【作者】 吴忠才；

【导师】 柳思维；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 现有商圈理论基本都是从微观企业角度出发,但随着城市化进程的加快,城市圈(群)的出现,现有的企业商圈理论不能很好的满足现实需要。文章从中观层面提出城市商圈概念,并对影响城市商圈竞争力的要素进行了深入探讨,具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。本文从商圈吸引力层面对国外文献进行了综述,并从商圈形成机理、商圈布局、商圈拓展、商圈竞争与商圈要素层面,对国内商圈文献进行了系统梳理,在此基础上设计城市商圈研究命题。并提出影响城市商圈竞争力的主要因素是区位要素、规模要素、业态要素、品牌要素,并就此提出了全文研究假设。运用多种研究方法构建模型,测算了各类要素的影响因素及其对城市商圈竞争力的影响程度。城市商圈区位要素是影响城市商圈竞争力的最重要因素。在梳理相关区位理论的基础上,对哈夫修正模型中的“距离二次方反比”进行了再修正,用消费者到商圈的空间距离和该商圈到城市商业中心空间距离的乘积来表示。从而得到消费者在某城市商圈购物的机率与城市商圈规模大小成正比,与达到该商圈距离和该商圈与城市商业中心的距离成反比的结论。影响城市商圈区位条件的因素中,城市文教系统和城市交通系统对城市商圈发展影响最大。城市商圈规模可以从投入和产出两个角度来度量。本文从产出角度选取了批发和零售业总额,从投入角度测度了新增固定资产投资、城市基础设施投入对城市商圈规模的影响,弹性系数分别为1.08和0.84,呈同向关系,且弹性较大。同时还得到了城市人口密度、人均收入和交通条件与社会消费品零售总额之间呈同向关系的结论,弹性系数分别为0.3、0.96和0.84,人均收入对城市商圈的影响是人口密度的3倍。城市商圈规模还与物流业和工农业之间存在密切关系。城市商圈业态目前存在主体功能不清晰、业态结构不合理、业态趋同等现象。运用层次分析法研究了城市商圈业态组合问题,对于城市中心商圈,大规模型业态比中小规模型业态重要,应该布局大型超市、购物中心、百货店等大规模型零售业态,适当搭配中小规模型业态。而在城市郊区或者远离市中心地带,应该布局以中小规模型业态为主体,配以少量的大规模型城市商圈业态。不同区位的城市商圈主体功能存在差异,业态组合要与主体功能相吻合。城市商圈品牌由城市商圈形象、城市商圈口碑、城市商圈布局、城市商圈信誉、城市商圈售后服务等因素组成。通过结构方程模型验证得到布局因素是最重要和关键的,其次为城市商圈信誉。在分析城市商圈四大要素后,采用因子分析法对城市商圈竞争力进行了综合评价,得到了各省会城市商圈竞争力的得分和排序。排前五位的城市分别是上海、北京、广州、重庆、天津,东部沿海地区的城市排位靠前,中西部地区城市排位靠中间和中后的位置,与东、中、西部经济发展水平基本吻合。从合理规划城市商圈布局、完善基础设施建设、优化业态组合、加强城市商圈管理、打造城市商圈品牌五个方面,提出了增强和提升城市商圈竞争力的相关对策。最后研究了城市商圈与区域经济建设的关系,城市商圈与地区国民经济三次产业之间高度相关。运用向量自回归模型得到了城市商圈与区域经济之间存在长期均衡的协整关系,存在区域经济增长到城市商圈发展的单向格兰杰因果关系。为了衡量城市商圈与区域经济之间的短期波动与长期均衡关系,得到了向量误差修正模型两个误差修正项系数为-0.11和-0.05,符合反向修正机制,系数绝对值大小反映了对偏离长期均衡的调整力度。本文创新之处,表现在如下四个方面：第一、明确提出把商圈分为企业商圈与城市商圈两大类,从根本上避免了商圈概念运用混乱的现象。企业商圈主要研究单个零售企业吸引力范围问题,具有微观属性。城市商圈主要研究城市内若干零售企业集聚在一定区域共同吸引顾客的范围问题,具有中观属性。第二、把诸多影响城市商圈竞争力的零散因素,划分为城市商圈区位要素、规模要素、业态要素、品牌要素。关于城市商圈竞争力的这四要素,在现有商圈研究成果中属于创新性系统提出。第三、提出了一个城市商圈区位再修正模型,对哈夫修正模型中的“距离二次方反比”用两个距离乘积来表示。一个距离是消费者到城市商圈的空间距离,另一个距离是该城市商圈到城市商业中心的空间距离,使模型解释力更强。第四、运用多种研究方法分别测度了城市商圈区位、规模、业态、品牌要素各自影响因素的强度。在城市商圈规模与人口、收入关系的研究中,提出了在现阶段我国城市商圈主要靠城市在岗职工平均工资“质”的拉动,而不是主要靠人口密度“量”的拉动,来实现城市商圈快速发展的观点。在城市商圈业态要素研究中,运用层次分析法提出了在城市中心商圈应该布局大型超市、购物中心、百货店等大规模型零售业态,而城市郊区或者远离市中心地带,应该布局中小规模型业态的观点。在城市商圈品牌要素研究中,运用结构方程模型得到了影响城市商圈品牌的关键因素是城市商圈布局的观点。更多还原

【Abstract】 Existing theories of trade area are developed from the angle of micro-enterprise. But with the acceleration of urbanization, the emerging of trade area of city, those existing theories cannot meet practical needs. Based on this, the notion of trade area of city is put forward from a medium perspective and the issues that affect competitiveness of trade area of the city are discussed in this paper. It proves to be a meaningful study in academic and reality.The study is about summary of overseas studies in trade area from the perspective of attractiveness. Furthermore, the study illustrates the domestic literature from the perspective of mechanism of formation, layout, expansion, competition, and essential factors of trade areas. Based on these studies, the issue of urban trade area is addressed in this thesis. And some essential factors, that affect the competitiveness of urban trade area, is put forward. They are the factors of location, scale, brand and kind of business. The hypothesis of this paper is based on these. This paper constructs models on variety methods to estimate the impact of various factors and its influence degree to competitiveness of urban trade area.Location of urban trade area is the most important factor that has great influence on the competitiveness. Based on those related location theories, this paper remodified the "inversely proportional to the square other distance" in Huff modified model, that is, the distance between the customers and trade areas multiplies the distance between the trade area and urban commercial center. So the conclusion is:the probability of consumer shopping in urban trade area and the scale of it are indirect proportion; the distance of consumer to trade area and the distance from trade area to commercial center are in inverse proportion. Cultural education system and transportation system are of the greatest impact on the development of urban trade area.The scale of urban trade area can be measured from two angles, inputs and outputs. From the angle of outputs, the total amount of wholesale and retail trade is measured; in terms of inputs, elastic coefficient of newly increased fixed and inputs of infrastructure to urban trade area are 1.08 and 0.84 respectively, which are in concurrent relationship and the elasticity is comparatively large. So, we get the conclusion that the population density, average wage, communication condition, are in concurrent relationship to total retail sales of consumer goods, which elastic coefficients are 0.3,0.96, and 0.84. The effect of average wage on urban trade area is three times of that of population density. There is also a close relationship between the scale of urban trade area and logistics, industry and agriculture.There are still some problems such as the indistinct of main function, the unreasonable structure and convergence of kind of business. Use AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) to analyze optimum combination of kind of business. The large scale of kind of business is more important than the small one to the central urban trade area. So large supermarkets, shopping malls, and department stores should be located and pair up some small ones.While in suburban trade area, for some remote areas are away from downtown, the small and medium-sized kind of business should be located and pair up the large ones. Different urban trade areas’main function is different, so the combination of different kinds of business should match the main function.The brand of urban trade area consists of series of factors, including the image, public praise, business location, commercial reputation, and after-sale services. According to the structural equation modeling, the business location is of the greatest importance. And the reputation is in the second place.This paper had a comprehensive competitiveness evaluation scored and sorted on trade area of provincial capital through factor analysis, which focus on the analysis of four factors of urban trade area.The top five cities are Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing, Tianjin. The sorting of eastern coastal cities is in the front rank, and those of central and western regions are in the middle and postposition. The results coincide with the economic development of eastern, central and western regions. Five measures are proposed to enhance and upgrade the competitiveness of urban trade area from reasonable planning and layout, improvement of infrastructure construction, optimum combination of kind of busines, strengthening the management and creating brand of urban trade area.Finally, conclusion of the relationship between urban trade area and the development of regional economy is obtained,that is, highly correlated with the three industries. This paper adopts Vector Autoregression Model (VAR) and found that a long-term equilibrium co-integration relationship exists between urban trade area and regional economic development. One-way Granger causality exist between local economic growth and the development of urban trade area. A vector error correction model is put froward in order to measure the relationship of short-term fluctuation and long-term equilibrium between urban trade area and regional economy. Two coefficients of error-correction are-0.11 and-0.05, in line with the reverse correction mechanism. The absolute values of the coefficients reflects the adjustment deviation from long-run equilibrium.The originalities of this study lie in the following aspects:Firstly, it clearly puts forward a point that trade area should be divided into enterprise trade area and urban trade area, which avoids the confusion of application of those definitions. Enterprise trade areas are of micro-property, which mainly focus on the attraction of single retail enterprises. Urban trade areas are of medium-property, which mainly study how the retail enterprises in the same area attract customers.Secondly, many scattered factors that bear influence on the competitiveness of the urban trade area are divided into four elements categories, location factor, scale factor, brand factor, kind of business factor. The classification is the first time to put forward in current studies about urban city area.Thirdly, a location remodified model is proposed. That is, "inversely proportional to the square of the distance" in Huff modified model is replaced by the distance between the customers to trade areas multiplication the distance between the trade area to urban commercial center. So the remodified model has more explanatory power.Fourthly, this paper estimate the impact of various factors, such as location,scale, kind of business, brand, and the intensity of the influence on urban trade area through variety methods. In terms of the study of the relationship between scale of urban trade area and population, income, a originality views is put forward, namely, it is the factor’quality’of average wage of staff and workers, rather than the’quantity’ of population density, that achieve the development of urban trade area. This paper puts forward that some large supermarket, shopping mall, and department stores should be located at central trade area, and small or medium-sized kind of business should be located in suburban trade area. Some small enterprises houl be located in remote areas, which are in suburban areas or far away from the city centers. Through the structural equation modeling (SEM) method during the study on brand of urban trade area, we may conclude that location is the key element among impacts on urban trade area brand.更多还原