【作者】 李敏；

【导师】 王仁祥；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 产业经济学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 本文以发展经济学、创新经济学、金融学和复杂系统理论为基础,将复杂性、反馈性、时滞性和非线性纳入金融创新与经济增长关联性的研究中,确认两者关联变量、构建系统动态模型,并进行仿真分析,最后结合金融创新与经济增长关联性的特点,构建了金融创新与经济增长良性互动的决策模式。全文分为五大部分：1.系统动态视角的金融创新与经济增长关系的理论基础。包括金融创新与经济增长关系理论梳理、创新与经济增长关系理论梳理以及复杂系统相关理论梳理,本研究为后续金融创新与经济增长关联性的系统动态机理分析奠定理论基础。2.金融创新与经济增长系统及其关系的复杂性特征分析。首先是金融创新与经济增长的复杂系统特征描述,以系统观为出发点,以复杂系统理论为基础,结合金融创新与经济增长特点,重点描述二者在系统结构、运行机制、功能或效应方面的复杂性特征,为进一步的关联性研究埋下伏笔。然后是金融创新与经济增长关联的复杂系统特征分析,综合运用复杂系统理论及其系统动力学方法,结合金融创新与经济增长关联性的相关理论研究成果,以金融创新与经济增长复杂性特征为依托,对金融创新与经济增长关联的复杂性进行理论分析,进一步夯实本论文的理论基石。3.金融创新与经济增长系统关联变量选择与检验。包括金融创新与经济增长系统状态序参量确定、金融创新系统和经济增长系统关联变量确定以及金融创新系统与经济增长系统关联变量的实证检验。实证检验的目的有两个,一个是让数据证明二者的实践关系,另一个是为接下来写出系统动力学仿真方程式提供相关参数的参考依据。4.金融创新与经济增长关联性的系统动力学模型与仿真。遵循系统动力学建模和仿真的主要特点和步骤,依据第2部分对金融创新与经济增长关联机理的分析和第3部分金融创新系统与经济增长系统关联序参量及有关变量的确定,运用系统能够动力学建模和仿真软件Vensim PLE 5.7a,构建金融创新与经济增长关联性的系统动力学模型,用以揭示二者关系的动态复杂性,分析两个系统中有关因素的相互作用关系,然后利用我国现实数据进行系统动力学仿真试验,对演化的结果进行分析,得到相关启示。5.金融创新与经济增长良性互动的决策模式。金融创新与经济增长系统关联的复杂性机理决定了金融创新与经济增长良性互动的决策具有时间上的紧急性、目标上的动态性、过程上的协同性、主体上的自适应性和层次性特点,因而在决策模式设计时必须考虑其相应的原则和功能,在决策模式运行时也必须要注重对决策模式的主体和目标进行定位,并构建和维护决策模式顺利运行的保障机制。本部分的研究是整个论文研究的落脚点,以期为相关政策制定当局提供有意义的参考和建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 This dissertation is based on the development economics, innovation economics, finance and system theory; and the study of the relevance of financial innovation and economic growth concerns the complexity, feedback, time delay and nonlinear phenomena, then confirmed that related variables between financial innovation and economic growth and builds the system dynamic model and simulates. Finally, through combinating the characteristics of relevance of the financial innovation and economic growth, it builds the decision-making model in positive interaction of the financial innovation and economic growth. This dissertation can be divided into five parts:1. System and dynamic view of the theories about relationship between financial innovation and economic growth, including theories about the relationship between financial innovation and economic growth and the relationship between innovation and economic growth, and the theory of complex systems. This study is in order to construct the theoretical basis of the relevance of the financial innovation and economic growth.2. Analysis on financial innovation system, economic growth system and the complexity analysis of the relationship between the financial innovation and economic growth. Firstly, it describes complex system characteristics of the financial innovation and economic growth based on the system concept and the complex systems theory, focusing on describing the complex characteristics of the system structure, operating mechanism, function and effect. Secondly, it analyses the complex nature of the relevance between financial innovation and economic growth, associated with the integrated use of complex system theory, system dynamics method and combined with research results related to financial innovation and economic growth. And it is characterized through complex system on relationship between financial innovation and economic growth for building the theoretical foundation of this dissertation.3. It is the variable selection and inspection about the relevance the financial innovation and economic growth systems, including determining order parameters selection of the financial innovation system, economic growth system, and the relationship between financial innovation system and economic growth system, and the empirical test of the variables of the relevance of them. There are two purposes of the empirical test, the one is to prove the relations between the two systems, and another is to provide the relevant reference parameters for the system dynamics equations next.4. It is the system dynamics model and simulation about the relationship of financial innovation and economic growth. Following the main features and steps of the system dynamics modeling and simulation, it builds correlation of system dynamics model of the financial innovation and economic growth to reveal the relationship between the two dynamic complexity systems. According to the financial innovation and economic growth mechanism analysis in Part 2 and the determination of the variables of financial system and economic growth associated with in Part 3, through the System Dynamic modeling and simulation software:Vensim PLE 5.7a, then by using the related and real data, it simulates and gets the results of the evolution analysis and some implications.5. It is the decision-making model of positive interaction between the financial innovation and economic growth. The complexity mechanism of financial innovation and economic growth decides decision-making model of positive interaction between of financial innovation and economic growth would have those characteristics:urgent, dynamic target, joint process, adaptable and gradable subject. Thus, the decision-making model is designed to obey the corresponding principles and functions of the decision-making model and it need to pay attention to the subject and the target position and to build and maintain the protection mechanism when running the decision-making models. This part is the result of the dissertation to provide meaningful information and recommendations for the relevant policy-making authority.更多还原