【作者】 方春阳；

【导师】 李文兴；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 产业经济， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 水电项目开发具有很强的区域作用和区域经济特征,这是由于水电项目除了具有发电功能外,还具有防洪、灌溉、供水、环保、交通等社会效益所决定的,因此开发水电项目不仅要评价它的电力功能和效益,还要关注它的社会效益特性,结合区域经济发展进行综合性评价,关注它对区域经济发展的促进作用。水电开发相关产业比较多,以水电开发为“极核”能够在区域形成协调发展的产业聚集,有助于带动区域经济建设、改善基础设施,对区域经济有很好的拉动作用；水电项目集一次能源和二次能源于一身,可以自成系统,其低廉和稳定的能源成本能够提高区域经济的竞争力。水电开发又具有高度的资金密集性,建设周期较长等特点,如果开发过慢、过小就会造成资源浪费,如果开发过早、过快又会在造成电力供给过剩的同时带来区域经济发展的不协调。本文通过对我国西南地区的云南、贵州、四川三省二十世纪九十年代的大型水电项目与三省经济发展之间关系的定量分析,说明水电项目对区域经济发展的贡献不仅仅是提供电力,更在于它的综合效益及对区域经济发展的拉动作用。研究的重点不是单个水电项目的开发与区域经济发展的关系研究,而是将各省区域内的水电开发整体与区域经济发展的关系作为研究对象。运用实证分析和规范分析,从理论层面分析水电开发和区域经济协调发展影响因素和关系,研究水电项目开发和运行对区域经济发展的影响,揭示水电项目开发与区域经济发展的内在联系和规律。论文采用理论分析和实证分析相结合的方法,辅之以指标评价体系、宏观模型和定量计算等手段,探讨水电开发与区域经济发展的依赖关系和对社会发展的影响,并对水电开发的经济功能和社会功能进行全面的、系统的研究。关于水电开发与区域经济关系,以前的研究都是孤立的论述某一水电项目开发的经济效益和社会效益,本文明确提出大型水电项目对区域经济发展具有重要的作用,水电开发要与区域经济发展相协调,统筹发展,在水电资源区域集聚与水电开发的相关产业有利于区域经济发展。经过分析论证发现,水电资源开发对经济发展的贡献,非电作用大于电力的作用,综合效益大于电力效益。本文提出了水电开发极核论。水电开发相关联的行业较多,持续开发有利于聚积推动区域发展需要的内在动力,成为区域经济发展的带动性因素。积极开发水电将在区域形成很好的产业聚集效应,带动区域相关行业协调发展。水电资源开发要适时、适度,建立了水电开发与区域协调发展的宏观协调模型,证明水电资源开发既要注重发展速度,更要注重协调发展,发展速度过快或过慢都不利于经济的协调发展。本文建立了水电站项目社会效益和综合功能的评价模型指标体系和水能资源统筹规划综合开发的技术经济方法。水电项目要放在区域发展的大背景中分析,进行综合评价。目前关于水电项目开发的经济性主要是以水电站的个案研究为主,或者研究电站的设计优化以降低造价,或者从电力系统出发研究水电站的合理电价,或者研究单个水电站开发对区域经济发展的贡献。本文提出以水电集群为基础系统分析某一区域水电投资对经济影响的定量关系,并将水电项目电力以外的综合功能纳入区域经济发展研究之中,更具有普遍性和指导性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Hydropower projects have strong regional functions and regional economic characteristics. This lies in the fact that apart from the function of generating electricity, hydropower projects have the social effects such as flood prevention, irrigation, water supply, environmental protection and communication. Threfore, when exploiting hydropower projects, we have to not only evaluate its function and economic benefit, but also keep an eye on their social value, and make a comprehensive evaluation by integrating the regional economic development. In addition, we need to pay attention to their promotion on the development of regional economy.There are many industries related to hydropower exploitation. Hydropower exploitation oriented in "polar nucleus" can form an industry conglomeration of promoting regional coordinating development, helps to bring along the development of regional economy, improves the infrastructure, and pushes forward the development of regional economy. As a combination of primary and secondary energy, hydropower can form a system of its own, with cheap and stable cost which can enhance the competitiveness of regional economy.Hydropower exploitation characterizes in capital intensiveness and long construction cycle. Slow and small-scale development of hydropower will lead to waste of resources. However, fast and large-scale development will make the supply of electricity surplus and the development of regional economy unbalanced.The article makes a quantitative analysis on the correlation of economic development of large-scale hydropower projects in the southwest area as Yunnan, Guizhou, and Sichuan provinces in 1990s, to show that hydropower project can bring about comprehensive benefits and push forward the development of regional economy, apart from its contribution of generating electric power.The study does not mainly focus on the relationship between the development of a specific hydropower project and regional economy, but on the relationship of the overall development of the hydropowers in various provinces and the regional economy. With demonstration and criterion analysis, we find out the decisive factors and the relationship between hydropower exploitation and coordinating development of regional economy from the theoretical level, and reveal the inner relationship between hydropower exploitation, the development of regional economy and the correlative rules. By integrating theoretical analysis with demonstration analysis supplemented with index evaluation system, macro-model and quantitative calculation, the article explores the correlation between hydropower exploitation, the development of regional economy and their social impacts. It also makes comprehensive and systematic study on the economic and social functions of hydropower projects.In regard to the relationship between hydropower exploitation and the regional economy, most previous studies focus on the economic and social value of a specific hydropower project. This article takes an explicit view that large-scale hydropower projects play a vital role in the development of regional economy, hydropower exploitation should be in coordination with the development of regional economy which should be taken as a whole, and that it is advantageous to the development of regional economy to congregate industries related to hydropower exploitation in the hydropower resources region.From the analysis, it is easy to find that in respect to the construction of hydro resources, the non-electricity fuction is greater than electric function and that the comprehensive value is greater than that of electricity.This article proposes the theory of polar nucleus of hydropower exploitation. There are many industries related to hydropower exploitation, the sustainable development of the industries help to accumulate the intrinsic power and push the regional development, thus promoting the development of regional economy. Various stages of hydropower exploitation can form the domino effect in congregating the industries related to hydropower and bring about the coordinating development in this area.The idea on hydropower exploitation must be at the right moment and moderate. The establishment of macroscopic model of the coordinating development between hydropower exploitation and regional economy demonstrates that we need to pay attention to both the development speed and the coordination of development, and that excessive speed or slow speed development goes against the coordinating development of economy.This article has established an appraisal model on the social value and comprehensive function of the hydro power station and tech-economical method of overall plan on development of water resources. At present most of the studies are mainly concerned with the case study on the economic benefit of a specific hydropower project, on the optimization of the design of a power station to reduce the cost, on the reasonable electric price from the electricity system, or on the contribution of a specific hydropower to the development of regional economy. This article proposes that we analyze the quantitative relations of the influence of the investment of hydropower in an area on regional economy, and takes not only electricity but also other functions into consideration, which is of more universal and guiding functions.更多还原