【作者】 张雪；

【导师】 高阳；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 粮食问题始终是关系我国国民经济发展和全面建设小康社会的重大战略问题,确保粮食安全是关系国计民生的大事。稻谷是我国农作物种植中第一大粮食作物。东南地区作为我国稻谷主产区和主要消费区,其稻谷生产和消费对全国粮食安全具有至关重要的意义。在稻谷产量连续多年下降的新形势下,为确保稻谷市场的稳定和粮食安全,需要建立有效的稻谷宏观监控和检测体系,为平衡稻谷供求关系和保障国家粮食安全决策服务。为此,本文通过集成遥感、GIS技术与统计分析方法,利用稻谷生产遥感信息和区域社会经济信息,提出了产需分析方法和综合预警方法,设计了产需及平衡预警指标体系,在此基础上,综合50多年来的相关数据,深入分析了中国东南地区稻谷产需格局,并据此对东南地区的稻谷产需平衡预警进行了研究。这为东南地区稻谷生产预警提供了充分的依据,为国家进行宏观调控、制定粮食政策和发展粮食生产提供了基础,有利于我国规避粮食风险,保障粮食安全。具体而言,本文的主要工作和创新如下：(1)深入分析了稻谷产需格局、预警研究对象以及体系结构和数据获取来源,以此为基础,提出了产需分析方法和产需平衡预警的方法,并分析了稻谷产需监测指标设计原则,针对稻谷产需监测内容的需要和信息的可获得性,分别设计了稻谷生产、需求和预警监测的指标体系。(2)补充和完善了稻谷数据获取方法,提出通过抽样调查法、时序分析法、因素分析法和遥感估产法来获取区域稻谷产量。着重运用遥感监测技术,提出了稻谷长势监测方法、单产预测方法、种植面积估算方法和总产量的预测与估算方法。同时分析了稻谷需求,并针对口粮需求、饲料用粮、工业用粮、种子用粮和稻谷耗损的不同需求,给出了相应的计算模型,为区域稻谷产需格局分析和平衡预警提供了数据获取的理论基础。(3)在论述了东南地区稻谷生产资源的基础上,深入分析了50多年来东南地区稻谷播种面积、平均单产以及总产量的变化过程、变化幅度和变化趋势,分别提出了稻谷播种面积变化、平均单产变化以及总产量变化的拟合模型,可对东南地区各分区的稻谷播种面积的变化量、平均单产的变化量以及总产量的变化量进行预测；提出了影响东南地区稻谷生产变化的主要因素,并从口粮需求、饲料用粮、工业用粮、种子用粮和稻谷耗损五方面分析了东南地区的稻谷需求以及稻谷产需格局,这些为东南地区稻谷生产预警提供了充分的依据。(4)分析计算了稻谷产需平衡预警指标中的生产波动系数、需求波动系数和自给率波动系数,研究了稻谷产需平衡预警警级的划分,以及每一警级的警情内涵。在此基础上设计了生产波动系数、需求波动系数和自给率波动系数的预警警限,据此得到了近年来东南地区的稻谷产需警情。同时,从稻谷产量、稻谷播种面积和稻谷单产指标三方面,深入分析了稻谷产需短缺的主要警兆,预测了未来几年东南地区的稻谷产量。更多还原

【Abstract】 The rice production and consumption of Southeast China is the majority of China’s, and it is very important for the food security of the whole country. Rice crops are planted in our country’s largest food crops. South-east as China’s main rice-producing areas and the main consumption areas, and its rice production and consumption are on the national food security of vital importance. In recent years, the annual output of rice decreases continually, and this may result in the rice deficient and impact the food supply safety of China. In order to stabilize the rice price in the market and guarantee the yield-demand balance, it is necessary to establish the macro adjusting and monitoring system of rice production and consumption for regional rice produce management and the macro decision-making of food safety.In the study, remote sensing, geographical information system and statistical techniques have been integrated to develop analyzing technology of monitoring and warning rice yield-demand balance and derive annual rice yield-demand data and regional social economic data. The series of annual rice yield and consumption, the pattern and its change have been analyzed and the shortage of rice yield-demand balance has been evaluated in last 58 years. The alarming information of rice plantation area and output per unit has also been derived for each shortage grade in each province or autonomous region.The study has obtained the following conclusions:(1) According to the analysis on rice production and demand patterns, early warning research subjects, as well as architecture and access to sources of data, Production and demand analysis and production-demand equilibrium model of the concept of early warning methodology are proposed, and,the essential condition of rice production, plantation area has the characteristics of fluctuation, and analysis of rice production and demand the design principles of monitoring indicators for rice production and demand to monitor the content of the needs and the availability of information, namely the design of the rice production, the demand for monitoring and early warning indicator system. (2) Seeking approval of a sample survey method, time series analysis, and factor analysis and yield estimation by remote sensing method to obtain the regional rice production bases the complement and improve the rice data acquisition methods. Focus on monitoring the use of remote sensing technology, made of rice growth monitoring methods, yield prediction methods, an area of plant output estimation method and the prediction and estimation methods. At the same time, an analysis of rice demand and the demand for food, feed grain, industrial use of grain, seeds and rice grain depletion of the different needs, give the corresponding calculation model for regional rice production and demand pattern analysis and balanced to provide early warning data to obtain the theoretical basis.(3) On discussing in the south-east rice production resources, in-depth analysis of more than 50 years the southeast region of rice acreage, average yield, as well as changes in production processes, changes in magnitude and trend, respectively, proposed changes in rice acreage, the average yield of change as well as the output of the fitting model change. The district of rice sown area changes in the amount of change in average yield, as well as changes in production volume can be predicted in south-east. The impact of proposed changes in rice production south-east of the main factors, and food demand, feed grain, industrial use of grain, seed grain and rice depletion analysis of five south-east of rice demand and rice production and demand patterns, such as the south-east rice production warning provided sufficient basis.(4) The rice production and demand balance in the production of early warning indicators of volatility coefficient, fluctuations in demand factors and self-sufficiency rate of fluctuation coefficient, studied rice production and demand balance in the division of early warning alarm level, and each class Police Superintendent the connotation are analyzed and calculated. Base on these, the fluctuation coefficient of production, demand fluctuation coefficient and self-sufficiency rate fluctuation coefficient warning alarm limit are designed, which has been in recent years the southeast region of rice production and demand situation police. At the same time, the main warning signs are deeply analyzed by the rice yield, rice area and rice yield of three indicators, the depth analysis of the shortage of rice production and demand, and prediction rice production in south-east of the next few years.更多还原