产业多样性的理论与实证研究

【作者】 张德常；

【导师】 谢识予；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 数量经济学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 在急剧变化的全球化经济背景下,如何调整与优化产业结构以确保经济可持续发展成为各地区面临的重要课题,产业多样性是产业结构的一个量,因此产业多样性也得到越来越多的关注。然而经济理论着重关注投入增长和效率改进对经济增长的影响,区域经济保持多样化还是专业化的争论虽早已存在,但仍然悬而未决。现有关于产业多样性的研究也没有能够为产业多样化实践提供合理的指导。究其根本,在于对产业多样性自身缺乏足够的认识,产业多样性仍然如同一个黑箱。基于目前的研究现状,本文提出致力于解决的问题：首先,为什么几乎任何地区的产业结构都保持一定水平的产业多样性?不同地区间产业多样性为什么存在明显差异?其次,产业多样性是否有利于经济增长?产业多样性如何作用于经济增长?本文将紧紧围绕这两个方面的问题展开研究,并基于这些问题的研究进行产业多样化策略研究,从而构建一个相对全面的框架。全文具体内容安排如下：第1章为绪论,主要阐述本文研究的问题、研究意义和方法、研究框架与主要创新之处等。第2章为产业多样性的概念与度量,主要是辨析相关概念,归纳产业多样性度量方法和度量我国省区产业多样性。首先分析产业多样性概念的演化,明确产业多样性丰富的内涵。其次归纳总结产业多样性的各种度量方法,分析各种度量方法的特征,其中详细介绍熵指标的特点。最后,基于32个大类及相应163个中类的就业和产值数据,主要运用熵指标度量我国省区的产业多样性,并比较采用不同度量方法和数据得到的不同测度结果。第3章为产业多样性决定的理论分析,主要是理论分析产业多样性存在的微观机理,分析产业多样性的决定因素。首先从区域层面,结合地区生产专业化分析产业多样性存在的微观机理。其次分析产业多样性的决定因素。最后通过模型分析产业多样性如何决定,包括单一地区模型分析和两地区博弈分析。单一地区模型中纳入生产的多样性偏好、规模、运输成本、租金等因素,而两地区博弈模型主要分析贸易与产业多样性之间的关系,能够反映地区间相互作用对产业多样性的影响。第4章为产业多样性决定因素的经验分析,主要是分析产业多样性分布的特征以及实证检验产业多样性的决定因素。首先分析我国省区产业多样性的演变和地区差异,产业多样性的演变和地区差异是各种因素变化和空间分布的作用结果。其次归纳产业多样性分布的典型特征,认识产业多样性分布的规律性。最后基十我国省区数据实证检验产业多样性的决定因素。第5章为产业多样性与经济增长关系研究,主要分析产业多样性对经济增长的作用机制。理解产业多样性对经济增长的作用机制对于制定和实施产业多样化策略异常重要。首先分析产业多样性作用于经济增长的机制,主要从经济稳定、动态外部性和企业家精神三个方面展开研究,其中一方面从理论上分析这些作用机制,另一方面分别进行实证检验。其次基于我国省区数据实证检验产业多样性与经济增长的关系。第6章为产业多样化策略研究,主要提出区域产业多样化能力的概念,论述基于多样化能力视角下的产业多样化策略,以及介绍和分析我国澳门特区的经济适度多元化。在第7章将对全文作出总结和研究展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 Under the rapidly changing global economy, how to adjust industry structure in order to ensure sustainable economic development has became an important task faced by all regions. Industrial diversity is an important aspect of industry structure, so industry diversity has begun to receive increasing attentions. However, economic theories focus on the impact of efficiency improving and input growth on economic growth. Although the debate on whether regional economy should be specialized or diversified has existed long ago, the debate is still unresolved. Existing researches can not provide useful and clear guidance for practice of diversification. The main reason is the lack of adequate understanding of industry diversity itself, industry diversity is still like a black box. Based on the current status of research, this paper presents some questions:Firstly, why almost all regions maintain a certain level of industry diversity? why industry diversity among different regions maybe significantly different?Secondly, whether industry diversity is conducive to economic growth or not, and how diversity contributes to economic growth?This paper will closely focus on these questions, and analyze industry diversification strategy to build a relatively comprehensive framework. This paper is organized as follows:Chapter 1 is an introduction, where we bring out the main issues studied in this paper, the methods of such research framework and major innovations.Chapter 2 is about concept and measurement of industry, the main aim of this chapter is to define concepts, summarize measurement methods of industry diversity and measure industry diversity of regions in China. Firstly, the evolution of the diversity concept will be analyzed in order to define the implication of industry diversity. Secondly, we summarize various measurement methods of industry diversity, and analyze characteristics of various measurement methods, in which we make detailed analysis of entropy index. Lastly, based on data of 32 major industry categories and corresponding 163 categories, we use entropy index to measure the industrial diversity for provinces of China and compare different results of industry diversity.Chapter 3 is about theoretical analysis of determinants of industry diversity, the main aim of this chapter is to analyze theoretical basis for the existence of industry diversity in order to unlock the black box of industry diversity. Firstly, from the regional level, combined with regional specialization of production, we analyze microscopic mechanism for the existence of industry diversity. Secondly, we analyze the determinant factors of industrial diversity. Lastly, we build theoretic models of industry diversity including a single region model and the two regions game model. In single region model, we take into account diversity preferences in production, size, transportation cost, land rent, and so on. In two regions game model, we analyze the relationship between trade and industry diversity.Chapter 4 is empirical analysis of the determinant factors of the industry diversity, the main aim of which is to analyze characteristics of industry diversity distribution and empirically analyze determinant factors of industry diversity. Firstly, we analyze the evolution of industry diversity for provinces of China, and differences of industry diversity among provinces. Secondly, we summarize the typical characteristics of industry diversity distribution. Finally, we make empirical study of determinant factors of industry diversity based on data of these provinces.Chapter 5 is about the relationship between industry diversity and economic growth, the main aim of which is to analyze how industry diversity affects economic growth. Understanding the mechanism is very important for the development and implementation of industry diversification strategy. Firstly, we study the mechanism of how industry diversity affects economic growth. The analysis will be organized into three aspects, which are economic stability, dynamic externality and entrepreneurship. Secondly, we make empirical study of the relationship between economic growth and industry diversity, in which we use the methods of principal component analysis to refine other factors.In Chapter 6, we put forward the concept of regional capacity of industry diversification, discuss industry diversity strategy based on the capability, and introduce moderate economic diversification of Macao Special Administrative Region. In Chapter 7, we make a conclusion for the paper.更多还原