【作者】 肖红波；

【导师】 王济民；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业科学院 ， 农业经济管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 猪粮安天下。改革开放以来,我国生猪业保持快速发展的趋势,同时生猪业发展也面临着重要的问题和挑战:生产波动一直比较频繁且近年来呈加剧趋势,生猪生产方式落后、生产效率不高,饲料、劳动力、土地、资金、环境等因素对生猪生产的制约日益凸现,这些问题将威胁着我国生猪业的长期稳定发展,而保障生猪业的长期稳定发展对提高农民收入、发展农村经济、保障国家食物安全和促进国民社会经济的协调发展具有重要的意义。本文重点对生猪生产增长和生产波动进行深入的研究,运用实证模型进行定量分析,并结合相关经济理论,揭示我国生猪生产增长的动因和造成波动的原因,为建立我国生猪业稳定发展的长效机制提供理论基础和技术参数,并提出针对性的政策建议。研究表明:1、要素投入量增长对产出的贡献接近50%。在投入要素中,2008年饲料产出弹性1.14,其仔猪产出弹性0.129,其他资本投入产出弹性0.033,劳动投入的产出弹性-0.073;规模弹性1.208。说明目前我国生猪生产仍处在粗放经营向集约经营转变的过程中,产出增长主要依靠增加物质投入数量的增加,饲料投入量的作用最明显,而劳动投入过多,养殖基础设施和技术服务落后,产出水平低,经营规模小对产出增长的不利,但另一方面我国生猪生产总体处于规模报酬递增阶段,规模化发展空间很大。2、全要素生产率(TFP)对产出的贡献达到50.87%。1980-2008年我国生猪业的TFP共增长了64.3%,年均增长率为2.29%;TFP增长呈现的波动性大的特点,说明我国生猪生产受多种因素如自然灾害和疫病等的影响,容易造成生产效率的下降;我国生猪业在不同的发展阶段,TFP增长率及其增长源泉也不相同,总体来说TFP的增长主要来源于规模效率和配置效率改进,技术进步相对缓慢,技术效率增长较小,甚至出现效率倒退。3、生猪供给反应表现为长期弹性大于短期弹性。在短期内,生产对价格的反应不敏感,生猪、饲料、仔猪和劳动力的价格需求弹性均是缺乏弹性的,相对来说,生猪价格和饲料价格对生产的影响较大,要素之间的相互影响比较明显。在长期内,生产对价格的反应十分敏感,影响生猪生产的主要因素是生猪价格、饲料价格和其他资本投入费用,要素之间的相互影响更强。4、我国生猪生产大致经历5个周期,平均周期长度为5.5年,平均波幅为8.3%。周期长度的变动范围在在3到9年之间;从波动幅度来看,大概在7%-9%之间,波长和波幅总体呈逐渐缩小的趋势。5、在生产波动的所有因素综合分析中,外部因素的影响大于内部因素,规模化和能繁母猪的影响大于价格的影响,二年时滞模型最佳。GDP增长率提高1个百分点,会引起第三年猪肉产量指数增加0.68;疫病D1的发生可导致第二年猪肉产量指数下降2.18;政策的实施会引起当年猪肉产量指数增加6.19;生猪价格指数上升1,会引起第二年猪肉产量指数上升0.09;第三年下降0.16;玉米价格指数上升1,会引起第三年猪肉产量指数上升0.13;能繁母猪数量指数增加1,可引起第四年猪肉产量指数同步增加0.23;规模化程度提高1,大致可引起猪肉产量指数连续3年分别下降0.15左右。对无时滞、一年、二年和三年时滞的这四个模型估计结果表明,二年时滞模型估计效果最佳,说明在各种因素发生变动时,二年以后对生产波动的综合影响最为显著,可以用于猪肉产量波动的预测分析。6、未来生猪业的稳定增长,应在加大政策支持和宏观调控的基础上,必须走依靠提高生产效率,发展适度规模化,创新产业化模式,倡导健康养殖的发展道路。保障生猪业稳定发展的具体建议是: 1、依靠科技进步,提高综合生产率。2、积极推进生产方式转变,促进生产持续增长。3、切实加强疫病防控,减少生产波动。4、继续加大政策支持力度,完善公共服务。5、建立养猪业行业市场预警体系,加强公共服务水平和能力。6、加强畜牧业宏观调控,保障生产稳定发展。本文创新点:一是研究方法和数据上的创新。本文重点采用定量分析方法,利用实证模型对有关问题进行了更深入细致的分析,区别与以前多数学者的采用定性研究;运用的1980-2008近30年共25个省的面板数据,信息丰富,具有代表性、时效性。二是结论上或观点上的创新。1.运用随机前沿模型对首次尝试把生猪业的TFP分解为技术进步、技术效率、规模效率和配置效率四个部分,并计算出各种投入要素的产出弹性。2.采用约束利润函数模型,计算出投入产出价格的长期弹性和短期弹性,区分不同时期的生猪供给反应程度。3.对影响波动的主要因素进行了细致的分类,在定量分析时加入时滞期变量,使对波动分析更加全面,接近现实。更多还原

【Abstract】 Pig and food are essential for Chinese residents in the long-time. Since reform and opening of the market, China’s pig production has developed rapidly, while faces major problems and challenges . In recent years,pig producing has fluctuated frequently in China and that become more dramatic. This is because of the constraints on pig production appeared such as backward mode of pig production, inefficient of production, as well as feed, labor, land, capital, and environmental factors. Therefore, it is significant to insure pig sector develope steadily in a long run. This article studied the growth and fluctuation of pig production in detail. Both econometric models and corresponding theories were used to reveal reasons of growth and fluctuation of pig production, so as to provide theories and technology parameters, and put forward policy recommendations aimed at the problems.Some conclusions could be drawn are as follows:(1) The input factors of hog make contributions about 50% to its output growth. The output elasticity of feed, piglets, labor and other capital inputs are respectively 1.14, 0.129,- 0.073 and 0.033, and the scale elasticity 1.208 in 2008. That Shows pig production has been experiencing the transformation from the extensive to intensive operation in which the number of material inputs is the main source of hog production growth. Among input factors, feed did greater contribution to the output of pig than others , labor was used in excessive, and breeding infrastructure and technical services were also poor.In addition, the scale elasticity above 1 impied increasing return to scale in China.(2) The total factor productivity (TFP) in pig industry contributed 50.87% towards pig output. From 1980 to 2008, the TFP increased 64.3%, with average growth of 2.29% per year. On the other hand, the TFP changed with high volatility that means that pig production is affected by many factors such as natural disasters and animal epidemics which could cause a decline in productivity. The rate and sources of TFP growth varied with different stages of development in hog industry. As a whole , scale of TFP growth mainly came from improved efficiency and allocative efficiency. Technical advances was relatively slow, and technical efficiency made a little progress, even a regression in some times.(3) The supply response in hog sector is characterized by the long-term flexibility larger than short-term flexibility. In the short term, hog production is not sensitive to the price, because both supply elasticity of pigs and demand elasticity of feed, piglets and labor are less than 1. Relatively prices of pig and feed made greater impact on pig production . The interaction in input factors was obvious. In the long run, hog production is sensitive to the price ,the main factors affecting pig production are the hog prices, feed prices and other capital investment costs. The interaction in input factor was more obvious than in short term.(4) China’s pig production has gone through five fluctuating cycles, with the average cycle of 5.5 years and the average volatility of 8.3%. The period length change between 3 and 9 years , and the volatility between 7% and 9% . The cycles length and range of the fluctuating were gradually reduced(5) In all factors affecting the fluctuations of hog output , the influence of external factors was much more than internal factors, and the influence of scale level and sow quantity more than prices, and the model with 2 year delay was best. GDP growth rate increased by 1 % will cause pork output index to rise by 0.68 of the third year. Incidence of the disease can lead to decline 2.18 in pork production index of the second year ,and implementation of the policy will lead to raise by 6.19 in pork production index. Pig price index increased by 1 will cause pork production index to rise by 0.09 of the second year. Corn price index increased by 1 will cause pork production index to rise by 0.13 of the third year . Sow qualitity index increased by 1 can lead to pork production index to rise by 0.23 of fourth year. Scale level increased by 1 can lead to pork production index to drop 0.15 of consecutive 3 years . Estimate results of four models with free, one, two, and three year delayed showed that the model with two time delayed was the best, then it could be used for forecast of pork production volatility.(6) The future development of pig industry has to depend on improving productivity, moderate scale, innovating mode of industrialization, promoting healthy culture based on the government’s assistant and macro-control.The specific suggestion are as follows:1. Improve the overall productivity by scientific-technical progress;2. Actively promote the production mode and the sustained growth of production;3. Strengthen disease prevention and control to reduce production fluctuations;4.further greatly policy support and improve public services;5.Establish early warning system of the pig industry and upgrate the public service level and capacity;6. Strengthen livestock macro-control and protect the stable development of production.The innovation of this paper are as listed below: 1. This paper focused on quantitative analysis method, make depth and detailed analysis of the relevant concerns with an empirical model,which is distinction with the previous qualitative research made by Most scholars;2. This paper used the panel data of 25 provinces in 1980-2008,which made the information rich, representative and timely;3. This paper first decomposed hog industry TFP into technological progress, technical efficiency, scale efficiency and allocative efficiency by using stochastic frontier model, and got the output elasticity of various input ;4. Calculate long-term flexibility and short-term flexibility of the input demand and pig supply of by using Constrained Profit Function model,and distinguish the degree different supply response of live pigs during different times;5.Classify the main factors affecting the fluctuations detailly and add demurrage variable to quantitative analysis ,which made the analysis of the fluctuation more comprehensive and closer to reality with.更多还原