【作者】 杨永坤；

【导师】 章力建； 蔡典雄；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业科学院 ， 农业资源与环境经济学， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 针对我国黄河流域农业立体污染日益严峻问题,本论文首先从黄河流域农业立体污染现状及特征研究入手,采取文献调查、实地调查、系统分析、定量与定性相结合分析等方法,在此基础上按流域污染特征进行系统分区,通过应用环境价值、技术价值、生态学、循环经济等理论,从立体、系统的角度分析研究黄河流域农业立体污染问题,利用系统动力学方法,动态跟踪系统各个变量在不同的发展模式下的变化,构建黄河流域农业立体污染系统模型,并进行模型仿真;其次选择黄河流域宁夏银川平原引黄灌区作为分析案例,进行可靠性分析,并从循环经济角度选取指标对黄河流域农业立体污染综合治理模式进行系统评价,确立系统模型在研究区域的适用性;最后在模型验证的基础上,利用层次分析法对5种污染防治情景模式进行评价与预测分析,提出了黄河流域不同农业立体污染类型区相应最佳综合防治模式,,并对黄河流域各分区的农业立体污染防治技术模式、防治重点及关键措施提出建议。论文研究取得了一下主要结论:1、首次利用系统动力学方法构建的防治农业立体污染系统仿真模型与系统评价方法可靠。仿真技术建立的黄河流域农业立体污染综合防治技术模式在银川平原引黄灌区案例区实地验证结果表明:2001-2004年农业立体污染防治系统模型分析结果与案例区实测结果基本符合,最大相对误差<9.5%,最小误差<1%,说明系统模式所选量化参数和评价指标合理,动力学模型可以在区域上应用,研究方法可为我国其他区域农业立体污染综合防治技术模式优化提供较准确的量化参考依据和选择最佳发展模式的方法提供参考。2、黄河流域农业污染问题必须从系统、立体角度认识和防治。研究结果表明:黄河流域农业立体污染特征明显,若对黄河流域当前的发展模式不加干涉,2020年,地表水中总氮量、大气中氮氧化物含量及农产品中硝酸盐含量将分别比2006年的数值增加117.60%,16.52%和100.07%,说明单一方面研究已经远远不能有效解决农业污染问题,只有采取水体-土壤-生物-大气立体化的生态系统综合管理和污染防治对策,才能从根本上解决黄河流域农业立体污染问题。3、黄河流域农业立体污染采取综合防治技术模式效果显著。研究表明:与当前发展模式不加干涉的无为模式相比,采取综合治理情景技术模式,到2020年,地表水中总氮量、大气中氮氧化物含量及农产品中硝酸盐含量将分别降低87.01%、27.70%、74.36%,而土壤中氮含量及粮食产量将分别增加53.27%、88.07%。从几种情景技术模式对比分析来看,综合治理技术模式的效果最为显著,是今后黄河流域农业立体污染综合防治的理想模式,值得在黄河流域大力推广。4、推荐的黄河流域农业立体污染综合防治技术模式具有合理性。银川平原引黄灌区案例不同情景技术模式的循环经济水平对比分析结果表明:采取推荐的综合治理模式,到2020年银川平原引黄灌区农业立体污染循环经济水平将比2006年提高28.59%,综合治理技术模式对该区域循环经济水平的影响效果最为突出,说明黄河流域农业立体污染综合防治技术建议模式具有一定的实用性。更多还原

【Abstract】 According to the problem of Agriculture Tri-dimension Pollution in Yellow River Basin areas becoming increasingly severe, firstly, the paper studies from the situation and feature of Agriculture Tri-dimension Pollution in Yellow River Basin areas, and divides it into several regions according to basin’s pollution feature by adopting the method of searching documents , research, systems analysis, quantitative and qualitative analysis and so on, and analyzes the problem of Agriculture Tri-dimension Pollution in Yellow River Basin areas from the view of tri-dimension and system by use of the theory of Environmental value, Technology Value, Ecology, Circular economy , uses System Dynamics to track dynamically the change in the future of the various variables in different modes and constructs the system mode of agricultural tri-dimension pollution in Yellow River Basin, and simulates the system; Secondly, the paper takes Yinchuan Plain in Ningxia irrigated by Yellow River as example and analyzes the model whether it is reliable, evaluates the system of agricultural tri-dimension pollution under Integrated Management Mode from the perspective of circular economy, and establishes the applicability of system model in study area; Finally, on basis of model verification, evaluates and forecasts four scenario mode of prevention and cure of pollution by use of Analytic Hierarchy Process, builds the corresponding best integrated controlling mode according to different types of Agriculture Tri-dimension Pollution in Yellow River Basin areas, and put forward to the technical mode and key measures respectively for different region in Yellow River Basin areas. The paper makes the following main conclusions:(a) Simulation model of controlling agriculture tri-dimension pollution and the method of system evaluation constructed by the application of System Dynamics is reliable. The result verified by the case of technical mode constructed by simulation in Yinchuan Plain in Ningxia irrigated by Yellow River shows that: the analysis results get from system model of controlling agriculture tri-dimension are consistent to measured results in case area, Maximum relative error is less than 9.5%, Minimum error is less than 1%, which shows that system model parameters and quantitative evaluation of selected indicators is reasonable, the model can be used in areas, the research method provides accurate quantitative reference for optimization and choosing the best development mode of system for other areas in our country.(b)We should understand and control agricultural pollution in Yellow River Basin areas from the perspective of system and tri-dimension. The study result shows that, the feature of agriculture tri-dimension pollution in Yellow River Basin Areas is clear, If we do nothing for the current mode of development in Yellow River Basin areas, the total nitrogen content in surface water, nitrogen oxide content in atmosphere and nitrate content in agricultural products will add 117.60,16.52 and 100.07 percent respectively in 2020. The unilateral study on water, soil and atmosphere in Yellow River Basin is far from solving agricultural pollution effectively, only adopting countermeasures of integrated ecosystem management, prevention and cure agricultural pollution, can we solve fundamentally the problem of Agriculture Tri-dimension Pollution in Yellow River Basin Areas.(c) The effect of adopting integrated management mode to prevent and cure the problem of Agriculture Tri-dimension Pollution in Yellow River Area is distinguished. The study result shows that, compared with the mode of do nothing for the current mode of development, after adopting the mode of integrated management, the total nitrogen content in surface water, nitrogen oxide content in atmosphere and nitrate content in agricultural products will reduce 87.01, 27.70 and 74.36 percent respectively in 2020, while nitrogen content in soil and food production will add 53.27 and 88.07 percent respectively. Through the contrastive analysis between several technical mode, we can find that the effect of integrated management mode is prominent, which is the ideal mode for prevention and cure Agriculture Tri-dimension Pollution in Yellow River in future and deserves to be vigorously promoted in Yellow River Basin Areas.(d)The technical mode recommended by the paper for integrated prevention and cure of Agriculture Tri-dimension Pollution in Yellow River Basin Areas is reasonable. the result of comparison with the level of circular economy of Yin Chuan plain irrigated by the Yellow River under several technical modes shows that, after adopting the mode of integrated management, the level of circular economy will be added 28.59 percent in 2020,compared with that in 2006, integrated management mode is most prominent for making influence on the level of circular economy of this area, which shows that the technical mode for prevention and cure of Agriculture Tri-dimension Pollution in Yellow River Basin Area is practical to some extent.更多还原