【作者】 陈进；

【导师】 吴爱祥；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 采矿工程， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 当前我国铅锌生产与消费的高速增长是经济发展的必然结果,预计未来我国铅锌消费仍将高速增长,产消矛盾还将扩大。目前急需对国内外铅锌市场规律进行研究,分析铅锌工业新形势,并评价铅锌工业可持续发展程度,建立我国铅锌工业可持续发展预警系统。为此,本文开展了如下内容的研究：(1)对国内外铅锌资源和铅锌市场进行了详细地调查,摸清了目前铅锌金属资源储量,估算了铅锌工业资源保证年限,并分析了LME(伦敦金属期货交易所)铅锌价格走势和演化特征,研究了铅锌工业产量变化新趋势。同时调查了国内外再生铅锌金属生产状况,并得出了我国再生金属产业所存在的差距。对我国铅锌工业原料供应、冶炼能力和矿山采选生产能力等进行全面了分析,探讨了我国铅锌工业所存在的问题。(2)构建了铅锌工业市场演化规律的混沌理论框架,对铅锌市场演化特征进行了研究。研究结果显示,铅锌市场价格演化、产量增减和消费量变化具有类周期性,均存在混沌现象。铅锌市场演化规律和特征是：铅市场演化的类周期相对短,变化幅度小,锌市场演化的类周期稍长,变化幅度大,锌市场的演化过程比铅市场复杂。(3)采用混沌神经网络模型对LME铅锌价格进行了预测,用灰色混沌理论建立了铅锌工业产量与消费量的预测模型。预测结果显示：近期LME铅锌价格将有一定的下降；未来世界铅锌金属将出现短缺,且锌金属短缺比铅金属短缺严重；未来国内铅金属生产将出现过剩,而且越来越严重,锌金属生产与消费基本平衡。(4)对我国铅锌金属产量、矿山产量和再生铅锌产量进行了预测。研究结果表明：我国铅精矿将出现严重短缺,锌工业精矿短缺程度比铅工业略好,但精矿资源短缺将会长期存在。(5)研究了我国铅锌工业可持续发展的13个影响因素,采用模糊数学原理分析和预测了1990-2010年我国铅锌工业可持续发展度。研究结果显示,1999年前我国铅锌工业可持续发展度比较差,1999-2006年可持续发展持续向好,但随着我国资源保证程度下降、对国外精矿资源依赖程度增加和冶炼能力的过度扩张,我国铅工业可持续发展度将下降,前景并不乐观。总体上分析,我国锌工业可持续发展程度比铅工业好。(6)首次建立了我国铅锌工业可持续发展预警系统,该系统不仅可对前期铅锌工业发展状况进行比较分析,而且可以对后期发展作出正确的预测,对我国铅锌工业可持续发展具有重要的指导作用。根据云南驰宏锌锗股份公司铅锌资源储量和生产数据,建立了云南驰宏锌锗股份公司可持续发展预警系统,用该系统可评价铅锌企业制定规划的合理性。(7)总结分析了我国铅锌工业市场所存在的问题,根据研究和预测结果,提出了实现我国铅锌工业可持续发展的建议与措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the economical development, it is inevitable that output and consumption of lead-zinc industry in China increase in high speed at present. We can anticipate that consumption of lead-zinc will still increase at great speed, and the contradiction thar output is less than consumption will expand. It is necessary at present in China that the laws and new positions of lead-zinc market to be researched, the degrees of sustainable development of lead-zinc industry to be evaluated, and an alarm system of sustainable development of lead-zinc industry to be established. The main contents of this paper are included as follows.Lead-zinc resources and market in overseas and homeland are researched in detail, such as, lead-zinc resource reserves are found out, the guarantee years of lead-zinc resource are estimated, and the trend of LME(London Metal Exchange) lead-zinc metal price are analyzed. The worldwide conditions of lead-zinc reproduction are researched, the gaps between domestic and overseas lead-zinc industry are obtained. Comparing the throughput of lead-zinc smelt, the capacities of mining and mill run with the supply of lead-zinc raw material, the existent problems of lead-zinc industry are discussed in detail.The laws of lead-zinc market are researched based on chaotic theory. The results show that price evolvement of lead-zinc metal, output increasing or decreasing, consumption change have the character of similar period and occur chaotic phenomena. We obtained the laws and characters in lead-zinc market as follows:the similar period and changing range of price in lead market are less than that of in zinc market, and transforming processes in zinc market are more complex than that of in lead market.The lead-zinc prices in LME market are forecasted with a chaotic neural network model, and the forecasting models of lead-zinc output and consumption are established respectively based on grey-chaos theory. The research results show that lead-zinc prices will drop in the near future, the phenomena that output of lead-zinc metal are less than consumption in the world will occur in the future, and the condition will be more and more serious. In China, lead metal will be surplus in the future, and the condition will be more and more serious, but the equilibrium of zinc metal between output and consumption will in existence.Lead-zinc output, yield in mine and reproducing lead-zinc metal in China are forecasted, and the researching results shows that lead resources will lack severely, although the extent of short in zinc resources will be better than that of in lead resources, but the phenomena of short in resources will be in existence chronically.Thirteen factors influencing the sustainable development of lead-zinc industry in our country are researched, and their SDI (sustainable development index) are analyzed and forecasted with the theory of fuzzy mathematics from 1990 to 2006. The researching results show that the SDI was very low before 1999, and became better and better from 1999 to 2006. Because of declining in the guarantee extents of lead resource, depending on oversea resources and expanding the smelt capacity unduly, the degrees of sustainable development in lead mine will be down after 2006, and its foreground is not very optimistic. Analyzing generally, the SDI of zinc industry is better than that of lead industry. An alarm system of sustainable development in lead-zinc mine is established. The system can not only compare prevenient SDI with present one, but also predicate the SDI in the future. It is very important to sustainable development of lead-zinc mine in our country. According to lead-zinc resource reserves and yield data in Yunnan Chihong stock corp., its alarm system of sustainable development that can evaluate programming of lead-zinc enterprise is put forward.According to the researching and predicting results, by analyzing the problems of lead-zinc mine in our country, a series of suggestions and measurements for sustainable development of lead-zinc industry are put up.更多还原