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农业区域协调评价的理论与方法研究

Research Ontheory and Methods for Evaluation of Agri-regional Coordination

【作者】 罗其友

【导师】 唐华俊;

【作者基本信息】 中国农业科学院 , 农业区域发展, 2010, 博士

【摘要】 我国地域辽阔,地区间发展极不平衡,统筹区域协调发展是落实科学发展观、建设和谐社会的重大国家战略。开展农业区域协调评价研究,对于引导农业区域分工,优化农业空间布局,发挥区域比较优势,提升农业整体配置效率,统筹推进我国区域现代农业与全面小康社会建设具有十分重要的理论和现实意义。本文在界定农业区域协调发展概念的基础上,建立了农业区域协调发展的机制模型和评价方法,进行了我国农业区域的划分和农业区域的协调性评价,探讨了我国不同农业区域的主导功能定位和制度变革方向。研究的主要结果和结论如下:首先,建立了规模报酬递增条件下两地区一般均衡模型。分析结果表明:区域间农民的收入差距的变化方向不是确定的,差距可能增大,也可能缩小。随着分工模式变化,农业区域差距呈现波浪式的变化。影响演化路径的是地区的交易效率等条件。政府调控通过影响交易效率等相关参数变化,可以影响农业区域之间的协调程度。第二,以农业的农产品供给、就业和生存保障、文化传承和观光休闲以及生态调节等功能指标的聚类结果为基础,同时考虑各项功能的空间尺度特征和重要程度,以及农业功能实现的制约因素的空间差异,综合确定农业区域界限。本文将全国划分为4个一级农业区9个二级农业区。第三,构建了由4个指标组、12个指标构成的农业区域协调发展评价指标体系,采用层次分析法与主成分分析法相结合的方法确定权重,定量评价1995-2008年我国农业区域协调性变化过程。测算结果表明:(1)我国四大区域的农业区域协调度呈先下降后上升的趋势,总协调度从1995年的0.5142降到2000年的0.448,之后上升到2008年的0.5141。(2)四大区域间的各单项协调性指标变化规律不同,其中“产业协调性”和“制度协调性”一直保持在较高的水平,“资源协调性”和“社会协调性”呈现先降后升趋势。第四,分析确立了我国不同农业区域的主导功能配置方向。(1)东部区是以生态调节、观光休闲为主导功能,同时承担国家级部分重要农产品的供给、就业与生活保障功能;(2)中部区是以承担国家级主要大宗农产品供给为主导功能,同时还有显著的生态调节功能和就业与文化传承等功能;(3)西部区是以承担国家级部分农产品供给、就业和生活保障和文化传承为主导功能,同时具有重要生态调节功能;(4)青藏区是以农业文化传承为主导功能,同时具有提供区内部分农产品供给和就业与生活保障功能以及重要生态调节功能。第五,提出了促进我国农业区域协调的公共政策建议。(1)推进新农村建设和公共服务空间均等化;(2)增加中央财政支农资金中青藏和中西部地区的比例;(3)实施不同农业主导功能区域的差别化支持政策;(4)完善和实施不同农业主导功能区域绩效考核体系。

【Abstract】 China has vast territory as well as unbalanced regional development. Co-ordinate regional development is a major national strategy to implement the scientific development concept and build a harmonious society. Evaluation of regional coordination for agriculture research is of great theoretical and practical significance to guide the division of agricultural areas, optimization of agricultural space layout, play the comparative advantages, enhance the overall competitiveness of agriculture, and coordinate development of modern agriculture in China region and all-round well-off society.This paper defines the concept of regional development of agriculture. After the establishment of agricultural development mechanism model of regional coordination and evaluation rules, the paper carried out the division of China’s agricultural regions and the evaluation of coordination of agricultural regions. Then the leading function of different agricultural regions and the direction of institutional change were discussed. The main findings and conclusions are as follows:First of all, in the general equilibrium model with increasing returns, the change of regional income gap between farmers is not determined. It may widen, may also be reduced. As the pattern of division varies, regional disparities in agriculture change as waves. It is the transaction efficiency that affects the evolutionary path. By influencing the efficiency of the transaction and other related parameters, government control can influence the level of coordination between the agricultural areas.Second, The primer clustering results were from indexes of the supply of agricultural products to agriculture, employment and life security, cultural heritage and tourism and leisure and ecological. Then the delineation of boundaries of agricultural areas was determined based on the scale characters of these functions and their importance and the spatial differences of the constraints to realize the functions. The whole Nation is divided into 4 districts and 9 sub districts.Third, the paper set up an index system for evaluation with four sets of indicators and 12 original indicators. The AHP and the principal component analysis are combined to determine weights. The results showed that:(1) in the past 14 years, China’s regional coordination degree in agriculture showed an upward trend after the first drop. The total coordination degree down from 0.5142 in 1995 to 0.448 in 2000, and then rising to 0.5141 in 2008; (2) 1995-2008, different coordination indicators of the four regions have different variation. "Environmental harmony" and "industrial harmony" remained at a relatively high level. "Resources harmony "and"social harmony" first decreased, and then increased.Fourth, the article studies how to conduct the space allocation based on regional coordinated development of agriculture. The results as follows:(1) Eastern District, focuses on eco-regulation, tourism and leisure-oriented functions; it also bear some of the important national supply of agricultural products, employment and life support functions; (2) Central District, is a major commitment to the national supply of staple agricultural products Along with significant ecological regulation functions and features such as employment and cultural heritage; (3) Western District, is a national commitment to the supply of some agricultural products, employment and livelihood security and cultural heritage, also has important ecological adjustment function; (4) Qinghai-Tibet area is dominated by agriculture and cultural heritage function. It also provides the region with some agricultural employment and livelihood security of supply and important ecological and regulatory functions.Fifth, the paper proposes the public policies to promote the coordination of agriculture regions. (1) Promote the new rural construction, and equalities of public goods among regions; (2) increasing the central government fund for agriculture in the proportion of the Qinghai-Tibet and the central and western regions; (3) actively support the agricultural lead functional areas; (4) improve the performance appraisal system for difference functional area.

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