【作者】 崔奇峰；

【导师】 周曙东；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 在世界贸易组织(WTO)多哈回合谈判受阻后,全球主要经济体加快了双边或区域性自由贸易协定的谈判进程。顺应世界经济发展的潮流,中国也加快了区域经济合作的步伐。2002年11月4日,中国与东盟10国的领导人在柬埔寨首都金边签署了《中国—东盟全面经济合作框架协议》,目标是实现货物贸易和服务贸易的自由化,创造出透明、自由和便利的投资环境,拓展经济合作领域,计划在2010年将中国—东盟自由贸易区基本建成。2004年11月29日,中国与东盟10国签署了中国第一个真正意义上的自贸协定《货物贸易协议》和《争端解决机制协议》,确定了货物贸易降税方式、原产地规则、贸易救济措施等内容,中国—东盟自由贸易区进入了实质性建设阶段。该自贸区在2010年建成后,将是世界上人口最多的自贸区,也是发展中国家间最大的自由贸易区。它的建立,将促进中国与东盟各国的经济贸易快速发展,改变贸易伙伴国的进出口和净福利,进而影响整个世界的进出口贸易以及整体福利水平。为此,本文从中国与东盟的贸易现状出发,利用UNCOMTRADE及GTAP数据库数据,研究中国和东盟自由贸易区建立的经济影响。全文主要内容和基本结论如下：首先,分析了中国和东盟双边贸易额的变动情况。从1997年到2007年,中国与东盟双边贸易额以年均22.50%的速度递增,如此高的增长速度,在当今世界贸易中并不多见。其中,东盟10国中的菲律宾、马来西亚和文莱是对中国贸易增长速度最快的三个国家。尽管如此,中国对东盟却一直处于贸易逆差状态,并且逆差逐年扩大,在双边贸易中处于比较劣势,印度尼西亚、马来西亚、泰国是中国对东盟贸易的主要逆差国,而越南、柬埔寨、缅甸、老挝是中国对东盟贸易的主要顺差国。其次,分析了中国与东盟贸易额占双边对外贸易额比重的变化。分析显示：中国与东盟贸易额占中国对外贸易额的比重和占东盟对外贸易额的比重都在不断上升,中国与东盟两地区间贸易联系日益紧密,在彼此的对外贸易领域中起着越来越重要的作用。但是相对于东盟对中国的商品需求,中国消费市场对东盟的商品需求更为旺盛。第三,分析了中国和东盟双边贸易结构的变化。分析显示：双边贸易结构正在由以初级产品、劳动密集型产品为主向以资本和技术密集型产品为主转移,尽管中国与东盟间初级产品、劳动密集型产品及资本和技术密集型产品的贸易额都在逐年增加,可是初级产品、劳动密集型产品在进出口贸易中所占比重不断下降,而资本与技术密集型产品所占比重不断增长,并占据主导地位。第四,基于UNCOMTRADE中SITC分类数据,研究了中国与东盟的贸易竞争性和互补性。中国和东盟处于相似的经济发展阶段,但拥有不同的自然资源禀赋和产业优势,产品的国际竞争力也存在很大差别。显示性比较优势指数的分析表明：东盟在初级产品方面具有较强的比较优势和国际竞争力,中国则处于比较劣势地位,且有恶化的趋势。不过中国在制成品方面具有比较优势,尤其是劳动密集型产品比较优势显著；在资本与技术密集型产品方面,中国比较劣势也在日益减弱,国际竞争力在不断增强,这是中国产业升级的一个良好体现,而东盟,尤其是新加坡和马来西亚在技术密集型产品上具有显著的比较优势。整体来看,中国和东盟在SITC分类的10类产品中有4类是竞争关系,6类是互补关系,从产品类别比例来看,以互补为主。不过从出口产品相似度指数值来看,中国和东盟向世界市场出口的商品存有很大的相似性,两个地区在世界市场上的竞争也是越来越激烈。即便如此,双边贸易关系在整体上还是以互补为主。第五,应用全球贸易分析模型,对中国和东盟建立自由贸易区带来的经济影响进行分析。长期来看,中国和东盟国家在既竞争又互补的区域贸易一体化过程中共享着自贸区建立、关税削减所带来的巨大的贸易创造收益。这势必会造成周边国家贸易转移的损失,对这些国家的生产、消费和贸易等领域造成负面影响。也就是说,中国—东盟自由贸易区的建立,将会给自由贸易区域内成员、其他国家和地区以及全球带来重大的经济影响。GTAP模拟结果显示：相对于中国和东盟不建立自由贸易区,中国—东盟自由贸易区的建成将显著的增加各成员国的GDP、居民家庭收入及社会福利,改变成员国进出口商品的结构,进而带来生产结构的改变；对于成员国以外的国家和地区,将遭受由中国—东盟自由贸易区建立而带来的进出口贸易额下降、社会福利减少等经济损失,其中日本、韩国和北美自由贸易区福利受损严重；对于全球经济,将从自贸区的建立中得到进出口贸易额的提升及社会福利的增加,这得益于中国—东盟自由贸易区建立带来的成员国福利的大幅增加,这种增加大于由非成员国带来的福利减少第六,针对以上研究内容和结论,本文认为中国要想更快地促进对外贸易的发展,应当根据比较优势原理,生产本国有国际比较优势的产品,或者生产与东盟相比相对劣势较小的产品；积极调整产业结构,增强产品竞争力；还要继续深化同东盟国家互补领域的合作,如农业、能源、服务业等；并且中国应当积极参与并推动与其他国家和地区,尤其是发达国家和地区经济一体化的进程。更多还原

【Abstract】 After the disruption of Doha Round negotiations of World Trade Organization (WTO), the major economies are accelerating the negotiation of bilateral or regional free trade agreement. Conforming to the trend of world economic development, China has accelerated the pace of regional economic cooperation and signed the "China-ASEAN Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation" with 10 ASEAN countries in Phnom Penh, Cambodia on November 4,2002 in order to achieve liberalization of trade in goods and services and create transparent, free and convenient cooperation environment. China-ASEAN free trade area (CAFTA) was planed to basically establish in 2010."Protocol for Trade in Goods" and "Dispute Settlement Mechanism Agreement", signed between China and 10 ASEAN countries on November 29,2004, determined the way of tariff reduction in goods trade, the rules of origin, trade remedies and so on, which means CAFTA has entered into a comprehensive and substantial construction phase. CAFTA will be not only the world’s most populous FTA, but also the largest free trade area of developing countries after its completion in 2010. It would greatly facilitate the economic development in China and ASEAN, change import-export and net benefits of trading partners, and thus change the world’s well-being and trade. In this paper, the economic impact of the establishment of CAFTA is analyzed, using the UNCOMTRADE and GTAP data. The main contents and basic findings of this paper are as follows:First of all, the change of trade volume between China and ASEAN is analyzed. In recent years, bilateral trade between China and ASEAN grows sustainably and rapidly at an average annual rate of 22.50 percent from 1997 to 2007-such a high growth rate is rare in today’s world. And Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei in 10 ASEAN members are the fastest-growing trade partners of China. Nevertheless, the deficit between China and ASEAN is expanding year by year and China is at a relatively inferior position in bilateral trade. And Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand are the main deficit countries to China, while Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar and Laos are China’s trade surplus states.Secondly, this paper analyses the change of proportion of bilateral trade value to foreign trade value of China and ASEAN. It shows that the proportions are all rising from 1997 to 2007. The China-ASEAN trade relationship is becoming increasingly close and playing an increasingly important role in the field of foreign trade each other. However, compared to ASEAN’s demand for Chinese goods, the need for ASEAN’s commodities from China’s consume market is more exuberant.Third, the change of trade structure between China and ASEAN is showed in this paper. Bilateral trade structure is changing from primary products, labor-intensive products to the capital and technology-intensive products. Just as showed in this analysis, in spite of the trade value of primary products, labor-intensive products, capital and technology-intensive products between China and ASEAN are increasing year by year, the share of primary products, labor-intensive products in the import and export is declining, while the share of capital and technology-intensive products continues to grow and is at dominant position.Fourth, The trade competition and complementary between China and ASEAN is researched by UNCOMTRADE data divided according to SITC. Although China and ASEAN are at similar level of development, they have different endowments of natural resources, industrial advantages and international competition of products. Analysis of RCA shows that:primary products in ASEAN have more comparative advantage and international competitiveness, while these in China are disadvantageous and experience a worsening trend. Manufactures in China have a comparative advantage, particularly for labor-intensive products; while the comparative disadvantage of capital and technology-intensive products in China is shrinking and international competitiveness is growing, which is a good reflection of industrial upgrading in China. Technology-intensive products in ASEAN, especially Singapore and Malaysia have significantly comparative advantage. Overall, there are 4 competitive categories of products and 6 complementary ones in 10 classifications of SITC between China and ASEAN-Proportion of complementary types is more than that of competitive ones. However, the similarity index of export products shows that there are a lot of similarities in goods that China and ASEAN export to world market, which means more competitive between two regions in the world market. Overall, the main trade relation between China and ASEAN is complementary.Fifth, this paper discusses economic effects of the establishment of CAFTA by GTAP.China and ASEAN compete in process of regional trade integration and share enormous trade creation brought by tariff reductions of CAFTA, which will inevitably lead to the loss of trade diversion of surrounding countries and the negative impact of production, consumption, trade and other economic areas in these countries. In other words, CAFTA will bring significantly economic impacts to the members of CAFTA, trade partners, as well as the whole world. GTAP simulation results show that:compared with the benchmark program, by 2010, CAFTA will obviously increase GDP, household income and social welfare in the members, change the structure of import and export and adjust their commodity production structure. While the import and export, social welfare in the countries and regions outside CAFTA will decline, especially those in Japan, South Korea and NAFTA is seriously damaged. Overall, CAFTA is playing an active pole in global economy-enhancing import and export and social welfare.Sixth, according to the above contents and conclusions, some suggestions are given:China should produce the goods with international comparative advantages or relatively smaller disadvantage compared with ASEAN, in accordance with the principle of comparative advantage, to adjust the industrial structure, enhance the competitiveness of products and promote faster development of foreign trade. China should continue its cooperation with ASEAN in complementary fields, such as agriculture, energy, services and so on. And China also should actively participate in and promote regional economic integration with other countries and regions, particularly with developed countries.更多还原