【作者】 王涌；

【导师】 高阳；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 第三代移动通信(3G)项目是通信产业发展到寡头垄断阶段的必然产物,同时也是进一步调整中国通信市场格局的重要契机。因此,3G项目对于各个通信运营商都具有巨大的价值,其价值一方面决定了通信运营商如何投资3G,另一方面投资策略也反过来影响3G项目的价值,两者互相促进,互为因果。在理论界,传统的投资决策理论仅仅从投资的收益成本对比来决定是否投资,不能充分考虑3G项目的不确定性,而狭义的实物期权理论考虑了不确定性却忽视了策略互动对项目价值的影响。期权博弈理论的产生与发展,有效的完善了上述对不确定性处理的方法,其充分考虑了项目的不确定性和策略互动的共同作用,对于项目评价具有重要的指导意义。由于3G项目具有期权博弈理论所假设的条件特征,运用期权博弈理论分析3G项目更加真实的反映了3G项目的价值。本文在期权博弈理论的框架下,分析了3G项目的管理柔性价值与策略互动价值相互作用的均衡结果。本文具体围绕期权博弈过程,从三个维度对3G项目进行分析：实物期权价值的确定；期权博弈均衡的形成；技术进步与经营成本导致的均衡偏离。以此为基础构建了3G投资项目三维期权博弈模型。最后,通过分析均衡结果对3G投资策略进行了政策建议。本文的主要观点和研究成果如下：(1)选择了一个崭新的视角分析我国即将发展的3G项目投资策略。论文不同于其他文献仅使用NPV或实物期权等单一方法解决3G项目投资决策,而是将博弈理论与实物期权理论结合起来分析不确定性导致的管理柔性价值和策略互动价值共同作用达到的均衡结果。期权博弈理论从一个崭新的角度分析了3G投资,这是一个全新的尝试。(2)系统地梳理和归纳第三代移动通信项目涉及的四大理论基础：市场规制理论,传统投资理论,实物期权理论和期权博弈理论。总结了各个理论的主要观点和核心思想,理清了投资决策理论的发展方向,把握了投资决策理论需要着力的重点,提出了3G投资理论研究的重点是市场结构,现金流价值,不确定性,策略互动四个方面。(3)系统地分析了我国3G投资项目的市场结构以及市场结构的演化过程和运行特点。在总结归纳中国通信市场结构的调整过程中,提出了不同市场格局下,市场结构的运行效率各不相同的观察结果。而根据调整的最终结果看,完全垄断和过度竞争都会导致市场的低效率。本文认为重组后的三寡头垄断市场结构对3G的发展是最有效的。(4)分析认为垄断与竞争的共同作用是中国通信市场结构发展的动力,市场结构对通信企业行为产生重要的影响。3G所在的移动市场结构具有期权博弈的特性：不可逆性,不确定性,扩展期权性,策略互动性。(5)构建了3G投资项目三维期权博弈模型。该模型将不确定性,策略互动性以及均衡偏离性三个影响因素有机的融合在三维期权博弈模型的三个维度之中进行阐述。提出了在不考虑策略互动的前提下,3G项目的不确定性导致了在位者和后进入者的期权价值和进入阈值不同。后进入者的进入阈值更小一些,反而在位者的期权价值更大一些。在第二个维度中,模型考虑了竞争的影响。提出了由于竞争的存在,在位者和后进入者的期权价值都受到了侵蚀；在位者充当了追随者的角色,而后进入者充当了领导者的角色。在第三个维度中,提出了由于技术的发展,均衡结果会降低领导者的进入阈值,而增大跟随者的进入阈值。同时,经营成本的增加则也会降低领导者的进入阈值,而增大跟随者的进入的阈值。(6)对3G项目的三维期权博弈模型进行进一步的敏感性分析和算例测算。通过分析不确定性对期权价值的影响,得出模型的五个参数变量对期权价值的具体作用,并相应的给出策略建议。分析指出,技术进步和经营成本影响了在位者和后进入者的投资阈值。合理掌控技术的发展速度与优化经营成本对于控制本企业的均衡价值以及制约对手竞争策略都具有重要意义。(7)建议通信博弈者——运营商所采取的各种不同的策略组合。在位者中国移动建议采取激进式强跟随者投资策略,该策略指在足够大的市场冲击下,大范围地增加3G投资,在已有的个人用户市场全面出击；在位者中国联通建议采用渔网型弱跟随者战略,该策略更加适合运营商控制3G运营成本,提高3G期权价值。中国电信是移动通信市场上的后进入者,虽然与原C网运营的协调存在一定时滞性。由于其固网用户利润的快速下滑,其投资3G项目的动机很强。因此,在重点城市和行业快速发展3G,加大3G的覆盖面,采取孤岛型领导者策略抢先进入市场成为中国电信最优的选择。更多还原

【Abstract】 As one of the most prosperous industries to promote the economic development, telecom industry has been charactered as high risk and high profit. Due to step up the competition and promote the living standard, the telecom industry has been recombined for many times. The development of 3G provides the opportunity for another competition of the telecom market. The merger worked on 2008 brings the new competition market for the 3G investment. The 3G is related to the benefit of the people and the long-term development of the 3G operators.The traditional theory just judge the investment depent on the ratio between the profit and cost without the uncentaintry. The basic theory of the Real Option has considered of the uncertainty of the projects but neglected the interaction between the competitors. With the development of the Option Games, the real option and the interaction could be combined in the value of the project. The value of the option game could be the most real of the project. The theory of the option games has the special meaning to the projects evaluation.The 3G has the features of the option games. The option games theory will give the real answer about the 3G’s value. The equilibrium between the option and the interaction will arrive a point. The mobile communication operators’goal is to achieve the maximum of the profit. On the equilibrium of the option and interaction, the oprators will adjust the strategy of the investment and the marketing. The paper gives the option games model of the 3G project. The model concludes three parts: the real option; the option games; the equilibrium with interaction from the technology advanced and the operation cost. The equilibrium will concludes some advices for the 3G project. The key ideas and main research results as follows:(1) There is a new view on the 3G investment strategy that is the option games theory. The theory is different from the traditional NPV or the real option theory. It is combined the real option theory and the games. The equilibrium value is mixed from the soft management value and the interaction strategies value. The option game value is more close to the real and is more significant to the 3G investment. This is a totally fresh approach.(2) To summarize the basical theory which is about the 3G investment strategy:the government regulation economics, the traditional investment theory, the real option theory, the real option theory, the paper give the main idea and the key view about the above theories and the route about the investment decision theory development. It is the the key point to be focused on that is the cash flow, the uncertainty, the interaction strategies and the market constructure.(3) The paper analysis the construction and the features about the mobile telecommunication market. After the combing out the route about the mobile telecommunication market change, the pater takes the conclution that is the different effect under the different market constructions and the three oligarch monopolization is the most efficient for the 3G investment. The paper points the market background has decided the option game features which is the unreversible, the uncertainty, the complex option, and the interaction strategies.(4) The paper gives the three-dimensional option game model to analysises the 3G investment strategies. The model include the uncertainty and the interaction and the affect from the technology development. Under the first-dimensional model-the real option theory, the entry market threshold and the option value are different from the mobile telecommucation operators and the followers. The followers will be advanced the entry threshold, but the the option value of the mobile operators is bigger. In the second-dimensional model, the affect of the competition reduce the option value and make the mobile operators to be the market followers. In the third-dimensional model, the techenology advanced and the operation cost will make a change on the 3G investment equilibrium. As the techenology advanced, the market followers will make the entry threshold ahead and the market leaders will put off the entry threshold.(5) As the facors sensitivity theory, the three-dimensional model will be advanced developed. In the model, the parameters is affected to some 3G investment strategy. They are included the profit, the investment cost, the interest rate, the fluctuate about the capital and the investment period. The operators could control the different parameters to maximum their project value. On the other hand, they could control the technology advanced and the operation cost to change the competitors stragegies.(6)The pater take the three-dimensional options game model of 3G project for for the further sensitivity analysis and calculation. For the options value of the uncertainty. There are five parameters in the model will impact the final equilibrium. The conclution pointed out that the advanced technology and the operation cost will impact the investment threshold of the leader and the follower. The reasonable development of of technology and the optimization of reasonable operating costs are very significant to the investment strategies.(7) The paper give three different investment strategies of the 3G for the telecom operators:island-based strategy, net-based strategy and the radical-based strategy. As the "Been" in the mobile telecom market,China Mobile should take the "strong-follower radical-based strategy". Increase their investment to 3G project on the condition of the enough market demand. For another "Been" in the mobile telecom market, China Unicom should take the "weak-follower net-based strategy". It is more suited for it to control costs and increase the value of 3G options. As the "new player" in the mobile telecom market, China Telecom is acquisition of China Unicom’s C net, but the coordination with the C net will take a certain period. There is time-delay. However, due to its fixed-line users decline in profits, the motive of the the entering the 3G market is more stronger. The feather of the 3G project is the data services. It’s the demand of the Group. Therefore, the choice of 3G industry development and the "leader island-based strategy" are the China Telecom’s best stragegy.更多还原