【作者】 陈维亚；

【导师】 陈治亚； 彭仲仁；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 优先发展城市公共交通是解决城市交通拥堵、城市污染等问题和维持城市可持续发展的主要途径。但是,城市公共交通能否担此大任,除了与政策、规划等有关外,还取决于城市公共交通自身的吸引力。作为增强城市公共交通吸引力的重要手段,提高城市公共交通服务可靠性正得到广泛关注。当前,以自动车辆定位和自动乘客计数(AVL/APC)等为核心的智能公交技术的广泛应用为提高城市公交服务可靠性提供了良好的解决途径。因此,研究基于AVL/APC等智能公交技术的公交服务可靠性问题具有十分重要的理论和实践意义。首先,本文在查阅大量文献和对北美主要公交公司运用AVL/APC等智能公交技术来提高公交服务可靠性实践调研的基础上,总结和提炼出当前公交服务可靠性研究的基本理论框架。在此基础上,建立基于AVL存档数据的公交路线服务可靠性评价和分析体系,并以美国芝加哥公交公司(CTA)20路车的AVL存档数据对20路的公交服务可靠性进行案例分析——运用数据挖掘和统计相结合的方法分析了20路车公交服务“大间隔”的表现范式和产生条件。结果表明,CTA 20路车的“大间隔”传播在一定站段内明显,而“大间隔”表现范式不明显,建议CTA建立服务不可靠预警系统和实时行车诱导机制来实时监控预防不可靠服务的产生。然后,综合考虑乘客需求的波动性和车辆运行时间的随机性以及二者的交互动态关系,同时考虑车辆的承载能力,详细分析了随机条件下的公交路线服务过程。基于AVL/APC数据的可得性,运用基于面向对象数据库(OODB)和离散事件系统(DEVS)的面向对象仿真建模方法建立和实现了灵活通用的固定路线公交服务微观仿真模型。考虑公交服务不可靠性的传播特点,提出了基于实时信息的公交路线服务不可靠预防行车诱导策略,将AVL和APC实时动态信息融入公交路线服务微观仿真模型,建立了基于实时行车诱导的公交路线服务不可靠预防模型。在不同的路段运行时间浮动度和车头时间距容许偏差下,利用本文提出的公交路线服务微观仿真模型对实时行车诱导策略进行了测试和评价。模拟结果显示,实时行车诱导策略在路段运行时间可控度较好的情况下具有明显的效果。考虑公交路线服务的随机环境,运用公交路线服务微观仿真模型,对路线上没有实时调度控制的公交服务进行了超车和不超车的对比分析。模拟结果显示,在给定的线路参数下,随着站次的增长,没有调度干预的超车和不超车都不能阻止服务可靠性的下降,但是超车比不超车更有利于保持车辆到达线路中下游车站的车头时间距的一致性,从而减少乘客在这些车站的平均等待时间。最后,考虑客流需求波动及车辆运行时间随机变动的情况以及公交服务频率与服务可靠性的关系,建立了以乘客候车期望和公交车辆利用率总体最优为目标的公交路线服务频率优化模型。通过系统仿真的方法,用蒙特卡罗方法随机模拟一条高频线路的公交服务,计算得到了给定线路参数下的最优服务频率。算例表明该模型可用来确定高频服务公交线路在随机情况下的发车频率。更多还原

【Abstract】 Giving priority to the development of urban public transit is the main way to solve urban traffic jam, city pollution and maintain the sustainable development of the urban area. However, whether the urban public transit can take this role depends on not only the policy and planning issues but also the attraction of the transit system itself. As a major method to enhance the attraction of urban transit, how to improve transit service reliability is catching world wide concern. Nowadays, the widespread application of the intelligent transit technologies characterized by automatic vehicle location (AVL) and automatic passenger counting (APC) as the core technologies provides a good key to improve urban transit service reliability. Therefore, it is of both extremely theoretical and practical significance to study the transit service reliability issues under the frame of intelligent transit technologies such as AVL and APC.Based on a comprehensive literature review and a wide survey of some transit agencies in major metropolitan areas of North America about their practices in terms of using intelligent transit technologies such as AVL/APC to improve transit service reliability, this dissertation gives a summary and extraction of the basic theory framework of the research of transit service reliability. It establishes a framework of evaluating and analyzing transit service reliability based on archived AVL data. The route 20 of Chicago Transit Authority (CTA) in America is set as a case study of its service reliability. Data mining and statistics are used to analyze the pattern of service gap and the conditions which tend to lead to service gaps. The results show that the gap propagation exists in several segments and stops on route 20, but there are few typical patterns of gap headways. An early warning system to identify conditions that tend to lead to large gaps and a real-time bus running navigation strategy can be used to prevent these gaps.Considering the fluctuation of passenger demand and the stochastic nature of vehicle running time and their interactive dynamic relationship, as well as the vehicle capacity, the bus route service process under the stochastic situation is analyzed in detail. Based on the availability of AVL/APC data, an adaptable and multipurpose micro simulation model of a fixed route bus service is established using object-oriented simulation modeling method characterized by Object-Oriented Database (OODB) and Discrete Event System (DEVS).Considering the unreliability propagation of the transit service, a bus running navigation strategy is developed to prevent bus service unreliability based on real-time information. Building the real-time dynamic AVL/APC information into the micro simulation model of the bus route service, a bus route service unreliability prevention model is developed integrated with the real-time bus running navigation strategy. Using different scenarios of different route segment running time fluctuation and permitted deviation of the headway, the real-time bus running navigation strategy is tested and evaluated in the micro bus route service simulation model. The simulation result shows that, the real-time bus running navigation strategy has good performance under the situation of good control of the route segment running time.Considering the stochastic conditions of the bus route service, the effects of vehicle overtaking and no-overtaking on service reliability in case of no real-time bus operation control are comparatively tested and analyzed in the micro bus route service simulation model. The simulation results show that, given the example bus route parameters, downstream the route, neither bus overtaking nor bus no-overtaking with any bus operation control could stop the service reliability from declining; but bus no-overtaking could keep better headway adherence than bus overtaking does at the stops in the middle and downstream of the route, which leads to fewer average passenger waiting times at these stops.Finally, considering the passenger demand fluctuation and the vehicle running time randomness, as well as the relationship between the transit service frequency and the transit service reliability, a model for determining optimal bus route service frequency is developed. In this model, the expectation of passengers waiting for buses and the efficiency of running vehicles are aimed to achieve combined optimization. Monte-Carlo method is used to simulate the service process of a high frequency bus route and the optimal service frequency of this example route is calculated given the route parameters. The numerical example shows that this model can be used to determine the departure frequency of a bus route with high frequency service.更多还原