【作者】 房世峰；

【导师】 刘志辉； Keith J. Beven；

【作者基本信息】 新疆大学 ， 自然地理学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 开展融雪径流预报研究的意义不言而喻,但是受制于融雪水文过程中广泛存在且复杂的不确定性、观测实验条件的匮乏、以及研究基础的薄弱,迄今为止对于融雪径流预报的研究工作尚处于起步阶段,对其不确定性的研究世界范围内也近乎空白。本文瞄准分布式融雪径流预报的关键技术、方法以及融雪水文预报中的不确定性问题这两个关键科学问题,以地处新疆天山北坡昌吉州的军塘湖流域作为典型研究区,基于“3S”技术、实验室模拟、野外观测实验、计算机建模以及现代数理方法等方法与技术手段,对新疆融雪径流预报及其不确定性问题展开了较为系统和深入的系列研究。本文开展的主要研究内容及结论包括：一是开展了融雪径流预报的基本理论与方法研究；二是开展了系列积雪冻融过程的模拟实验研究,为融雪模型的构建及其参数率定提供基础；三是基于典型研究区近年来的观测实验以及相应的实验室模拟实验,开展了“温度指数法”融雪模型以及“能量平衡法”融雪模型的对比研究,初步构建了面向新疆的分布式融雪径流模型；四是基于大气-陆面模式的耦合,开展了模型参数率定及分布式数据处理等方面的研究；五是融雪水文过程及融雪径流模型中的不确定性研究；六是融雪模型参数率定和预报不确定性的量度标准以及可靠性分析研究；七是融雪水文不确定性评估的理论和方法研究。融雪径流预报以及不确定性研究既立足于新疆区域水资源管理以及防灾减灾的社会需求,也是现今国际水文学界的研究热点和前沿科学问题,故此本文的研究起点位于国际先列水平,主要的创新点包括两个方面：一是基于大气-陆面模式耦合、“3S”技术以及室内外模拟实验与观测,建立了面向新疆的分布式融雪径流模型,其中首次对融雪期温度指数法融雪模型中的“度日因子”展开了探讨,大气模式与遥感等多源数据驱动分布式融雪模型进行融雪径流预报乃是未来水文预报的发展方向；二是首次对融雪水文过程及融雪径流预报中的不确定性及其研究方法与理论开展了较为系统、深入的研究,此项工作在国内外尚属首次。更多还原

【Abstract】 Monitoring of snow along with simulation and forecasting of snowmelt has become the research focuses in both climate change science and hydrology. But researches in snowmelt prediction are yet at the initial phase, especially rare in uncertainty studies, reasons of which are widespread uncertainties in snowmelt process, lack of observed experimental conditions, and weak research infrastructure.This paper aims at two cardinal scientific issues - key techniques and methods in distributed snowmelt runoff forecasting and uncertainties in snowmelt hydrological prediction, to systematically and deeply address the prediction of Xinjiang snowmelt floods and their uncertainties. The Juntanghu Basin, which located in the Changji State in the north slope of Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang, was choosed to be the typical study area, applied "3S" technologies (GIS, RS and GPS), laboratory simulation, field observation experiments, computer modeling and other modern mathematical and technical means, and carried out a large number of field observations and experimental data collections as well as laboratory simulation and analysis of the physical process of the snowmelt.Major contents of studies and conclusions in this paper are as follows:First, basic theories and methods for snowmelt runoff forecasting are discussed in this paper. Second, a series of simulations of snow freezing and thawing process were carried out, to build the snowmelt model and to provide basis for its parameters calibration. Third, it takes research on construction of the distributed snowmelt runoff model, and a Distributed Snowmelt Runoff Model was initially constructed for Xinjiang area. Fourth, researches based on the atmosphere - land surface coupling mode combination with conducting the model parameter calibration and distributed data-input are completed. Fifth, research of the uncertainty focused on the process of snowmelt and snowmelt runoff hydrological model is another important part of this paper. Sixth, measurement standards of prediction uncertainty and parameters calibration of the snowmelt model, as well as reliability analysis, are on the table for systematic discussion. Seventh, it launches research works on the theory and method of the uncertainties assessment of the snowmelt hydrological process and snowmelt models.The research on the snowmelt runoff forecasting and its uncertainty, which is based on the social needs of the regional water resources management and the disaster prevention and mitigation in Xinjiang, is one of the forefront research focus and scientific issues of international hydrology science, in view of this, this study is the first series of international standards, the main innovations include two aspects:First of all, based on the atmosphere - land surface coupling modes, "3S" technologies, and indoor and outdoor simulation experiments and observations, a distributed snowmelt runoff model is set up for Xinjiang. Combining with the outputs of atmospheric modes, multi-source data such as remote sensing data and basic geographic data, were used to drive the distributed snowmelt runoff model and forecast snowmelt runoff, absolutely, this is the direction of the hydrological forecasting in the future.The second part of innovative work is that, it takes embedded and systematic discussion on uncertainty of the snowmelt hydrological processes and snowmelt runoff forecasting, as well as the relevant theories and research methods of them. Systemic research on the uncertainty of snowmelt is the first time and it’s among the forefront in the world.更多还原