【作者】 韩洁；

【导师】 王东阳；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业科学院 ， 农业经营管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 收入问题,是农民过上小康生活的首要问题,对粮食主产区种粮农民尤为重要。在把握全国农民增收概况的基础上,把粮食主产区农民增收作为本文研究重点,构建出以农民收入补贴及增长目标、收入来源效果、影响因素作用为框架的模型,借鉴美国相关政策和实践,应用要素收入理论,运用基尼系数分解、通径分析、指数平滑等方法,对全国及粮食主产区的农民收入和补贴状况作相关分析,探讨我国粮食主产区农民增收路径。主要结论如下:1、家庭经营纯收入和工资性收入是当前及未来农民人均纯收入两大来源,随着收入增长其各自份额有增有降。据测算,1993-2008年,家庭经营纯收入是全国农民人均纯收入首要来源,粮食主产区尤其如此、比重较高(江苏除外);预测到2020年,工资性收入将取代家庭经营纯收入位居首位(包括河北、辽宁、江苏、湖南、四川5个粮食主产区)。2、以补贴为主体的转移性收入将上升成为粮食主产区农民增收的重要份额。据预测,到2020年,转移性收入将占全国农民人均纯收入的12.62%,其中,内蒙古、黑龙江、四川3个粮食主产区将占20%以上。3、粮食主产区家庭经营收入和以补贴为主体的转移性收入稳定增长,是缩小与经济发达地区农民收入差距的关键来源;尤其是工资性收入的增长,在未来将成为缩小收入差距的突破口。4、据模型分析,农用机械总动力、化肥施用量、农产品生产价格、耕地面积、谷物单产与农业收入呈正相关关系,对农业收入的直接通径系数依次为0.836、0.521、0.233、0.189和0.016,但耕地面积的间接通径系数为-1.112,说明耕地面积对农业收入增长存在制约;农资价格、家庭经营费用支出与农业收入呈负相关关系,对农业收入的直接通径系数分别为-0.002和-0.392,说明降低成本支出对增收有直接作用。5、城镇化率与工资性收入呈正相关关系,对工资性收入的直接通径系数为0.781;城镇登记失业率和第一产业就业人员比重与工资性收入呈负相关关系,对工资性收入的直接通径系数分别为-0.111和-0.331。说明推进城镇化、加大农村劳动力转移就业对农民增收具有持久效力。6、预测到2020年,按常态增长趋势,全国农民人均纯收入增速可能放缓、不能如期实现全面小康目标;但粮食主产区中有12个可以如期或者超前实现全面小康目标,只有河南不能如期实现。对策建议如下:一是鼓励农村劳动力转岗就业创业,促进工资性收入提高,充分发挥工资性收入对粮食主产区农民增收的带动作用。二是以优质为导向,稳定粮食播种面积,提高粮食单产,节本降耗,以稳定家庭经营收入,提高粮食主产区种粮收益,确保粮食安全。三是鼓励土地经营权合法自愿流转,培育专业种粮大户,实现规模经营。四是提高农民生产经营组织化程度,发展粮食加工业,延长产业链。五是建立农业补贴与粮食价格联结机制,增加种粮农民补贴。更多还原

【Abstract】 The most important problem for farmers especially for the farmers who grow grains in major grain-producing areas to live a well-off life is to increase their incomes. Based on further understanding on increasing of farmers’income across the nation, this paper mainly focused on the farmers in major grain-producing areas. The main research objectives in this study are to examine the situation of farmers’income in major grain-producing areas, to analyze the effect of subsidy on grain-producing farmers. This research constructed models of farmers’income & subsidy, growth target, effect of each income source on farmers’net income and factor analysis, and learned from the experience of the United States of America. The methodologies in this research are factor income theory, Gini coefficient analysis, path analysis, exponential smoothing and others. The purpose of this study is to find the way to help farmers in major grain-producing areas to increase their incomes.The main results of this study are:1. The two biggest sources of income of farmers are net income from household operations and wages income at present and in the near future. According to calculation, from 1993 to 2008, the biggest income of farmers across the nation was net income from household operations. It shared a higher proportion in major grain-producing areas (except Jiangsu province). According to prediction, wages income will become the highest income source in rural area by 2020 (including Hebei, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Hunan and Sichuan).2. Transfer income based on subsidy will share a higher proportion in farmers’income. According to forecasts, until 2020, 12.62% of the net income will be transfer income. Besides, the transfer income will account for more than 20% of farmers’net income in Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang and Sichuan.3. It becomes a key source to narrow the income gap between farmers from the developed regions and the major grain-producing areas that transfer income which based on subsidy and net income from household operations increase stably. On the other hand, wages income also play an important role in increase of farmers’income and will become a breach to narrow the income gap in the near future.4. According to the results of the econometrics model, the usage of machine, fertilizer, the price of agricultural products, the area of arable land, yield of grain and the income from farming are positively correlated, the direct path coefficients are 0.836, 0.521, 0.233, 0.189 and 0.016, respectively. However, the indirect path coefficient of area of arable land is -1.112, which implied that arable land constraint farming income. Price of input, expenditure for household business and farming income are negatively correlated, the direct path coefficients are -0.002 and -0.392, respectively. It showed that reduce the cost may help to increase the income directly.5. Urbanization and wages income are positively correlated, the direct path coefficient is 0.781; the registered unemployment rate in Urban areas, the proportion of employed persons in primary industry and wages income are negatively correlated, the direct path coefficients are -0.111 and -0.331, respectively. It implied that improvement of urbanization and labor transfer from rural areas can help increase the farmers’income sustainably.6. The expected result is that the speed of increasing of farmers’income might slow down, and goal of well-off society might not be achieved. However, the expected goal of well-off society in rural areas might be achieved in most major grain-producing areas except Henan province.According to the results, some policy recommendations are given:First, to encourage the labor in rural areas transfer to other industries can help farmers to increase their net income, which can increase the wages income.Second, to use improved grain varieties can help farmers to raise the unit yield and save cost, so that farmers can increase their net income from household operations. And it is meaningful to ensure the food security.Third, to encourage the transfer of arable land management can help foster professional farmers who manage more arable lands, improve large scale of farms, and achieve economies of scale.Forth, to improve the level of farmers’organization and to encourage more deep processing industry can help to complete the whole industry.Fifth, to conduct a complete mechanism of grain price policy and agricultural subsidy system is meaningful, so that the subsidy on farmers can be increased.更多还原