【作者】 蒋波；

【导师】 饶育蕾；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 财务综合评价是对公司经营业绩和财务状况进行多方面、多层次的综合分析和评估,它对于提高管理效率、保证债权人的根本利益、加强监管部门的监管都有着十分重要的作用。传统的财务评价体系以应计制财务指标为基础,容易受到管理者利润操纵和粉饰报表的影响,使财务指标丧失了真实性而导致评价失效。本文在借鉴国内外财务评价体系的基础上,充分考虑我国公司的会计准则和所处的现实环境,引入现金流理论、行为金融理论和信号理论,深入分析资产负债表、利润表与现金流量表的勾稽关系,设计了财务真实性评价指标体系,全面、真实地反映公司财务状况,有助于减少公司利润操纵的影响。在财务真实性评价指标体系基础上,通过专家调查法与层次分析法相结合构建了财务真实性指数,以指数的形式直观、简洁的反映出公司财务综合状况,并与其它评价方法进行比较分析和检验,保证了方法设计上的有效性。同时,还分别从公司财务数据和市场价值的角度对财务真实性指数的适用性和有效性进行了检验,研究表明该指数能充分体现公司间综合财务状况的差异,真实反映公司经营业绩和财务风险。然后,运用财务真实性指数对我国制造业上市公司1998-2007年财务状况进行了综合评价,并通过典型案例的剖析对上市公司财务状况进行了动态分析。整体而言,我国上市公司财务状况不容乐观,大部分公司财务状况处于一般水平,公司间财务状况差异较大。之后,基于财务真实性指数中的盈利指标与传统盈利指标进行比较分析,并采用价格模型分别检验了两类指标的价值相关性；在此基础上,采用现金流对利润的保障程度作为衡量公司盈利质量的标准,对我国制造业上市公司2003-2007年的盈余质量状况进行分析和评价,结果表明我国上市公司的盈利质量较低,大部分公司的收益缺乏现金流支撑。最后,运用财务真实性指数构建了公司动态财务预警系统,通过统计分析的方法确定了财务困境公司的阀值,及时警示公司存在的财务危机,并通过典型案例分析对动态财务预警系统进行了应用研究,有助于管理者从中长期角度进行风险管理和控制。公司财务真实性指数的建立,有助于鞭策公司管理者正确认识自身的经营情况和财务风险,进而提高公司质量和竞争力；有助于债权人和投资者准确评估公司价值,保证债权人的根本利益,帮助投资者制定相应的投资决策；有助于政府监管部门及时掌握上市公司的财务状况和变化趋势,有效发挥监管部门对于上市公司的监管作用,促进我国上市公司和资本市场的持续健康发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Financial comprehensive appraisal assess business performance and financial situation of company in many aspects and multi-level comprehensive, it has very important function for improving efficiency of management, guaranteeing the creditor’s fundamental interests, department enhancing supervision, promoting the sound development of capital markets. Traditional financial appraise system with financial index of accrual basis receives the influence that administrator profit handle and gloss over the report form, makes financial index lose the authenticity and results in appraising losing efficiency.On the basis of drawing lessons from the foreign financial appraisal system, this text fully considers the accounting criterion of company in our country and the realistic environment, introduces cash flow theory, behavioral finance theory and signal theory, analyses in depth the colluding and checking relation of balance sheet, profit table and cash flow statement, constructs financial authenticity evaluation index system, facilitates to reduce the influence that company’s profit handles.On this basis, the paper constructs financial authenticity index through expert’s investigation method and analytic hierarch process, reflects the comprehensive state of company’s finance in the form of index. And the paper carries on comparative analysis and examine with other appraisal methods, guarantees the validity on the method design. Moreover, The paper examines the applicability and validity of financial authenticity index in terms of real management state and company’s value. Studies have suggested financial authenticity index can fully reflect the difference of comprehensive financial situation among the companies, reflect company’s business performance and financial risk truly.Then the paper uses financial authenticity index to carry on comprehensive appraisal to the financial situation of listed company of manufacturing industry from 1998 to 2007 in our country, and has carried on dynamic research about company’s financial situation through the analysis of typical case. The overall financial situation of listed companies are not optimistic. The financial situation of interfirm is in large difference, most of the company’s financial situation is at a common level.Later, the text adopts price model and examines the information validity of two kinds of indexes separately through comparing profit index and cash flow index. On this basis, the paper adopts the guarantee intensity to the profit of cash flow as the measure of profit quality, appraises to profit quality state of listed company of manufacturing industry in our country in 2003-2007. Studies have suggested China’s listed companies have lower earnings quality, the majority of company’s earnings support the lack of cash flow.Finally, the text uses financial authenticity index to construct the early warning system of dynamic finance, confirms the threshold of financial predicament company through method of statistical analysis. There is a timely warning to the company’s financial crisis. And the paper carries on the application study to the early warning system of finance through typical case analysis, which will help managers to carry out risk management and control medium and long term.The setting-up of financial authenticity index facilitates urging on company administrator correct understanding the operations and financial risks, then improves company’s quality and competitive power. It facilitates creditor and investor assessing financial situation and value of company accurately, guarantees creditor’s fundamental interests, helps investors to make corresponding investment decision. It facilitate the supervision department of government grasping the financial situation and variation tendency of listed company in time, gives supervision department effectively to play the role of supervision of listed company, promotes the lasting sound development of listed company and capital market in our country.更多还原