【作者】 寇炳恩；

【导师】 牛东晓；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学（河北） ， 技术经济及管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 发电项目具有技术密集和资金密集的属性,建设一个火力发电厂需要耗费大量的财力、人力和物力。项目一旦建成就要持续数十年的运营期,即使客观环境和自身状况发生较大变化亦无法实施转产。因此,电力项目不仅存在着建设期风险,更由于外部条件的不断变化而存在着较大的经营期风险,能否建成一个与时代要求相适应的发电项目是政府管理部门和各投资主体实施有效管理和决策的关键。开展火电建设项目绿色和谐后评价,既是投资方和政府相关部门的迫切愿望,更为今后的项目开发、投资、建设决策及管理积累经验,并为指导投资方向提供理论依据。提出了绿色和谐后评价概念。结合中国电力市场改革特点和宏观经济环境,对中国火电项目绿色和谐后评价背景和意义进行阐述。结合相关的火电厂后评价准则和现有火电厂工程项目的研究成果,分析绿色和谐建设对于火电工程项目后评价的意义,提出建立火电工程项目绿色和谐建设后评价指标体系的基本原则和思路。提出了绿色和谐后评价指标体系。普通火电工程项目的综合评价,不能反映火电工程给社会带来的绿色和谐效益。本文通过从节能降耗、资源综合利用、控制污染物排放等角度,构建了绿色评价指标体系;通过项目内部的和谐――人与人的和谐、人与设备的和谐、人与环境的和谐、劳资关系的和谐、项目自身经济性的和谐,以及项目与外部的和谐――项目与社会的和谐、项目与自然环境的和谐、项目与经济环境的和谐以及项目与市场环境的和谐等角度建立和谐评价指标体系。提出了基于“功能驱动”和“差异驱动”分层递阶模糊综合评价模型。特征值法和熵权法是两种分别基于“功能驱动”和“差异驱动”的权重确定方法,“递阶模型”与“模糊综合评价”经过有效结合,本文构建了基于“功能驱动”和“差异驱动”组合权分层递阶模糊综合评价模型,评价结果显示评价方法适应本文提出的评价系统,结合了主观定权和客观定权的优点不仅具有公开透明性,还在一定的程度上保证了继承性。提出了基于隐马尔科夫预测模型和时间序列乘法模型的优选组合预测模型,并用来对后评价指标体系中需要预测的指标进行预测,得到了满意的预测效果。以河南三门峡电厂2×600MW火电项目为案例,进行绿色和谐综合评价,并针对评价结果,说明成效,分析问题,分别对绿色和谐各个方面提出针对性建议,以作参考和被更广泛的借鉴。更多还原

【Abstract】 As power projects are both technology-intensive and capital-intensive, the construction of a thermal power plant requires massive financial, human and material resources. Once completed, they have to keep on operation for decades and will not be able to transfer to other businesses even if significant changes occurred in the objective environment and its own state. As a result, power projects are not only put at risk during construction period, they are also largely exposed to risks during operation period due to constant changes of external conditions. Whether a power project adapted to the demands of times can be built up is the key to effective management and decision-making for government administration departments and various investment subjects. It is the urgent desire of both investors and relevant government institutions to carry out green and harmonious post-assessment for thermal power project, which furthermore gathers experience for future project development, investment, construction decision-making and management and even provides theoretical basis for guiding investment orientation.The concept of green and harmonious post-assessment concept is put forward. Combing the characteristics of power market reform and macroeconomic environment in China, this paper elaborates the background and significance of green and harmonious post-assessment for thermal power project in China. Investigating relevant thermal power plant post-assessment criteria as well as currently available research findings of thermal power projects, the significance of green and harmonious construction to thermal power project post-assessment is analyzed and the basic principles and ideas for establishing green and harmonious post-assessment index system of thermal power project construction is advanced.The index system of green and harmonious assessment is brought up. The ordinary comprehensive assessment for thermal power projects can not reflect the green and harmonious benefits the thermal power project brought to the community. This paper builds the green index system from the aspects of energy saving, comprehensive utilization of resources and pollutant control and etc.; it builds the harmonious assessment index system through the angles of internal harmony of project, namely harmony between human, harmony between human and equipment, harmony between human and environment, harmony between labor and management, harmony of project intrinsic economic efficiency, as well as harmony between project and external surroundings, namely harmony between project and society, harmony between project and natural environment, harmony between project and economic environment and harmony between project and market environment.This paper proposed a hierarchical fuzzy comprehensive assessment model based on "feature-driven" and "difference-driven" combined weight. Eigenvalue method and entropy weight method are based on "feature-driven" and "difference-driven" approach respectively to determine the weights. With a structure design of "hierarchical model" and "fuzzy comprehensive assessment", this paper constructs a hierarchical fuzzy comprehensive assessment model based on the "Function Driver" and "difference-driven" combination weights. The assessment results shows that this assessment method adapts to the assessment system proposed in this paper, which combines the advantages of both subjective weight and objective weight, thus possessing an open and transparent nature and to a certain extent, ensures the inheritability.The preferred combination forecasting model based on hidden Markov models and time series multiplicative is proposed in this paper, which is adopted to forecast indicators in need of prediction in post-assessment system and satisfactory forecasting results are attained.The 2×600MW thermal power project in Sanmenxia, Henan, China is taken as a case for green and harmonious comprehensive assessment. Based on the assessment result, effectiveness is shown, problems are analyzed and suggestions are put forward concerning various aspects of green and harmony for more extensive reference.更多还原