusting their development strategies, such as low-end processing and assembly areas will be outsourced to retain the most competitive process, which are core resources including the most lucrative research and development, brand, service, marketing channels. The global value chain is the best theory to explain the current pattern of this division. Global value chain integration is the starting point:①comparative advantages enterprises can be good to their abilities among the respective links;②"refocusing" trend make enterprises focusing on key links, the core business operation, and non-critical links and non-core businesses are subcontracted. Developing countries not only have cheap labors, abundant resources, but also a pressing desire to develop their economies. So developed countries distribut manufacturing and processing sectors to the developing world which are benefit least, the consumption of resources, and they are mainly engaged in R&D, product which is a early period of technological innovation, marketing links, and so as to grab high-value monopoly profits and economic rents, so formate the situation which developed countries control developing countries.As China’s integration into the global value chain in the breadth and on the depth deeply, china’s manufacturing industry has acquired of the great achievements and effect is strengthing on world’s economics. But at the same we must see clearly that our manufacturing industry is at the end of global value chains. How to explain the phenomenon and how to solve problem are becoming cutting-edge issues which the current domestic and foreign scholars and policy-makers are very concerned about. From the existing literature about the global value chain theory, the global value chain and its overview of the basic theory of governance, global value chains and industry clusters, global value chains and local industry networks, global value chains and industrial upgrading have been studied, and these helped Chinese scholars and business research to theory strong a profound and comprehensive understanding for global value chain, but it can be seen from these studies that needs to be further strengthened combined with China’s reality.This paper is Sub-topics of the Ministry of Education "the International Financial Crisis Responsing Study" emergency issues "Under the International Financial Crisis Environment, Accelerating the Construction of our Manufacturing System Countermeasures Research" (approval number:2009JYJR047) and 211Ⅲkey projects "China’s Industrial Development and Innovation of Science"(approval number:211XK06).According to the international division of labor theory and the global value chain theory, this paper’s proposition designed to address four major issues, namely: causes of China’s manufacturing industry in the global value chain position; factors affecting manufacturing upgrading in China; upgrading path for China’s manufacturing industry; China’s manufacturing industry upgrading mechanism. These four issues interlock logically and levely, and can set out basic problems in China’s manufacturing industry under global value chain.Expanding this proposition, this article first through the RCA index, IIT index, VAR index of China’s manufacturing industry in the global value chain, judged the location and concluded that China’s manufacturing industry as a whole in the middle-competitive, and despite the growth of processing trade value, not high status in the global value chain, and the lower end of the division of labor.Through a large number of statistical data analysis and comparison from domestic and abroad, author believe that the main reasons are four imbalance:①imbalance of the structure of trade growth;②imbalance of Energy, the environment for sustainable development;③imbalance of services development;④imbalance of technological innovation on industry upgrading support. Factors of future constraining:①comparative cost advantages gradually will disappear;②locking their own development path. In this context upgrading of China’s manufacturing industry is inevitable and progressive. But the upgrading process is not conducted in isolation, and it’s a systematic project. Industrial upgrading is affected by the technical capacity and supplying high-level human capital factors such as endogenous factors and the development of produce services, global value chain governance model, policies systems and international trade exogenous factors, and it’s strengthen the power source to upgrade for the interdependence between the elements.Expanding the view of Humphrey and Schmitz on industrial upgrading in four ways and combined with the actual development of Chinese manufacturing, author proposed upgrading of the same product division of the chain, upgrading of product structure of the same industry, upgrading of factor intensity of different industries. Finally proposed innovative mechanisms to upgrade our manufacturing design system through theoretical model and empirical analysis.This paper uses mathematical statistics, empirical research and cross-research methods to analyze upgrading of our manufacturing basic proposition from the perspective of the global value chain. The main innovation is following:Firstly, combined with Humphrey and Schmitz’s, Porter’s, Gereffi’s, and Poon’s views, author discussed many ways to upgrade:①upgrading of the product division of the same chain;②upgrading of product structure of the same industry;③upgrading of different factor intensity of different industries, and these three methods are interrelated upgrade. Combined with our national conditions, exogenous type upgrading path takes upgrading of the product division of the same chain, and endogenous type upgrading path can taken the three methods to upgradeSecondly, as reference to Feenstra and Hanson (1995) model, in this model system variable will be considered, and by deducing the conclusion is that technical level of the developing countries surpass developed countries relatively and systems to improve will bring to positions of the two ends of the value chain extension. Compared with foreign enterprises, traditional industries in our country does not have the advantage, and through the strategy new industries, we can build our lead in the global value chain by technology leading.Thirdly, selecting 31 provinces 8 years of panel datas examines technological innovation and institutional innovation mechanism of China’s manufacturing industry by measuring test. Compared with the existing literature, mainly there are the following advantages:①the different provinces (regions) that may exist unobserved heterogeneity between the different natural and geographical conditions, historical background. Once these heterogeneous are related to independent variables vector and errors, it will lead to bias regression results, and the model will occur endogeneity problem because of the default variable. These heterogeneity in the fixed effects model, were lost the first difference, and together in this study estimated the random effects model allowing a more robust regression results of this paper;②China’s provincial-level fixed effects on panel data analysis can effectively expand the sample size, and thus meet the large sample in statistics on the progressive nature, and the empirical analysis will be more credible.更多还原