【作者】 曹鑫；

【导师】 范世东；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 载运工具运用工程， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 随着我国国民经济的快速发展和居民生活质量的提高,石油已经成为我国需求最大、增长最快和进口量最大的能源。目前,我国石油进口的运输方式主要是通过海运完成的。石油的水运运输具有运量大、中间环节少、周转快、货物损失少、经济效益和社会效益显著等特点；但是由于石油具有燃烧性、腐蚀性、毒性、污染性和反应性等特性,并且运输量大,在运输过程中,任何一个环节出现问题,都可能引起火灾、爆炸和泄漏等严重事故,造成船毁人亡及对陆域、大气和水域的污染。因此,针对我国油港储运现状,对储运过程进行全面的危险辨识,构建安全评价模型和预警应急系统具有重要意义。本文是在对长江南京流域某大型石化储运企业的安全管理和安全现状的长期调研基础上,结合日常海事监管工作,初步完成了基于油品储运过程的安全性评价和预警应急救援系统的构建工作。论文的研究内容主要包括：(1)总结危险源辨识的组织程序和技术程序,在全面分析油港储运过程存在危险因素的基础上,根据我国危险因素分类标准,对油港安全生产中的危害因素进行挖掘和分析,结合实际调研和日常海事监管工作,提出基于危险区域划分和基于主要事故类型的危险源辨识模型,采用多种辨识方法进行全面、系统、有重点的危险源辨识；(2)在危险源辨识基础上,应用层次结构理论,将储运系统进行全面、系统划分,构建基于油船靠泊作业过程、油库罐区和人员的安全评价模型,在此基础上,采用基于“三维视角”的风险分级综合评价模型对油港储运过程作出整体安全状况判断；(3)构建油港储运预警模型,主要涉及基于预警指标风险等级矩阵的安全预警技术模型和基于事故推演技术、事故后果评价的推演模型；(4)通过回顾我国应急救援管理体制和存在问题,考虑油品储运事故特点、危害范围和实际案例,结合实际调研,提出存在的问题和缺陷；提出油港应急救援体系构建基本原则,借鉴国家相关法律法规、政府应急预案和企业应急救援经验,结合油港储运的特点、危险因素分析、重大危险源辨识和风险评价,提出适合我国油港储运事故应急救援体系框架,并以油港储运溢油事故为例,全面系统阐述应急救援预案的编制；(5)提出应急救援能力概念,明确油港应急救援能力评价的理论意义和实践价值,构建应急救援能力评价的总体思路、体系结构和方法选择,应用德尔菲方法选择和筛选评价指标体系,建立基于序关系分析法的模糊综合应急救援能力评价模型。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid developing of Chinese economy and improving quality of lives, need and import for petroleum has become the largest and fastest-growing source of energy. At present, our country’s oil import is mainly completed by sea. The advantages of the transportation of oil by sea are characterized by the large transportation capacity, the decrease in the turn-over time, the less loss of goods, economic returns, conspicuous social benefits and other notable features. But there are also many great hidden dangers. Because petroleum can cause burning, corrosion, toxicity and pollution, and the large amount in the petroleum transportation, in the process of transportation any accidents in the system would arouse fire, explosion, leaking, and other serious accidents which may result in the destruction of ship, the lost of life and the pollution of earth, atmosphere, water. Therefore, based on the status of our country’s oil port storage and transportation and by a comprehensive identification of the danger, construction the model of safety assessment and early warning system is of great significance.On the base of long-term research of a large petrochemical enterprise security management and security situation which is located in the Yangtze River in Nanjing, the article initially completes risk assessment of oil storage and transportation process and constructs early-warning & emergency rescue system. The research mainly includes:(1)The paper summarizes the organizational procedures and technical procedures of hazard identification, excavates and analyzes risk factors existing in oil storage and transportation according to China Risk Factor Classification, put forward hazard identification model based on partition and major types of accidents combined with practical research and routine marine monitoring, and use a variety of identification methods to comprehensively, systematic identify hazards;(2)By using Hierarchy Theory, oil storage and transportation system is divided into three sections, that is oil tanker berthing operational process, oil bulk and human reliability, and adopts comprehensive risk evaluation based on’three-dimensional perspective’ to determine the overall security situation for the system; (3)The paper constructs early-warning model for oil storage and transportation mainly involved early-warning indicators, risk rating matrix model, accidents deduction technique and accident consequence assessment model;(4)By reviewing problems existing in emergency rescue management system and management mechanism status, the paper proposes the basic principles of oil port Emergency Rescue System aiming at the characteristics, hazardous areas, and practical examples of oil storage and transportation accidents, and puts forward oil storage and transportation emergency rescue system framework based on the relevant state laws and regulations, the Government contingency plans, business emergency rescue experience which is further elaborated by oil spill accidents;(5)The paper bring forward the concept of emergency rescue capabilities, affirm theoretical and practical value of oil port emergency rescue capabilities assessment, and build capacity assessment model by using the theory of Delphi, selection and screening of evaluation index system and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on sequence analysis which is also involved assessment structure, the selection of methods.更多还原