【作者】 史君卿；

【导师】 吴敬学；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业科学院 ， 农业经济管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 粮食是关系国计民生的重要战略物资,近几年粮食连续丰收,供需基本平衡,但随着将来人口的快速增长和耕地的减少,我国的粮食供需有可能出现较大的缺口,提高粮食产量是目前我国亟待解决的问题。从长远来看,我国耕地面积的增加有限,只有通过提高粮食单产才能满足这种需求。影响粮食单产增长的诸多因素大概可以归纳为三类,一是要素投入,二是技术进步,三是技术效率。现阶段靠要素投入来提高产量的潜力有限,技术进步在短时间难以有所突破,因此,研究我国粮食作物尤其是在我国粮食产量中占相当比重的玉米和小麦的技术效率及其影响因素,对于提高我国粮食单产水平,具有重要的意义。本文利用随机前沿生产函数模型(Battese和Coelli,1995),对改革开放30年来玉米和小麦这两大主要粮食作物的技术效率及其影响因素进行深入分析,探寻我国主要粮食作物生产技术效率的变化趋势,同时对不同地区之间粮食作物的技术效率差异进行了分析,寻找我国地区间生产技术效率的发展变化规律。另外,结合对河南省周口市小麦生产的实地入户调查资料,分析了周口市最近两年(2008年和2009年)小麦生产技术效率的变化情况及影响因素,在定量分析的基础上,探讨影响我国主要粮食作物技术效率的因素及其提高技术效率的方法。通过对玉米和小麦技术效率和生产弹性的分析,发现:1.我国改革开放30年来,玉米和小麦的生产技术效率分别为86%和76%,技术效率提高的潜力分别为14%和24%。2.玉米生产的技术效率呈现出波动中不断下降的趋势,而小麦生产的技术效率呈现出波动中不断上升的趋势。3.各地区玉米和小麦的技术效率存在着显著的差别,主产区的技术效率高于非主产区的技术效率。另外,在玉米生产中,技术效率最高和最低的地区分别是东北和西部地区;在小麦生产中,技术效率最高和最低的地区分别是东部和东北地区。4.玉米和小麦投入的产出弹性均小于1,其中,玉米投入的产出弹性基本上呈逐年上升趋势,而小麦投入的产出弹性基本上呈逐年下降趋势。5.玉米单产水平的提高主要来自于技术进步;小麦单产水平的提高主要来自于技术进步和技术效率的提高。通过对玉米和小麦技术效率影响因素的分析,发现:在玉米生产中,人均农作物播种面积、有效灌溉比例与技术效率呈正相关,而灾害率、人均GDP和时间趋势变量与技术效率呈负相关。在小麦生产中,有效灌溉比例、人均GDP和时间趋势变量与技术效率呈正相关,而人均播种面积和灾害率与技术效率呈负相关。在对玉米和小麦两大粮食作物技术效率的历史发展轨迹进行梳理的基础上,本文根据河南省周口市入户调查资料,对最近两年周口市小麦生产技术效率进行了分析,发现:1.周口市小麦生产技术效率较高,平均技术效率为83%,同时,不同县城和乡镇的技术效率存在明显的差异。2.周口市小麦投入的产出弹性之和大于1,其中土地的产出弹性为1.0193。表明周口市小麦生产总体水平处于投入规模报酬递增状态。3.在小麦生产技术效率的影响因素中,务农比例、小麦是否是主要种植品种和灾害率是影响小麦技术效率的重要因素,而户主性别、受教育年限、小麦出售比例和家庭年收入则对小麦生产技术效率的影响较微弱。更多还原

【Abstract】 Grain is an important strategic materials concerned with national interests and people’s livelihood. China has boasted a big corn crop for several consecutive years, and achieved basic equilibrium of supply and demand. However, with the rapid growth of population and decrease of arable lands, it is very likely to cause a greater gap between grain supply and demand. Raising grain production becomes a crucial problem faced by China. In the long run, it is quite limited to increase arable lands. The only way to solve the problem lies in boosting the per unit area yield of grain. There are three sorts of factors which influence per unit area yield of grain: the first is input of resources, the second is technical progress and the third is technical efficiency. On current stage, it is restricted to increase input of resources. Furthermore, it is difficult to make a breakthrough in technical progress in short period. Therefore, technical efficiency as well as its influencing factors are the key point to the per unit area yield of grain, especially for corn and wheat which account for a large proportion in grain production.By applying Stochastic Frontier Production Function Model (Battese and Coelli, 1995), this paper analyzed technical efficiency as well as its influencing factors of corn and wheat production, the two major crops in China, during the thirty years of reform and opening-up. This paper also explored the variation trend of technical efficiency of main grain crops in China. Meanwhile the paper compared the technical efficiency differences between different areas and searched the law of its development. On the other hand, based on the field survey in Zhoukou city, Henan province, the paper analyzed the technical efficiency of wheat production in Zhoukou city and its influencing factors in 2008 and 2009. Through the means of quantitative analysis, the paper studied the factors influencing technical efficiency of main grain corps in China and the way to improve it.By analyzing production elasticity of technical efficiency of corn and wheat, it was found that: firstly, in the 30 years since the reform and opening up, the technical efficiency of corn and wheat were respective 86% and 76%, additionally, the potentials of improvement of technical efficiency were respective 14% and 24%; secondly, the technical efficiency of corn showed fluctuant downward trend while the technical efficiency wheat presented fluctuant upward tendency; thirdly, there were obvious differences on technical efficiency of corn and wheat in each area. The technical efficiency of major grain-producing areas was higher than other areas’. What’s more, for the production of corn, the area of highest technical efficiency and the one of lowest technical efficiency were respective the northeast and the west and for the production of wheat, they were respective the east regions and the northeast regions; fourthly, the elasticities of input factors of corn and wheat were less than 1, which displayed that our production of corn and wheat was in the situation of decreasing returns to scale overall. Furthermore, the output elasticity of input of corn basically showed upward trend year by year, however, the output elasticity of input of wheat showed downward trend; fifthly, the increase of yield of per unit area of corn was due to technical progress. The increase of yield of per unit area of wheat was caused by technical progress and the promotion of technical efficiency.By analyzing the influencing factors of technical efficiency of corn and wheat, it concluded that for the production of corn, technical efficiency positively correlated to sown area of the crops per capital and proportion of effective irrigation, whereas, technical efficiency negatively correlated to hazard rate、GDP per capital and time-trend variables; for the production of wheat, technical efficiency positively correlated to proportion of effective irrigation、GDP per capital and time-trend variables while it negatively correlated hazard rate and sown area of the crops per capital.Based on sorting out the historical sequence of technical efficiency of corn and wheat and according to survey data of Zhou Kou in He Nan province, this paper analyzed the technical efficiency of wheat in Zhou Kou in the past two years, and then found that: firstly, Zhou Kou had a relatively high technical efficiency of wheat production and the average of technical efficiency was 83%, at the same, there are pronounced differences of technical efficiency in different county towns; secondly, the sum of output elasticity of wheat input in Zhou Kou was more than 1, which showed production of wheat in Zhou Kou was in the situation of increasing returns to scale overall; thirdly, among the influencing factors of technical efficiency of wheat production, farming proportion、whether wheat is main cultivated variety and hazard rate are significant influences while gender of householder、education year、sale proportion of wheat and family annual income had little influence to technical efficiency of wheat production.更多还原