【作者】 王永明；

【导师】 周磊山；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 天有不测风云,人类经常面临着一种极端方式的考验：或者暴雨倾盆,泽国一片；或者地震海啸,房倒屋塌……近年来,大自然的这种非常态现象更是频繁地出现,无论是汶川大地震,还是莫拉克台风,都对人类的生命和财产安全构成了极大的危害；此外,一些人为灾害也使人类猝不及防、深受其害,例如恐怖袭击、核物质泄漏……面对众多的非常态事件,人类就必须以非常态的手段去应对,建立一套应对灾害的应急机制和理论体系,居安思危、未雨绸缪。交通运输系统是灾害应急框架中的重要组成部分,是救援和疏散的生命线,其表现至关重要。本文研究的就是非常态事件影响下的交通组织与交通流仿真问题,为紧急情况下的快速救援和疏散提供理论支撑,为紧急情况下的路段疏导提供仿真依据。论文从宏观和微观两个层次对非常态事件影响下的交通系统进行了研究：首先借助动态交通流分配理论,探索非常态事件影响下的交通组织问题；其次对道路上的扰动因子和堵塞传播进行了微观仿真研究。研究工作主要可以归纳为以下几个方面：(1)首先对“非常态事件”进行了定义。此外,探讨了非常态事件对交通系统的影响,主要体现在对交通需求的影响和对交通网络的影响两个方面。还分析了非常态事件影响下的交通组织规划应满足系统优化原则(Wordrop第二原则)。在研究非常态事件影响下应急预案制定流程的基础上,探讨了交通组织方案的“规划——实施——修订”的互动过程。(2)设计了非常态事件影响下的交通组织方案生成模型与算法。非常态事件影响下,交通需求具有非常态特征,论文首先对非常态的交通需求进行了分类研究,在此基础之上,设计了交通组织方案的规划流程；根据交通组织方案的规划流程,设计了一系列流程节点所需模型和算法(包括路网能力评估模型和路网调整算法),为非常态事件影响下的交通组织方案规划提供了理论保障。(3)基于案例分析的非常态交通组织方案规划。针对非常态事件影响下的交通组织方案生成模型和算法,设计了算例进行验证分析。交通组织方案的规划过程包括了路网和需求的参数化处理、路网能力评估、路网结构调整等多个环节,每个环节均给出了详细演化过程,最后顺利求解得出路网调整方案、救援调度方案和疏散撤离方案,三者集成可获取非常态事件影响下的交通组织方案。(4)扰动因素影响下的道路系统安全模拟。非常态事件影响下,驾驶者的性格差异表现显著,本论文在对驾驶者进行性格归纳的基础上,建立了基于驾驶者性格差异的元胞自动机(CA)模型,并利用该模型有效地仿真了超速行为对交通流扰动的影响,为交通管理部门的政策制定提供了一定的理论和数据支撑。(5)意外事件所致堵塞的传播与消散研究。在非常态事件的影响下,路段上极易发生意外事件,意外事件所致堵塞的传播规律对交通组织方案的修订至关重要,论文基于元胞自动机交通流模型,有效模拟了意外事件下的侵犯性驾驶行为,建立了CACF模型,运用CACF模型能够较好地模拟出路段上意外事件所致拥堵在交通流中的传播过程,并定性地研究了常用交通控制手段对交通堵塞的消散效率。更多还原

【Abstract】 Something unexpected may happen any time. Natural or man-made emergencies have always been a major concern to humanity and a threat to lives and property. Many commonly natural emergencies include hurricanes, earthquakes, and floods. Man-made ones include leakage of nuclear material, terrorist attacks and so on. Although we can do little to avoid disaster, there are ways to prepare emergency actions to reduce their threat.Traffic and transportation system is one of the most important parts in the emergency infrastructure. Its accessibility and mobility can directly affect the level of success in dealing with emergency accidents. Evacuation of people to safe locations, transportation of emergency material to the vital sites (e.g. nuclear plants, chemical plants and so on) all depend on the traffic system. This paper studies the traffic organization planning and traffic flow simulation under the influence of major public emergencies, supplies the theory and technology actions for the evacuation of people and disaster relief.This paper studies the traffic system under emergency accidents from macro-level and micro-level:firstly, the traffic organization planning is studied based on the model of dynamic network traffic flow; then the disturbance factors and congestion’s propagation on road are simulated by models of road traffic flow. The main contents of the dissertation are summarized as follows:(1) Firstly, the"Major Public Emergencies (hereinafter referred to as the MPE)" is detailedly defined. Then its influence on the traffic system is studied which includes two parts:for traffic demand and for traffic network. The traffic organization planning should meet the principle of system optimization (Wordrop’s second principle) under the influence of major public emergencies. Based on the implement process of emergencies plan, the process of "development, implement,improvement" for traffic organization planning is studied.(2) The models and arithmetics for traffic action’s generation under emergency accidents are proposed. This paper firstly analyses the characteristics of traffic demand, then designs the program flow for traffic action’s generation. Lastly, a set of models and arithmetics are proposed for key nodes of the program flow.(3) Case studies. A case is designed for Authentication of the models and arithmetics proposed before. The solution of case includes a number of links, e.g. parameter processing of the road network and traffic demand, capacity assessment of road network, structural adjustment of road network based on control action and so on. Lastly, the traffic action under emergency incidents can be generated.(4) The road system’s safety simulation under disturbance factors. The drivers’ Personality differences will displayed significantly. This paper classified the typical characters, then proposed the cellular automaton (CA) model based drivers’Personality differences and simulates the speeding’s disturbance for traffic flow. The simulation will help the traffic management organization to improve policies.(5) Studies on road congestion’s propagation and dissipation. Based on the emergency incidents, the traffic accidents become more than usual. This paper takes the rules of lane-changing as breakthrough point, and proposed a new CA model by which we can simulate the congestion’s propagation. The dissipation efficiency of Common Traffic Control Methods can be also studied by the model.更多还原