【作者】 韩巍；

【导师】 王东阳；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业科学院 ， 农业经营管理， 2010， 博士

【摘要】 近些年来,我国农业投资的绝对数量在逐年增加,但农业投资总量与农业的基础性地位、以及农业对国民经济的贡献相比还有较大差距,农业投资的结构也不尽合理。本研究紧密结合当前农业农村经济发展实际和未来趋向,综合运用多种定量和定性分析方法,从多个视角重点分析了新时期我国农业投资规模与结构问题,有针对性地提出有关政策建议,为今后国家编制有关规划和制定农业投资相关政策提供参考依据。主要研究内容包括:①系统总结了我国农业投资的近况、问题和效果,并通过计量分析,按照新时期全面建设小康社会的要求,预测了2020年的农业投资规模需求。②在农业投资的主体结构方面,总结了近期各类主体农业投资基本情况,分析了近期农民收入、农业投资和生活消费的变化与相互影响,定量分析了利率和农民收入变化对农业贷款的影响,并预测了未来主要投资主体的农业投资规模。③在农业投资的地区结构方面,通过对不同行政区域和经济区域农业投资量的分析,找出对其影响的主要因素,提出了未来区域农业投资的原则与主要方向。④在农业投资的行业结构和技术结构方面,揭示了未来农业内部各行业的投资重点与方向,分析了我国农业固定资产投资的规模及其调整、优化的方向。主要研究结果包括:①目标预测方面,据测算,我国农业投资总量相对不足,增幅不稳定,投资效益在衰减。为达到2020年人均GDP比2000年翻两番的目标,届时农业投资至少应达到5万多亿元,是2007年的2.2倍。②主要问题及制约因素:在不同投资主体中,农户投入下降,农村金融供给长期缺位,政府投资严重不足,农村集体经济组织投资动机弱,农业利用外资的空间非常有限;农业投资地区结构存在着明显的东多西少的不均衡性特性,耕地面积大、农业人口多、农村居民人均收入低的中西部省(区、市)发展现代农业面临更多的挑战;根据未来农产品消费结构变化趋势分析,畜牧业投资需求会更大;农业固定资产投资的增长相对缓慢且结构不尽合理。③主要措施建议:为满足未来农业投资增长需要,应稳定农民农业投入、继续加强政府农业投资、大幅度提高农业贷款规模。对于中西部地区,要充分发挥本区域农业的优势与特色,因地制宜地选择现代农业发展方向与农业投资重点。根据农业内部各产业发展需要,农业投资应有重点地向畜牧业适当倾斜。国家需大幅度加大农业固定资产投资,并提高直接用于改善农业生产条件的投资比重。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years,the absolute amount of agricultural investment has increased year by year. However, there is still a large gap between the total agricultural investment and the contribution of agriculture, serving as a basic role in the national economy. The internal structure of agricultural investment is also to be optimized. By closely combining current agricultural realities in the rural economic development with the future trend, comprehensively using various quantitative and qualitative analysis, this study mainly analyzes the investment scale and structure of China’s agriculture in the new era from multiple perspectives and puts forward with related policies to help make the future planning and development of the agricultural investment policies on a scientific basis.The major researches are as follows:①Systematically summarize the recent development, issues and results of China’s agricultural investment, and in accordance with the new requirements of comprehensive construction of well-off society in the new era, and estimate the demand for the agricultural investment through the quantitative analysis in 2020.②In the main structure of agricultural investment, summarize the recent basic conditions of various major agricultural investments, study the recent changes and interaction of farmers’ incomes, agricultural investment and consumption, quantificationally analyze the impact of changes in interest rates and farmers’ incomes on agricultural loans, and forecast the major agricultural investment size in the future.③In the regional structure of agricultural investment, identify the major factors that influence the amount of agricultural investment in different administrative and economic regions through the analysis and give principles and main directions of the regional agricultural investment in the future.④In the industry and technological structure of agricultural investment, reveal the focus and direction of investment in various sectors across agriculture and predict the scale of investment in fixed assets of China’s agriculture and direction of its adjustment and optimization.The major results of the study are as follows:①The target forecast. The insufficient investment and unsteady increase in China’s agriculture is forecast to lead to a decrease in investment returns. In order to achieve the goal that the per capita GDP of the year 2020 quadruples that of the year 2000, investment in agriculture will be at least more than RMB 5,000 billion, 2.2 times that of 2007.②Major problems and restraining factors. Among the various investors, investment from farmers is decreasing; the financial supply in rural areas is of long-standing absence; government investment is a serious deficiency; investment motive of rural collective economic organizations is weak, and there is a small space for foreign capital utilization in the agriculture. In addition, the regional structure of investment in agriculture obviously presents that the feature of the investment distribution appears on a diminishing scale form east to west. The central and western provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities), with a large cultivated land, with a great agricultural population and low per capita income of rural residents, face great challenges of developing modern agriculture. According to the future trend of the consumption structure of agricultural products, there will be a growing demand for investment in livestock industry, in spite of the fact that the investment in fixed assets of agriculture is growing relatively slowly and its structure is irrational.③Major suggestions for measures to be taken. In order to meet the need of the future investment in agriculture, we should stabilize the agricultural investment from farmers and continue to encourage government to increase agricultural investment as well as the scale of agricultural loans by a big margin. Central and western regions should give full play to the advantages and characteristics of its local agriculture. According to the development of various industries in the agriculture, the focus of agricultural investment should appropriately tilt to the livestock industry. China should significantly enlarge the investment in the fixed assets of agriculture and improve conditions for agricultural production by directly increasing the proportion of investment.更多还原